I've never understood the concept of the edge...

[lbranjord]

To me, an edge is anything that cuts more than 50% of the time. If you can win 51% of the time or your money management makes you win overall, even with mostly losers, that's your edge. It may be a dorky term, but it's pretty simple to define.

There's no guarantee in anything, not even waking up tomorrow, so why worry about that?

Edit: I see what you're getting at. If you think of EDGE as something that you know that others don't, you're probably right, on retail level it doesn't really exist. We all have the same sword. Now I get where you were going.

 

[Triggerfish]

Casinos have an edge, thats why they are in business! but the real question is can you analysis it and understand it, if you can't understand it, you have learned nothing from it.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Casinos have an edge, thats why they are in business! but the real question is can you analysis it and understand it, if you can't understand it, you have learned nothing from it.

Casino's edge is simple. They offer games where the odds are stacked against the player ( 0.5-1/37 at best) and they have an endless queue of mugs to keep the machine churning. As I've said before if my memory serves me correctly they operate on 2.5-3% of whatever is on the table over the year. There is nothing else to learn you just have to understand the odds of your play.

Also, the casino-trading analogy doesn't hold weight for me as it would suggest that the exchange or liquidity providers or brokers, as the case may be, are "the house" when their profits don't come directly from your losses do they? It's a bit too lazy for me that one. As far as I'm aware the sum of all participation (or lack of) defines prices so if prices drop... wait there I've just thought of a new question I need to ask.

 

[luckyd1976]

Casino's edge is simple. They offer games where the odds are stacked against the player ( 0.5-1/37 at best) and they have an endless queue of mugs to keep the machine churning. As I've said before if my memory serves me correctly they operate on 2.5-3% of whatever is on the table over the year. There is nothing else to learn you just have to understand the odds of your play.

American style Roulette
$1,000. Stake
bet $5 on the 13-24 and $5 on the 25-36 outside 2/3rds

By betting both you have a 63% 24/38 chance of winning per spin. Now the key problem is the losses are x2 than the wins. So each loss, you must times by 3 the chip count to offset the x2 losses.

Example
first bet 5 each---loss
2nd bet 15 each---loss
3rd bet 45 each---loss
4th bet 135each---loss
Walk away

It can withstand 4 straight losses against the 63% winning spin rate. If you win reset back to the $5 per bet.

 

[arabianights]

So what?

 

[scose-no-doubt]

That's two bets on one outcome. Odds per bet are still <.5
As for martingaling your way back to win, why do you think they came up with table limits?

 

[luckyd1976]

That's two bets on one outcome. Odds per bet are still <.5
As for martingaling your way back to win, why do you think they came up with table limits?

I know (not trying to highjack the thread) but just wanted to share some fun casino techniques that work for me.I'll take the 63.1% per spin odds

 

[luckyd1976]

Trading Edge

No such thing.

Do not for one second think that anyone of your strategies are original. There are many hedge funds out there employing each and every one of our techniques.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

63.1% chance of 50% return? That's too risky and uncertain for me. I prefer entering trades for 100% certainty of loss.

 

[luckyd1976]

63.1% chance of 50% return? That's too risky and uncertain for me. I prefer entering trades for 100% certainty of loss.

(Trading) You picked the right arena

 

[montmorencyt2w]

I do kind of believe in the concept of an edge, although I think it is incredibly hard to pin down and define.

I don't think it matters too much if the hedge funds etc. know all the angles. Their priorities and those of the other big boys are quite different from those of a small retail player. So long as you keep out of their way and don't try to fight them (clearly you can't), there is no real competition going on there.

If you can follow in their wake and pick up some of the sizeable crumbs left behind, you should still have a good feed.

 

[luckyd1976]

I don't think it matters too much if the hedge funds etc. know all the angles. Their priorities and those of the other big boys are quite different from those of a small retail player. So long as you keep out of their way and don't try to fight them (clearly you can't), there is no real competition going on there.

If you can follow in their wake and pick up some of the sizeable crumbs left behind, you should still have a good feed.

True Im more curious as to why so many people are like, "I cant reveal the magicians secret" or "its top secret I could tell you but I'ld have to kill you"

Others trading my strategies doesnt affect whether I can pay my bills.