Intuitive / Analytical Practical Application

[ducati998]

Tw2,

First of all none of my comments are directed at you personally, or should be construed as critical of you as a person. I simply seek to elucidate the psychology of a variety of trading, investing methods, and as such, methodologies will often come under fire. So.......

Price did not say it would go below 15.00. I said that!

Opinions, and technical analysis, must by definition, not exist.
As a technical trader, what price, and price direction "do" so must you, irrespective of what you think, feel, etc.

This is a stumbling block for many, as they take a "POSITION IN THEIR MINDS" when they place a position in the market, and have trouble, changing their MINDS when and if the market changes.

This is where fundamentally investors and traders part company. I will have an OPINION on an issue when I place a position in the market. Whether the market goes with me or against me is irrelevant, I am right, or wrong, not because the market says so, but because my analysis is either right or wrong.

The tape is the tape. It tells it owns story. It would be quite foolish to say that price can't never change from bearish to bullish. Prices change all the time! We have to simply adjust.

Exactly so. And PRICE = SENTIMENT.
I have tried to get definitions from others in regard to a definition on price, and always get an observation of what price does, not what it is.
SENTIMENT can change in a heartbeat, be manipulated, led, and many other variables.
The Market, is a voting machine, invariably stupid, wrong, and prone to emotional outbursts, in other words totally irrational.

In TA, this is what you are attempting to trade. Therefore, to attach any credence to your analysis is foolhardy. My 4 variations of TA, might all be wrong today, stop me out, and reverse next week........who knows.

The point, is that whatever form of TA that you use, sentiment will shift against you at some point, invalidating your analysis, and causing you a loss. This is TA. You seek to make it profitable via money management techniques.

Today you seem to be making light of what I see in the tape. Are you?

Absolutely not. What you see is sentiment, and sentiment changes.
What interests me is............

You see, the more effort we put into our work, whatever that work may be, the greater our pride and sense of achievement in that work. Now, traders cannot afford this mindset..........they are either right or wrong..........if wrong they lose money even if it took them 6hrs to find and analyse this trade that took 30secs. to go against them..................the temptation, the slippery slope is to have pride in your work .....and give it time to prove you right.

Does the amount of effort placed in the analysis, or the TIME TAKEN to LEARN a methodology, predispose the trader to believe in the analysis to a greater extent, than if it took him 10mins. to either implement or learn?

This after all is a thread in Psychology.
Cheers d998

 

[Tapewormtoo]

If price=sentiment and the tape is a measure of that sentiment then the tape will reflect that sentiment. In the end all is sentiment. Even fundamental analysis. You look at the fundamentals and then becuase of what you see there you "feel" it is a good bargin so you take a position. Just because a company is fundamentally sound is no guarantee it will go up in value. It may gone down. So, really fundamental analysis is sentiment too!!

The tape is a barometer of the sentiment or "what people feel, think, and believe" about a security. What is wrong in trading that? You do realize that the tape also records the fundamentalists who have take a position so it is recording their sentiment also. If a tape reader can guage sentiment by reading the tape and not using fundamental analysis then what makes that any better or any worse than making money by fundamental analysis. In the end what one "thinks or feels" is going to determine how one acts. If you think a company is fundamentally sound then you will act on that belief and take a position. Your sentiment is simply added to the tape.

It really doesn't matter. If money can be made reading sentiment then good. If it can be made reading fundamentals and then forming your own sentiment then good!

 

[Tapewormtoo]

This is where fundamentally investors and traders part company. I will have an OPINION on an issue when I place a position in the market. Whether the market goes with me or against me is irrelevant, I am right, or wrong, not because the market says so, but because my analysis is either right or wrong.

Your opinion is your belief or feeling based on fundamental matters. A TA trader would base his feeling or belief based on TA. A tape reader would be his feeling or belief based on what the tape says. So, we are ALL trading on our feelings, beliefs, opinions. The source of our beliefs is the only thing that is different. If we are wrong then ....that is why we use stop losses. So if analysis is wrong whether Fundamental, TA, Tape reading, all one can do is react to what the market is actually doing. Now, the tape tells me what it is actually doing. Granted I have to interpret that tape but at least it is based on what is actually happening. Tape reading is right on top of the market. It is what the market is doing at the moment. On the hand,Fundamental analysis is based on internal workings and condictions of the company not on what is happening to the price. So, from those fundamental issue one forms an opinion to take or not take a position. Since those issues aren't "actual price" then one is not trading on price but on fundamental issues. So, it is one step removed from the price. TA is what one "thinks" a market will do when it is oversold/overbought. Most all TA indicators are simply a derivative of price. So, by definition they are also one step removed. Tape reading is the only thing that "is price". Or a direct barometer of sentiment as you would say. Now demand and supply are sentiment! You don't go long if you think and feel prices are going to go down. So, tape reading allows trading based upon demand and supply which is based upon sentiment.

What is wrong with trading on sentiment if that is what demand and supply is???

 

[ducati998]

Tw2

If price=sentiment and the tape is a measure of that sentiment then the tape will reflect that sentiment.

Yes, that is true. And the nature of sentiment is that it feeds upon itself, thus swings in any direction tend to be overdone. Price at the top of bull markets is invariably to high, and Price at the bottom of bear markets to low.

In the end all is sentiment. Even fundamental analysis

Just because a company is fundamentally sound is no guarantee it will go up in value. It may gone down.

This is where I would disagree. Fundamental analysis seeks to place Price in CONTEXT with the intrinsic value of the Company. Therefore Price is linked to value, and as such Price may over or undervalue the company.
If the Price undervalues the Company, you now have a potential opportunity to take advantage of that fact. As an example, Company XYZ declares bankruptcy, Wall St, hates uncertainity, and the Company sells in the market for $1,000,000. Yet upon inspection, the assets are found to be under conservative valuation $2,000,000.........all that is required is a catalyst to RELEASE that value. The courts will provide that catalyst, thus providing you, the analyst, with 100% profit.

Price, unlinked to value, or some other context, other than Price itself, must reflect nothing other than sentiment and momentum that is generated by nothing other than itself, or manipulation by others.

If, however, you require "The Market" to act as a catalyst to release your "value", then there are 2 components that are required.
1....That the Company improves the sentiment surrounding itself, viz. it will remove the "negative sentiment" that dropped its price.
2....That in the time required to do so, the value that you saw, does not dissipate.

Should these two criteria not be met, then, yes Price may not recover, or indeed deteriorate further.

The tape is a barometer of the sentiment or "what people feel, think, and believe" about a security. What is wrong in trading that?

There is nothing RIGHT or WRONG about this. It is not a moral judgement.
It is however a logical judgement in that, how successful do you feel you can be in trying to assess the average opinion of a group, trying to assess the average opinion, within a timeframe that leaves very little room for manouver, where ABC, might completely change the view on XYZ. And to be profitable, your analysis must be correct day after day after day. This is not easy.

You do realize that the tape also records the fundamentalists who have take a position so it is recording their sentiment also. If a tape reader can guage sentiment by reading the tape and not using fundamental analysis then what makes that any better or any worse than making money by fundamental analysis.

Yes, of course you are correct, the tape will reflect any fundamental decision, but only so far as in it appears on the tape.
What the tape does not say is, the 5,000 shares just purchased, were purchased because, by the amortization rate calculated, this price represents intrinsic value of $16 / share, but I can buy it for $11 / share today.

Value and Sentiment are not equivelents.
Value is real, and will retain that reality for a longer or shorter timeframe, based on the business fundamentals.
Sentiment is mere opinion based on anyone of hundreds of different variables, some of which may well be the "Fundamentals", but is subject to change, on the next price tick.

In the end what one "thinks or feels" is going to determine how one acts.

And here is the fundamental difference......"THINKS"....."FEELS"
One is based on analysis, comprehensive one hopes, and a decision is taken based on a weighing of the facts.
The other is an emotional decision, based on all information that registers an emotional reaction at that moment in time.

Herein lies the difficulty. The time allotted or available to act, based on information.
FA, provides you with as much time as you require, to think, about your decision.
TA, in a daytrading environment, allows you seconds, mabe less, to reach a decision.

Therefore, if a novice trader, why, if you are set on TA as your methodology, would you choose to start at the most difficult end? Where your "EMOTIONAL" skills are non-existant?
Would it not be more sensible to start on a weekly, EOD method, where you have the time to hone the speed of your Emotional decision making process?

It really doesn't matter. If money can be made reading sentiment then good.

True enough. But............most daytraders lose money, and potloads of it.

Your opinion is your belief or feeling based on fundamental matters. A TA trader would base his feeling or belief based on TA. A tape reader would be his feeling or belief based on what the tape says. So, we are ALL trading on our feelings, beliefs, opinions. The source of our beliefs is the only thing that is different. If we are wrong then ....that is why we use stop losses.

An interesting view. And, yes I agree.
What muddies the water is that at any given point in time everyone could be right or wrong.
Therefore, the shorter your TIMEFRAME, the greater the odds are that you will be WRONG, at that moment, hence the requirement for your very survival of the stoploss order.

I, on the other hand NEVER have or use a stoploss order.
My timeframe is radically different. Time is my friend, and increases the odds of my being right.

So if analysis is wrong whether Fundamental, TA, Tape reading, all one can do is react to what the market is actually doing. Now, the tape tells me what it is actually doing. Granted I have to interpret that tape but at least it is based on what is actually happening.

I pay no attention to the MARKET.
The market, is foolish, and why would I listen to a fool?
The market is a business partner, who will offer to me on any given day thousands of opportunities, some are bargains, some are lemons. On a different day, some of those bargains are no longer bargains, and some of those lemons are looking bargainlike.

The ability to calculate value independantly of the "Market quote" allows you to "BUY LOW, SELL HIGH"....which is the oldest advice in the book.

Trading on PRICE lets the market dictate to you........ what you must do, when you must do it, and you become victim to the aggregate optimism, or pessimism of the crowd.

Now demand and supply are sentiment!

Are they really?
I would disagree.
However, it is an important point and deserves a response, which will be forthcoming.

So, tape reading allows trading based upon demand and supply which is based upon sentiment.

What is wrong with trading on sentiment if that is what demand and supply is???

Hopefully there may be other opinions.
They are good questions. They also go to the heart of much of the manipulation.

Cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

SUPPLY & DEMAND.

There is great emphasis on the concept of supply and demand, whether it be Economic supply and demand, or market based supply and demand.

It would also seem that P&V exponents believe that through their analysis of volume, at a given point of time, that conclusions may be drawn that lend accuracy to their short-term trading positions.

Is this a valid assumption?


Ownership Information
Shares Outstanding 18.00 Mil
Institutional Ownership (%) 70.50
Top 10 Institutions (%) 48.64
Mutual Fund Ownership (%) 13.41
5%/Insider Ownership (%) 41.46
Float (%) 58.54

Ownership Activity # of Holders Shares
Total Positions 86 12,690,893
New Positions 20 707,100
Soldout Positions 10 -454,941
Net Position Change 28 1,288,903
Buyers 53 2,427,787
Sellers 25 -1,138,884

So we can see out of a total Float of 18M shares, some 12.5M are held by Institutions, and insiders. This leaves 5.5M shares for the Market Makers to play with, in this case the NYSE Specialist.

As far as Supply and Demand are concerned then, we have to segregate S&D into different categories if it is to be any use.

Economic S&D based on the business and the business cycle.
Market S&D based on short-term trading activity, or basically noise. The noise is created by short-term traders who are trading to pick up small moves, and who do not remove the remaining supply on a longer-term basis, that is at the market close, at around 1500 - 1530, you start to see daytrading positions being closed out, and, some swing positions being opened.

But these observations are very subjective, and would you want to base an anlysis on such a subjective premise? Of course, this does not even begin to take into account the Specialist, who will have the benefit of the ORDER BOOK and thus has a much more accurate picture of REALITY, and will manipulate the price to keep his stock of securities balanced, and able to make a market.

If you realistically want to use Volume as an indicator, you must create a method that seperates noise volume from S&D volume. This I suggest will be rather difficult as tracking VOLUME then becomes a horribly lagging indicator............and all the proponents of P&V seem to agree that P&V is in point of fact a LEADING indicator, or REALTIME market.

Just as an aside, with Economic S&D, as the PRICE drops, so demand should rise, as you can have the same product cheaper.......viz. If Ducati's go on sale, lets say $5000 reduction, more will be sold,

However, Market dynamics do not operate in this manner.
Price drops, instead of supply diminishing through increased buying demand, Supply will increase, as paniced sellers, and short-sellers increase the supply.

Technical traders, P&V, etc, have to follow this herd like response, as the information they are working with is so limited, they are incapable of making an informed decision, thus they must pre-empt the majority of the herd, but the herd must follow.........if the herd does not follow, stopped out with a loss.

Of course, like grocery shopping, lower prices are the time to buy, if you know what you are buying......................Price is what you pay, Value is what you get ( Buffett )

cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

CALLON PETROLEUM (NYSE:CPE) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 15.65
Trade Time: 3:37PM ET
Change: 0.30 (1.95%)
Prev Close: 15.35
Open: 15.36
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 15.36 - 15.72
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 81,800
Avg Vol (3m): 131,818
Market Cap: 277.33M
P/E (ttm): 13.15
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)


This was at 1537pm
Lets see if the volume can indicate anything useful in the last half-hour
cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

CALLON PETROLEUM (NYSE:CPE) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 15.59
Trade Time: 3:58PM ET
Change: 0.24 (1.56%)
Prev Close: 15.35
Open: 15.36
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 15.36 - 15.72
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 86,900
Avg Vol (3m): 131,818
Market Cap: 276.27M
P/E (ttm): 13.10
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)


Price drops $0.06
Any relevance as far as P&V?
Volume.............any importance that can be gleaned?

d998

 

[ducati998]

Interesting development from a technical perspective.
On the analysis using Support & Resistance, a hard stop was placed at $14.80, now this would be an EOD stop.

With Price hovering around $14.70 - $14.63, should the position be closed out at this point, or would you wait for tomorrow, assuming that it closes below $14.80.
Of course the problem being, it may drop further, increasing your loss, it may bounce, causing hesitation in your decision to close, or reduce your loss if you do close.

At this point, I would technically close the long position, and take the loss, as it is finite, and your risk is managed.

cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

Last Trade: 14.67
Trade Time: 3:31PM ET
Change: 0.93 (5.96%)
Prev Close: 15.60
Open: 15.70
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 14.63 - 15.80
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 132,000
Avg Vol (3m): 131,818
Market Cap: 259.97M
P/E (ttm): 12.33
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

 

[ducati998]

CALLON PETROLEUM (NYSE:CPE) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 14.77
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: 0.83 (5.32%)
Prev Close: 15.60
Open: 15.70
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 14.63 - 15.80
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 154,500
Avg Vol (3m): 131,818
Market Cap: 261.74M
P/E (ttm): 12.41
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)


And it closes $0.03 below the hard stop.
What if anything does an analysis of P&V tell us?

On this particular trade, TA utilising at least one form of indicator, that is support, resistance has technically failed. It will be interesting to see what develops over next couple of days.

Regarding P&V, we can say that "average volume" was higher than daily volume over last couple of days, while daily volume today was above "average volume"
Therefore, the price weakness today was to be expected, and a short position should have been placed @ $15.60

In the absence of any analysis stating the above, the divergence of price and volume seemingly went unnoticed. However, with the drop in price, volume did in point of fact increase, in direct contradiction of Economic supply and demand, or are people just awaiting more of a bargain?.......Does this not then enter into the realm of Fundamental analysis,.......that is, that at the current price, the value is still too low?

Two problems,
1....Would this analysis from a P&V analysis have remained true if the index had had an up day? In other words, in the absence of any data relating directly to this stock, or industry, the stock just followed the index.

2...Timeframe......that is to say, how you trade this becomes very timeframe dependant, daytrading each move would be the most profitable assuming you can catch every move correctly, and this is a big ask, especially in regards to capital exposure, but for those wishing to trade a less frenetic system, rather frustrating.

d998

 

[ducati998]

Well, on to analysis #3, the turtle system.
This would still have you long in the trade. You might not be a happy camper at this point, but as these are generally "Mechanical based systems", you would through your backtesting, have established your drawdown periods, maximum losses.

How reliable are these backtested results?
Depends on the type of market you tested in. Long systems should be tested in Bear and flat markets. Shorts, in Bull and flat markets. And over at least 10yrs, if not longer.

Anyway, method #1, stopped out on a loss of $630 ( on a 1000 share position ) inc brokerage.
Method #3, still long,...................

d998

 

[Tapewormtoo]

I am still short because the tape has never yet told me to cover. Even with the big decline today the tape still says more decline is likely coming. So I wait. Of course today would have been a good time to cover but when tape shows this kind of weakness then it is best to wait.

There were a couple of days that demand began to creep back in, but, the tape showed that enough demand didn't materialize to warrant covering and taking a long position. So, I waited and will continue to wait. Right now if I take the close today as my profit point I am at 1.35 to 1.45 profit. However, I can't see closing out just yet. It did go below 15.00 just not quite as soon as I thought. A little demand entered back in and that caused the break below 15.00 to take an extra day or two to materialize. I guess you were stopped out on your technical position as it broke 14.80 so your stop loss was hit. I expect it will go below 14.63 tommorrow but if it doesn't and not enough demand is coming back in to warrant covering I will still continue to hold my short position.

Ducat this is strictly tape reading and no indicators.

How would your fundamental position be at this point? Did you every indicate you took a fundamental position on this stock or not? I don't remember. I remember you were toying around with the technical postions.

 

[ducati998]

Tw2,
Then you are sitting on a nice little profit.

Right now if I take the close today as my profit point I am at 1.35 to 1.45 profit.

am still short because the tape has never yet told me to cover. Even with the big decline today the tape still says more decline is coming. So I wait.

Right, this time I am not incorrect in saying that due to your analysis of P&V, or tapereading, that there is further price weakness to come.

Of course today would have been a good time to cover but when tape shows this kind of weakness then it is best to wait.

So we will wait and see what tomorrow brings. Now, from a Technical point of view, and this really applies only to Swing traders, not daytraders, what caused the weakness today?
There is nothing really fundamentally wrong with the stock, just a bit expensive, oil, is at a healthy price..........the indices, or market as a whole, is weak though, and that is what I believe is currently driving the swings............the frustrating factor is, however, that you could be stopped out by a market based swing, or sentiment. Daytraders, obviously are not exposed to this dynamic, but a whole set of other problems.

How would your fundamental position be at this point? Did you every indicate you took a fundamental position on this stock or not? I don't remember. I remember you were toying around with the technical postions

I never actually said. Based on the Fundamentals, that I posted, the conclusion was that I would not take a position at these prices, long or short. These prices, from a fundamental perspective are no-mans land.

I HAD a long position in this stock, from $10.89 to $17.42, but closed it out prior to the earnings release, and should the price decline to $12 or preferrably lower, I will again take a long position.

d998

 

[Tapewormtoo]

I never actually said. Based on the Fundamentals, that I posted, the conclusion was that I would not take a position at these prices, long or short. These prices, from a fundamental perspective are no-mans land.

I HAD a long position in this stock, from $10.89 to $17.42, but closed it out prior to the earnings release, and should the price decline to $12 or preferrably lower, I will again take a long position.

d998

I suppose that makes sense from a fundamental perspective. I wouldn't want to "invest" at these prices either but am willing to trade based on tape.

 

[Tapewormtoo]

There is nothing really fundamentally wrong with the stock, just a bit expensive, oil, is at a healthy price..........the indices, or market as a whole, is weak though, and that is what I believe is currently driving the swings............the frustrating factor is, however, that you could be stopped out by a market based swing, or sentiment. Daytraders, obviously are not exposed to this dynamic, but a whole set of other problems.
d998

You are probally right about it being the indexes but it really doesn't matter to me what caused the sentiment swing. The Dow and S&P tape readings both are somewhat bearish for tommorrow by the tape so if this stock tracks along with the indexes it will probally be bearish too, The tape does indicate somewhat bearish tomorrow also for CPE.

It really doesn't matter to me "why" it is leaning towards bearish. It could be the insiders dumped on the market today. I don't know. Nevertheless, the tape will record the sentiment and that is all I need as a barometer of the sentiment that will indicate near-term future prices.

If I see strenght coming back in to the market tomorrow that would be threatening my stop loss I would dump it. Of course, I don't think that will happen but it could! Anything is possible in the markets.

 

[ducati998]

Tw2,

You are probally right about it being the indexes but it really doesn't matter to me what caused the sentiment swing.

While I appreciate your position on no requirement to understand what is driving the "tape", this I feel can be rather dangerous to a swing trader,........which currently you are.

If you were a pure daytrader, then the factors driving sentiment would be less of a concern as each day you would close your position, either with a profit or loss.
However as a swing-trader, sentiment can rear up and bite very quickly, turning a profitable position into a loser, as demonstrated with my #1 analysis, that went from paper profit to actualised loss very quickly.

Now, Oil prices will drive the price of this stock, and they are currently volatile, a bullish spike in oil, could very quickly reverse the sentiment.
Also, in the absence of a primary driver of sentiment, the overall indices will provide a short-term bias, or direction.

So, as a position trader, you are at the mercy of sentiment that may ( in the case of oil ) or may not ( indices ) alter the fundamentals of the business..........and in CPE's case, not hugely, as they have hedged the price of oil contracts, higher than last quarters price, therefore earnings should rise in the next quarter, but they may, if the oil price rises lock in further profit margin.

The last point, and this is always pure speculation, is that as you cannot know the Specialists order book, and as mentioned previously, the effect in the Market of dropping "Price" is the complete opposite of the Economic reaction to falling price, viz. the Market will increase Supply, should the Specialist require "Stock".....he will drop the "Price", and conversely, if he has surplus inventory he raises the "Price"

This interesting little psychological twist, invariably puts traders on the wrong foot, and out of the markets rhythm.

cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

Associated Press
Crude Futures Drop As OPEC Suspends Talks
Wednesday March 30, 5:59 am ET
By George Jahn, Associated Press Writer
Crude Futures Drop As OPEC Suspends Talks on Second Output Increase


VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Crude futures fell Wednesday, reflecting lessened worries about supplies after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries suspended talks on a second output increase.
Analysts said the market expected OPEC's move, which signaled the group's conviction that supply was adequate to meet present demand. Traders, meanwhile, were expecting growth in crude oil inventories in the energy supply report from the United States later in the day.

Last week's U.S. government data showed American inventories of crude oil at 309.3 million barrels, or 8 percent above year-ago levels, while gasoline supplies were at 217.3 million barrels, also 8 percent above year-ago levels.

Light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 3 cents to $54.20 a barrel by midday in Europe. Hating oil fell marginally to $1.5560 a gallon, while unleaded gasoline was up slightly at $1.5735 a gallon.

Brent crude was up 9 cents to $53.12 at on the International Petroleum Exchange in London

In the latest signal that OPEC considered the market under control, Qatar's oil minister, Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah, said he did not expect the group to meet before June, as scheduled, saying there were no supply problems.

On Tuesday, OPEC President Sheik Ahmed Fahd al Ahmed Al Sabah, who is also the oil minister of Kuwait, said the group would be watching oil prices to determine whether another production increase is necessary.

"We will resume talks once oil prices increase," Al Sabah said.

His comments assured traders that the producers' group no longer feared an immediate supply crunch.

"The comments from OPEC have put a cap on any upward price movements," said energy analyst Daniel Hynes of ANZ Bank in Melbourne, Australia.

OPEC agreed earlier this month to raise production quotas by 500,000 barrels per day and said it would consult on whether to increase them by a further 500,000 if prices continued to rise.

Still, Al Sabah warned that demand could grow another 2.2 million barrels a day this year, reflecting not only the high demands of the summer driving season in the Northern Hemisphere but also continuing world economic growth.

OPEC will need to pump 28.5 million barrels a day in the summer -- an increase of 1 million barrels a day from current output -- he said.

"I believe there will be an increase in production at the end of the second quarter because the market will need it," he said.

Al Sabah also cautioned that daily demand could rise as high as 33.3 million barrels in the peak winter months, providing support to prices.

Worldwide demand is forecast by the International Energy Agency to rise 2.2 percent this year to 84.3 million barrels a day.

But for now, "clearly, they think they've done enough," Kevin Norrish, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London, said of OPEC's decision to hold off on another increase in the output ceiling.

Because of concern about the fourth quarter of the year -- when winter traditionally jacks up demand in the Northern Hemisphere -- "to some extent, saving what you've got in case you need it later looks like a sensible decision to make," he said.

Associated Press Writer Wee Sui Lee in Singapore contributed to this report.

 

[Tapewormtoo]

So far at 11:19 a.m. the tape still indicates weakness. Short position still in place.

 

[Tapewormtoo]

3:25 p.m. EASTERN. It broke below 14.63 going to 14.35. I expected it to break below the 14.63. Some demand is starting to come back in. However, I am still holding my short position. Overall the tape indicates weakness still but some demand coming in. Don't know what the indexes are doing. I haven't looked. Are they weak also?

 

[ducati998]

Tw2,
No the indices have been fairly strong all day.
Oil has been, steady to weak.


CALLON PETROLEUM (NYSE:CPE) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 15.02
Trade Time: 3:32PM ET
Change: 0.27 (1.83%)
Prev Close: 14.75
Open: 14.77
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 14.35 - 15.04
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 130,200
Avg Vol (3m): 131,181
Market Cap: 266.17M
P/E (ttm): 12.62
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)


So far, just the usual games, nice big range making it difficult for position and swing traders to hold in the trade if they are following any sort of trading plan with a stoploss as part of that plan.
cheers d998