TWI said:
I do not think that military action is imminent with Iran. I do however understand their motive for capturing the British sailors and Marines. Internationally they need to convince their potential aggressors that they will respond to any interference in their countries affairs. This sends a signal that they are not intimidated by the threat of military action and shows on a small scale that they are prepared to respond.
I believe that military action against Iran would be a huge disaster for initially the middle east but ultimately would take us down the road of an escalating and unstoppable global conflict. I am keeping my fingers crossed that the neocons have lost enough influence to allow more sane people to prevent any plans to send in the stealth bombers.
I would say this event shouldn't escallate but... it is exactly the kind of provocation the US has been prodding for. Couple of other points; the UN vote on Iran yesterday, and also there was a vote in the US about pulling troops out of Iraq. Democrats have won. Bush says he will veto the bill.
So the big question will the Bush war machine attack? No I don't think so. I hope not. But if it doesn't do something it will lose credibility. US has been arresting Iranian diplomats. Virtually closed down Iranian Embassy equivalent. Also been arresting people crossing the border from Iran to Iraq.
PS I think we should take UN out of NY if US is refusing to give visas to Iranians. UN supposed to be international territory.
Here is my analysis...
Before Iraq War
Saddam was an American ally as we all know. He only turned againts the US when he found out the Americans were supporting him against Iran but at the same time supplying Iranians with arms and weapons and sending the money to the contra rebels fighting the popullar Sandanists in Nicaragua at the time. Remember Colonel North and President Ragan fiasco?
Saddam bluffed he still had WMD to maintain his strength and make his enemies think twice. US intelligence way out of date. They supplied Iraq with the weapons but got fooled by the idiot (Saddam) who wanted the maintain the threat. Remember US was happy to supply the WMD to Iraq and allow it to be used against the Iranians. Not only that US supplied satellite intelligence on Iranian troop movements and imminent attacks. They were also quite indifferent about Iraq using it on the Kurds. Don't remember much of an outcry after the US left the Kurds high and dry along with the Shias, once they decided to leave they didn't want to defend their old allies. Now shameless politicians making cheap political capital about defending the free civilised world form these monsters like Saddam.
Apparently, also in some quarters (Dick Cheney), after the war in Afghanistan, US blood lust was not satisfied. They wanted the terrorists (Islamic world) humiliated. Islam is a peaceful religeon and wrong to throw in billions of people in the same basket as some CIA trained terrorists (Assuming Osama Bin Laden is the culprit).
Reasons for war
1. humilliation of the ME and show of US muscle. Payback for 9/11. This also had good political capital in US. Americans still believe they attacked us first story - when you talk about the Iraq war.
2. capture of Iraqi oil fields, remaining 1/3 to 1/2 worlds supply
3. at a later stage take on Syria and Iran - axis of evil, comply or else - flex muscle.
4. by destabilising Iran, disrupt Chinas oil supply
5. oil price goes through the stratosphere but US get it for free
6. US already has presence in Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Caspian energy fields also in control. Iran virtually sorrounded with Iraq taken over.
Problems
1. WMD - US Intelligence way out of date and old assumptions not verified.
2. Democracy - US calculations foolish. Iraq 55% Shia pro Iranian. Who did they think they were handing Iraq over to? That's what I call dumb ass planning...
3. Post War planning non existant. Rumsfeld a Hitler of a man in denial about his abilities. Listens to no one. Control freak. Still believes we don't understand and his the only one who does.
What Next
1. US is flexing muscle. If it can't fight and win in Iraq then hardly any chance of winning againts Iran highly trained, well supplied and backed by Russia and China.
2. US and Israel currently supplying and training Kurdish terrorist group PJAK to attack Iran.
(Where have we seen this before where US/CIA train recognised terrorists to attack countries they designate as enemies). Do they seriously believe some minor Kurdish terrorist organisation is going to bring down the Iranian government? No. But it's going to get a lot of Kurds killed but they don't know it yet.
3. Kurdish problem was first raised by the Shah or Iran, Henry Kissinger's idea to aid the Kurds to fight for autonomy in Iraq.
4. Kurds have always sided with any power that comes along and promises them some crumbs and they turn treacherously against the people of the land they live with.
5. US is planning a referendum on Kirkuk and make it a Kurdish city. With Mosul and Kerkuk US will have the major two oil fields in Iraq and via pipelines through Turkey syphon off the oil. 70% going to multinational oil companies (US & UK obviously) and 30% to the Iraqi people (70% of 30% going to Kurds first and the remaining crumbs to running Iraqi administration.
6. US will support the Kurds and take the oil. They couldn't give two hoots about the Sunnies or Shias. Let them fight their civil war. Always was the plan. (Remember UK SAS civilian dressed soldiers arrested by the Iraqi police with C4 bomb making equipment in the trunk of their car where tanks had to go in to get them out of the police station.) Any explanation. No. Devide and conquer. Let the people kill them selves whilst we take their oil.
These are facts on the ground. Not hype or hear say. It's plain to everyone, this is a pure outright plan to hijack Iraqi oil. 600,000 dead and Iraq devastated no matter to the US. I reckon they should be made to pay compensation for their criminal acts.
There are more problems like Saudies not being happy with Shia influence and Iranian power so now they are trying to bring the Sunnies back into the power sharing. But they are not playing ball. Not all Shias like the US either. Moqtdr is against the US. Very hotch potch and Uncle Sam either doesn't have a clue or deliberately instigating all this old mantra of devide and rule. Will they succeed. No don't think so as they are already failing. And I hope they fail and we pull our UK troops out of their fast.
Remember, supplying and training terrorists. It will not be long before the Kurds one day become another enemy of the US.
There is also another sad story here too that the people of the region will turn against the Kurds once the US leave. Kurds are too much into their oil and power at the moment to think that much ahead. Their leaders are foolish men. Their greatest asset is to be part of Iraq but they can't seem to see it always feeling they are on the fringes rather than an integral part of Iraq.
In all these discussions I have left the Russians and the Chineese out but they will be very much behind supplying all kinds of weapons once the full conflict starts coupled with Syria and Israel becoming involved too.
Finally, I recognise that all this is purely down to the neo conservative republican parties doing. Dicky Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfweitz and very few eveil twisted guys.
Purely the Bush administration is at fault. NOT the American people who have been sold a pack of lies like everyone else.
I feel sorry for all the marines being led by the nose. The American honour glory and dignity has been trampled on by these powerful men.
American media is hell bent on pride which in the international domain is rock bottom. Even their old allies and friends are now considered to be anti-American because they are not dishing out the advice they want to hear. Look at Spain and France.
Somebody mentioned impeaching the president over Iraq. How right they are. Until the truth gets out there Bush and Blair continue pushing their denials.
That's my view based on facts on the ground if I may add.
What does it mean to the markets?
US economy losing strength
US $ going down
Buy lots of gold
Oil is running out
The end is nigh...
We are at the cusp of a new era
Doom and glooommmmmmmmmmmmmmm......
PS. Don't forget Global Warming...