is 100% return each year realistic?

[meanreversion]

At present I am not able to concentrate on trading , due to developing this automated system.The accounts are live and funded.

I spent a couple of months building a trading robot, during which time I didn't post on t2w once.

The reason you're not able to concentrate on your demo trading or developing your system is because you keep posting here, you jackass.

 

[oildaytrader]

I spent a couple of months building a trading robot, during which time I didn't post on t2w once.

The reason you're not able to concentrate on your demo trading or developing your system is because you keep posting here, you jackass.

Mr failed trader.

The reason you building a robot is you can't trade.I can trade but I don't have enough time to do three jobs.Mercenary trading requires 100 % concentration.How many idiots will survive a shark tank doing two other jobs?

What kinda robot does a failure make?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Stpehen, your math and resaoning eskewed.
$4 per day for 250 days is $1,000. There is no compunding a set dollar amount per day (In your case, pounds). If your boss is paying you a wage, and you make $15 per hour at 8 hours per day, you are making $120 per day.
Now, if you want to refer to a percentage, like 4% per day, then that it is different, but even then your numbers are way off. If you do 4% per day, everyday for 250 days, you will have 18,127 times what you started with.
Here's a twist. This is why 100% per month is much more practical than 4% per day. 4% per day is off the charts. Many will say I have done 4% per day lots of times. That's true, but we are now talking 4% per day eveyday. 20% per week is much more practical. 100% per month is more practical than 4% per day.

£4 a day for 250 days will double £1,000. as per the thread.

£400 per day will double £100k if you can get the fills and keep your head at £100 per point.

 

[4xpipcounter]

There is not much margin for error and a lot of work just for £4 (cut-n-paste).

Wait a minute, you might do 100 trades in a day and net make £4? I think you're making a lot more money for your broker than you are for yourself!!

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

hi pip

my point was that if on the first of jan 2011 the guy who started this post started with 'x' thousand pounds in a trading account.

set his bet size for the whole year (i didn't make this clear) of £1pp for every £1,000 in their account he could achieve his by making an average net profit of 4 pips each day, for example, on the ftse 100.

this holds true and was all i was suggesting.

if on the 1st of jan 2012 he wanted to double his betsize and could average the same 4 points per day he once again could double his account.

i think this can work up to a certain bet size, i reckon around £100 for practical reasons but the limitations will be with the trader. i find it hard to keep my head when trading more than £30 per point intraday.

there is no idea of compounding other than at the end of each year.

this is very slow and steady and i believe achievable. of course if you're making £4 per day you need a job too.

the post title is: is 100% return each year realistic?

my post is saying yes, and this is one way to achieve it.

 

[4xpipcounter]

That 15,000% per year is just a tad under 4% per day. As I mentioned in the other post 100% per month is much more practical than 4% per day.

Great mercenary traders can make 15,000% a year. Year 1 I have £10k, by the end of year 2 I have £225mio.

Uh huh.

 

[meanreversion]

Mr failed trader.

The reason you building a robot is you can't trade.I can trade but I don't have enough time to do three jobs.Mercenary trading requires 100 % concentration.How many idiots will survive a shark tank doing two other jobs?

What kinda robot does a failure make?

Er.. so you're "working hard" on a new automated system, alongside running 40 other systems, or whatever you claim, and see no purpose to robots? So, aside from posting 30 times a day on t2w, you must spend all your time entering orders from signals generated by your systems?

In essence, you don't really know what you're talking about, do you? You use English words when you type, and they loosely form what might be construed as sentences, but they have no connection with sense or reality.

 

[meanreversion]

That 15,000% per year is just a tad under 4% per day. As I mentioned in the other post 100% per month is much more practical than 4% per day.

100% per month might be achievable for a few months on a small account (under £10k) if the trader also has a well paid job. That way, they can simply replenish their account when the losses inevitably occur.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Exactly, I was actually using that as a comparison to the 4% per day.
I've done 100% per month several times, but what I don't do is make goals for a certain percentage. My goals in trading is to stay steady, keep level-headed, regardless of how things are going, adhere, constantly to entering and exiting principles, as well as margining, and then just let the chips fall where they may.
What also helps the mental part of trading for me is that I have backup liquid capital. In other words, my life savings is not the equity in my trading account. That also helps.
Well paid job? Trading is a well paid job--lol. (I knew what you were referring to.)

100% per month might be achievable for a few months on a small account (under £10k) if the trader also has a well paid job. That way, they can simply replenish their account when the losses inevitably occur.

 

[Hoggums]

Aim for 15,000% a year and you will end up one of the 95% who don't make it. Guaranteed.

Keep you head in the clouds if you want to. 15,000% requires you to be lucky. Extremely lucky actually. And you'll need to be lucky every year for the rest of your life if you want to trade full time.

If your backtests are returning this amount then they are not realistic.

Aim for something sensible.

 

[meanreversion]

If a backtest is returning that figure, it's the result of a "postdictive" error. In other words, you're allowing your backtest to see into the future. It's a common problem with Metastock.

 

[meanreversion]

Exactly, I was actually using that as a comparison to the 4% per day.
I've done 100% per month several times, but what I don't do is make goals for a certain percentage.

I really have no idea what your account size is or anything else.. but 100% a month a few times.. sounds awesome, but surely you've had some fairly atrocious months as well? Isn't that the law of averages??

 

[4xpipcounter]

Quite frankly, I'm having an atrocious time at it now. I have 4 trades up, and they are all losing. My view on that is that it is not the journey that counts, but the final destination. That final destination is when I hit "close" on the posiiton.
Therefore, there are times that seem to be harder than others, but even though that is the case, I've had one losing week in the last 3 years (Based on closed positions.), and no losing months in the last 3 years. My methodology is unorthodox, but effective for me.
I also have equi-amount in liquid assets, which also allows me to be a little more agressive than I otherwise would be. If something really messes up, or I find another pair I want to trade, I can throw additional funds at my account. With that security, it allows to be a little more patient, stay in trades longer, and not get in a flux when things are going as they are now with my live trades.
Another thing I do is that when things are not going as well as other times (like now), I stop trading. This is a time I can surney, kick back, and study the markets more. It is a time for more free time, because is not being taken up with looking for the next trade setup. Life is still good when 4 trades are going against me. When they recover, and I cash them out for wins, then it will be back to business-as-usual.
I think it is not a good thing to want to get back at the markets. I'm the boss, but the markets are still bigger than me. This is why it is important to just take a deep breath when things don't go well, and add just a little more ice to my veins.
So, yes, it is the law of averages to have a lot of months at 100%, and to have some not so good months melted in. If a person says they never have any down times in trading, they're lying. By "down", I mean along the lines we're talking, and not emotionally.

I really have no idea what your account size is or anything else.. but 100% a month a few times.. sounds awesome, but surely you've had some fairly atrocious months as well? Isn't that the law of averages??

 

[oildaytrader]

Aim for 15,000% a year and you will end up one of the 95% who don't make it. Guaranteed.

Keep you head in the clouds if you want to. 15,000% requires you to be lucky. Extremely lucky actually. And you'll need to be lucky every year for the rest of your life if you want to trade full time.

If your backtests are returning this amount then they are not realistic.

Aim for something sensible.

Good advice for the new traders and learners reading on this board.I would highly hope they follow your advice.

I doubt if the geniuses will even bother with boards.

 

[oildaytrader]

100% per month might be achievable for a few months on a small account (under £10k) if the trader also has a well paid job. That way, they can simply replenish their account when the losses inevitably occur.

Novice experience being splattered everywhere.

 

[4xpipcounter]

BTW, the journey ended splendidly. All but one of the trades were closed, and I am up 18% for the week on a bad week.

Quite frankly, I'm having an atrocious time at it now. I have 4 trades up, and they are all losing. My view on that is that it is not the journey that counts, but the final destination. That final destination is when I hit "close" on the posiiton.
Therefore, there are times that seem to be harder than others, but even though that is the case, I've had one losing week in the last 3 years (Based on closed positions.), and no losing months in the last 3 years. My methodology is unorthodox, but effective for me.
I also have equi-amount in liquid assets, which also allows me to be a little more agressive than I otherwise would be. If something really messes up, or I find another pair I want to trade, I can throw additional funds at my account. With that security, it allows to be a little more patient, stay in trades longer, and not get in a flux when things are going as they are now with my live trades.
Another thing I do is that when things are not going as well as other times (like now), I stop trading. This is a time I can surney, kick back, and study the markets more. It is a time for more free time, because is not being taken up with looking for the next trade setup. Life is still good when 4 trades are going against me. When they recover, and I cash them out for wins, then it will be back to business-as-usual.
I think it is not a good thing to want to get back at the markets. I'm the boss, but the markets are still bigger than me. This is why it is important to just take a deep breath when things don't go well, and add just a little more ice to my veins.
So, yes, it is the law of averages to have a lot of months at 100%, and to have some not so good months melted in. If a person says they never have any down times in trading, they're lying. By "down", I mean along the lines we're talking, and not emotionally.

 

[Splitlink]

Everything is possible, so they say. If you have little capital you may be forced to trade with a large amount of it at risk. If you are fortunate you will get over that very dangerous stage. On the principle that "double or nothng" eventually ends in a wipe out my advice is to reduce that percentage to give you the "true" amount in absolute terms, with which you need to live. IOW, reduce the porcentage as the capital increases.

 

[meanreversion]

BTW, the journey ended splendidly. All but one of the trades were closed, and I am up 18% for the week on a bad week.

If you consider +18% in a week to be a bad week, you are in a class of one.

 

[LiamH]

Why, if someone asks about a mathematical possibility, does everyone reply with regard to psychology?

Psychology is personal, when wondering whether 100% or whatever per year is possible the answer is purely mathematical.

Assuming you make 6000 pips per year (depending on strat but I'm going for a realistic ballpark figure) from a $1000 account at 50c per point you will make $3000 profit per year. Assuming a 100 point stop on average that is 5% risk per trade. This is 5x leverage on the whole account or you could call it 25x leverage and have the available margin to run 5 positions at a time.

That is a 300% return WITHOUT compounding and without using so much leverage that you are guaranteed to blow the account. 5% risk per trade might well show some large drawdowns but it is up to the individual to decide wether or not they can cope with that. Ultimately this is just an example, you could risk 2.5% and still make 150% profit per year.

Mathematically 100% per year from a small leveraged account is an absolute piece of cake and anyone who says otherwise is not speaking sense. The psychology and strategy for getting there is a different matter and is up to the individual.

 

[Splitlink]

Why, if someone asks about a mathematical possibility, does everyone reply with regard to psychology?

Psychology is personal, when wondering whether 100% or whatever per year is possible the answer is purely mathematical.

Assuming you make 6000 pips per year (depending on strat but I'm going for a realistic ballpark figure) from a $1000 account at 50c per point you will make $3000 profit per year. Assuming a 100 point stop on average that is 5% risk per trade. This is 5x leverage on the whole account or you could call it 25x leverage and have the available margin to run 5 positions at a time.

That is a 300% return WITHOUT compounding and without using so much leverage that you are guaranteed to blow the account. 5% risk per trade might well show some large drawdowns but it is up to the individual to decide wether or not they can cope with that. Ultimately this is just an example, you could risk 2.5% and still make 150% profit per year.

Mathematically 100% per year from a small leveraged account is an absolute piece of cake and anyone who says otherwise is not speaking sense. The psychology and strategy for getting there is a different matter and is up to the individual.

Mathematically 100% per year is a piece of cake, as you say, but it depends on the level that you are starting from. 1+1=2= 100%. The higher the capital base the more difficult it gets. Are you willing to trade 50,000 or 100,000 with the expectation of getting 100% profit out of it per year? That is where the psychology comes into it because that capital could be all that the trader has.

This is where these threads get dangerous for newcomers.

Regardless of the "pie-in-the-sky" advice from those old enough to know better newcomers should know that this futures business is the biggest jungle there is.

It, really, does **** me off to read about all these percentage profits that are available to everyone who knows just the basics of arithmetic because those who are not vendors here should be setting an example.

I used to be one of those who thought that everyone should be able to take care of his money, but now I don't. There are too many poor *******s out there who are desperate to make ends meet and find this one way to do it.