FX Trading: week 16th - 20th July

[Phil Mibbutz]

Hi everyone,

How high can it go? At this rate it'll be $2.1 before my next birthday... :cheesy:

Bad day today. Lost -25 pips after a long time out of cable. Got movement on interest rates wrong and now this. When you lose heat you go off the boil...

Waiting for a sign in the markets. I think we are coming up to some seismic moves and so I'm more flat than in the market these days.

I think oil will come off the highs. Gold may well rise if dollar continues in it's slide. As for cable and euro I can only imagine they get stronger.

Good trading...

A while back I seem to remember posting something intended to be ridiculous about cable hitting $2.3 or $2.4 by August Bank Holiday. That's now beginning to look like a possibility!

GU just has to have a retrace soon, and surely the Dow is ripe for a major correction any day now?

 

[JillyB]

where is your stop Jilly?
hope that at the very least you get a BE trade.

j

My limit order is set for b/e - at least until the morning. And my stop is at 2.0512.

If it breaks 2.0443 and closes below this on an hourly chart then I'll consider moving them in the morning - looking to take at least a little profit from it.

 

[JillyB]

A while back I seem to remember posting something intended to be ridiculous about cable hitting $2.3 or $2.4 by August Bank Holiday. That's now beginning to look like a possibility!

GU just has to have a retrace soon, and surely the Dow is ripe for a major correction any day now?

Well if the matrix is to be believed then the correction should start this week.

That's why I'm holding onto my short just a little longer. 2.04 was their price target and it's been hit and now we should have a signal for a reversal.

19th July is being heralded as a turning date for the Indices - so I'll be watching this one too with bated breath.

 

[jacinto]

Well if the matrix is to be believed then the correction should start this week.

19th July is being heralded as a turning date for the Indices - so I'll be watching this one too with bated breath.

not related to your short but to the matrix.

i have a double measured move 560-70 as a target.......and those things typically reach target ........ .............where i would expect the reversal if a reversal is to happen.......

edit: and thinking of it......given cable's daily range, a last up day gets to that target.....spooky......and Trendie was talking about friday the 13th.....guess i will stay in bed on thursday or take the kid to swim....

 

[JillyB]

not related to your short but to the matrix.

i have a double measured move 560-70 as a target.......and those things typically reach target ........ .............where i would expect the reversal if a reversal is to happen.......

Hi J,

2.0560-70 - that's scary stuff

All I can tell you is that from the matrix settings both time and price have converged and we should, in the next day or so, see the start of a retracement.

Bear with me though, because I'm fairly new to all this and still trying to get to grips with it - it's not the simplest thing in the world to understand - so I'm only telling you what their charts tell me.

I guess the proof of the pudding is in the eating.....

 

[fibonelli]

am i correct to spy a bearish rising wedge on the weekly EUR/USD?

 

[Crap Buddist]

took 9 point loss on the short yesterday cut at 11pm,before bed. Just as well, booted up and the markets and its mid 2.0540..... hmmm just as I said the asians dont run it much, they have...

Sods law Jacinto... ,but when I closed after holding short 4/5 hours I looked at it and thought, well they havent given much away on this , looking for shorts now ,at your target zone.. ?


around these levels its at it typical monthly ATR 600 points from the low, so be interesting to see if we get an expansion of the ATR or some retrace from here on..

 

[Crap Buddist]

yesterdays trades

.. reviewng the trades i could of held first trade longer, the signal to reverse on my setup (close that long from 373) was flagged when I took the second trade short 460. but took windfall exit. maybe the BT engineer psyched me out to snatching early at a deep level.... (my line was being cut lunch onwards) I dunno..

 

[jacinto]

hmmm just as I said the asians dont run it much, they have...

Sods law Jacinto... ,but when I closed after holding short 4/5 hours I looked at it and thought, well they havent given much away on this , looking for shorts now ,at your target zone.. ?


around these levels its at it typical monthly ATR 600 points from the low, so be interesting to see if we get an expansion of the ATR or some retrace from here on..

yep, its crap my dear Buddist funny how the ATR and the monthly measured move were almost the same if not the same......still got 20 pips to go from the high for the target, but well.

i guess i might as well just go to legoland now

 

[Crap Buddist]

yep, its crap my dear Buddist funny how the ATR and the monthly measured move were almost the same if not the same......still got 20 pips to go from the high for the target, but well.

i guess i might as well just go to legoland now

hmm well last months bar, I ,m not looking at it, but i thought that closed up its high, I was thinking that strength around $2. what if july is gonna be another advancing bar, so, if we look at julys low, 1.9970 ? (dunno,1.99somefink) add on cables typical ATR we get the mid 2.0550 ish...... now especially we had all the tight contraction of daily atr dropping to 70/80 points a couple weeks back, that has now expanded. maybe we gonna get a third monthly up bar into august ? not my field long term but we'll see how it looks july completion, maybe back a couple hundred from here, then back up.


you not got a short (plan) number crunched out yet, or you wait for failure first then study the action and crunch?

 

[jacinto]

hmm well last months bar, I ,m not looking at it, but i thought that closed up its high, I was thinking that strength around $2. what if july is gonna be another advancing bar, so, if we look at julys low, 1.9970 ? (dunno,1.99somefink) add on cables typical ATR we get the mid 2.0550 ish...... now especially we had all the tight contraction of daily atr dropping to 70/80 points a couple weeks back, that has now expanded. maybe we gonna get a third monthly up bar into august ? not my field long term but we'll see how it looks july completion, maybe back a couple hundred from here, then back up.


you not got a short (plan) number crunched out yet, or you wait for failure first then study the action and crunch?

shorts...me......you got to be on some buddist drink

yep, correct, wait for setup. no setup just yet and think that will take its time (famous last words......). shorts for now are pullbacks IMO until a reversal setup arises

 

[Crap Buddist]

shorts...me......you got to be on some buddist drink

yep, correct, wait for setup. no setup just yet and think that will take its time (famous last words......). shorts for now are pullbacks IMO until a reversal setup arises

hmm, just eyeing my charts (at this stage) i'll be going intra session short, in a bit, hour or two off yet by the looks of it.


P.s. I think Monks Invented alcohol.

 

[jacinto]

hmm, just eyeing my charts (at this stage) i'll be going intra session short, in a bit, hour or two off yet by the looks of it.


P.s. I think Monks Invented alcohol.

good luck. i think i got to pass, go to legoland and make the best out of it.

by the way, wolfe wave setup for a euryen long on 15 min charts. targets 90 pips by 4:30

Edit: you know CB, you may be getting a little pin bar on the 240 mins for a short on cable......end of the run? coincidence with Jilly's 19th of July thing too

 

[JillyB]

yep, its crap my dear Buddist funny how the ATR and the monthly measured move were almost the same if not the same......still got 20 pips to go from the high for the target, but well.

i guess i might as well just go to legoland now

I take my hat off to you J, you were totally correct with your target.

My short died a painfull death last night - while if I'd traded my system I would have netted a nice 60 pips overnight.

I think I need a few days off trading - my head certainly isn't in the right the place for trading at the moment. It could well be the looming big 40 on Sunday that's doing, either way I think a couple of days off will do me good. This job is, after all, 90% psychologogy and when you lose your perspective, or start becoming emotional about a trade that's when it all goes terribly pear shaped - just as it has done.

Scrapping the Market matrix stuff I think and just sticking with my own little overnight trades.

 

[wasp]

I take my hat off to you J, you were totally correct with your target.

My short died a painfull death last night - while if I'd traded my system I would have netted a nice 60 pips overnight.

I think I need a few days off trading - my head certainly isn't in the right the place for trading at the moment. It could well be the looming big 40 on Sunday that's doing, either way I think a couple of days off will do me good. This job is, after all, 90% psychologogy and when you lose your perspective, or start becoming emotional about a trade that's when it all goes terribly pear shaped - just as it has done.

Scrapping the Market matrix stuff I think and just sticking with my own little overnight trades.

FWIW Jilly, the overnighters you were doing looked a nice little earner from what I saw and as the saying goes, 'if it ain't broke...'

 

[jacinto]

I take my hat off to you J, you were totally correct with your target.

My short died a painfull death last night - while if I'd traded my system I would have netted a nice 60 pips overnight.

I think I need a few days off trading - my head certainly isn't in the right the place for trading at the moment. It could well be the looming big 40 on Sunday that's doing, either way I think a couple of days off will do me good. This job is, after all, 90% psychologogy and when you lose your perspective, or start becoming emotional about a trade that's when it all goes terribly pear shaped - just as it has done.

Scrapping the Market matrix stuff I think and just sticking with my own little overnight trades.

thanks jilly, but i also made mistakes. yes, right targets, but no, not with me on it. im sorry for your short.

you definitely got some nice system there i must say. as for the matrix, i am not really familiar withit, but keep on reading, you never know.

all the best.

j

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Went short at 535, looking for, errm, 700pips, although 7pips will do fine for starters.

 

[wasp]

Went short at 535, looking for, errm, 700pips, although 7pips will do fine for starters.

just 700 :cheesy:

 

[jacinto]

just 700 :cheesy:

whats the problem with 700?...... :cheesy:

on a serious note, thinking of it, why not. plausible scenario if you ask me.....the fundamentals may as well take us in that direction

 

[wasp]

whats the problem with 700?......

I was thinking more like 702