Genuinely thinking about leaving London for a couple of weeks

[RedGreenBen]

If the mortality rate is 2.5 to 5% and 40% of the population gets infected (like the professor from Imperial College suggested) we are looking at around a million deaths in the UK alone

A further complication is that it isn't clear how many of these would be 'accelerated' deaths.

Air pollution kills 0.3M people in Europe every year but most of these are people who are already ill with respiratory disease etc. Similarly, many of the deaths from flu would be individuals who are already ill and would have died anyway in the following few days/weeks of the original condition.

Ben

 

[minch]

The wife is getting paranoid as usual.
She rang me from the garage last night and told me she had run out of petrol,
She said she was scared to get out and fill up because of Swine flu,
I said you daft bat its in Mexico not Texaco.

 

[gooseman]

have you seen 28 days later arabian? go to the countryside and upon your return-nobody but a naked delivery boy.

 

[arabianights]

A further complication is that it isn't clear how many of these would be 'accelerated' deaths.

Air pollution kills 0.3M people in Europe every year but most of these are people who are already ill with respiratory disease etc. Similarly, many of the deaths from flu would be individuals who are already ill and would have died anyway in the following few days/weeks of the original condition.

Ben

This is where this flu could be different; potentially it may kill through a cytokine storm, in which case young men without any other illnesses will be the ones that have the greatest mortality.

 

[N Rothschild]

they will find a vaccine **** easy

 

[ian]

Right...

Done some more research on this swine flu stuff. My findings can be summarised thus:

1. Highly, highly contagious. One cough can infect 100s. I live in the West End, work in the City, and use public transport. In a decent epidemic I am practically guaranteed to get it.
2. Plenty of evidence mexican government is covering up true extent of it there
3. Mortality rate seems to be about 1 in 15 so far, and could easily get worse.

So, let's analyse at leaving London for a fortnight as though it were a trade.

Risk: Lose out on a couple of weeks income. Also, in the most likely scenario look both paranoid and silly.
Reward: Don't die. Also a fortnight in the country tends to be quite nice, especially where I will be heading.

Now as it happens, I already tend to look paranoid and silly. So basically I'll just miss out on a couple of week's income, and I can certainly earn plenty of cash by spread betting as a partial substitute... and I have piles of savings anyway... so aren't going to starve. So the risks aren't really risks at all.

But not dying is a huge reward.

I haven't decided yet, but is there any flaw in my analysis?

Are you serious?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

All that crackling on the line.

there's no snout about it, that was funny !

 

[arabianights]

Lol. And btw - have a pointless gold star, on me. Used to mean something, but Wasp collects them like he collects, erm, whatever he has loads of. So now they're devalued.

GBPJPY pips, I think

 

[arabianights]

Are you serious?

I'm always serious

Have till Monday to make a decision about coming back, as I was going to be heading into the country anyway... although I've brought that forward a bit to be leaving in a few hours time...

 

[arabianights]

Yeah. Them things. And they're devalued too.

They seem to be going up in value in these fortnightly documents

 

[RedGreenBen]

This is where this flu could be different; potentially it may kill through a cytokine storm, in which case young men without any other illnesses will be the ones that have the greatest mortality.

That's a fair point, I have been biasing all of my responses towards lessening the panic though! If I wasn't trying to lessen the panic then I would point out that Tamiflu is bugger all use against these storms. But I won't.

You are right though to say 'potentially' as it is currently unproven.

Ben

 

[ian]

I'm always serious

Have till Monday to make a decision about coming back, as I was going to be heading into the country anyway... although I've brought that forward a bit to be leaving in a few hours time...

My advice is as follows:

Stock up on beer, munchies and food. Get blotto'd so bad you can't leave the house for 2 weeks. Switch on the telly after you sober up and check the news, the scare will have passed.

Trust me I'm a doctor.:smart:

 

[RedGreenBen]

I'd been getting too serious about this topic, so... (attached).

Ben

 

[RedGreenBen]

I'm getting ever so slightly obsessed about this now (I even thought about reading The Daily Mail!) but good news for Arabian, from BBC News, ...

However, there is one other reassuring aspect about what is known so far.

That is there seems to be nothing unusual as yet in another protein in the centre of the virus, called NS1, which is linked to the strength of the immune response the virus produces.

In some more pathogenic viruses, it is this NS1 protein which initiates a "cytokine storm", a particularly severe immune reaction that can be fatal in even healthy young people.
​

BBC NEWS | Health | What scientists know about swine flu

Ben

 

[arabianights]

Yes, I've seen that, it is certainly something I will be considering when I make a decision on Monday

Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the fresh, non flu filled, air

 

[arabianights]

Swine flu: hospitals could turn away critical patients in a pandemic - Telegraph

doom gloom boom

 

[MrGecko]

You are enjoying the fresh air by sitting at a computer and posting pointless messages on an internet forum...

 

[arabianights]

yes, what else would I do?

 

[gedward3]

yes, what else would I do?

Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-Fap-


IN THE FRESH AIR ON A HAYSTACK :clap::clap::clap:

 

[arabianights]

I've just seen this:

What to think of it?