FX Trading October 1 - 5

[JillyB]

A losing streak longer than the maximum of 3 you quoted?

You’ve come to the right place…

Overall pips for the year don’t do much for me, I’m more into the microanalysis of which each day looks like. What jumps out at me, is the R:R. You’re risking more than you’re planning on taking out on each trade. Without knowing the Pwl it’s impossible to judge for sure.

Looks pretty horrible. Your 38 pips/loss stacks up, but what happened to the +30 pips win target? It’s only averaged 20 on this data.

As I say, without knowing the Pwl it tends to look somewhat like having a maximum potential of being a 75% winning system with a 20 pip profit and a 38 pip loss. +1500/-950 = +550/100 = +5.5 pips/trade, not 17.

Jilly, I know you have a number of other strats on the go at any one time….

The losing streak was at the end of March and into April. Although you would have no more than a maximum of 3 losing trades in a row, you may then only have 1 winning trade before you encountered another losing one.

Not sure where you get the 20 pip profit - I have manually tested, written and added up the results (with calculator for this bit) based on 30 pips net win (after spread) and 38 gross loss with spread. There are a number of days where trades are not triggered - so this could be affecting your maths, if you're taking the total number of trading days for the year.

With regards to the r:r - my overnight trading system has similar r:r but with a good win ratio it doesn't do too badly. I can average 30 -35 pips per week from it, which to go with my daytime strategies is very welcome.

The 17 pips I mention for the new system though, is net average pips per week taken over 9 months (39 weeks) - not 17 pips per trade.

 

[Mr.Black]

I set sell stop and buy stop orders on GBP

 

[TheBramble]

Not sure where you get the 20 pip profit -

From here...

Max number of winning trades in a row = 9 (= +180 pips)

Just a shot in the dark, I divided the number of wins by the total pips profit...

Call me complex....

 

[Mr.Black]

I am long on GBP...:cheesy:

 

[JillyB]

From here...

Just a shot in the dark, I divided the number of wins by the total pips profit...

Call me complex....

Oops that a typo on my side - 9 wins should = +270 pips.

Sorry.....

 

[Mr.Black]

I am closing my long for 30 pips profit....:cheesy:

 

[TheBramble]

Oops that a typo on my side - 9 wins should = +270 pips.

Sorry.....

OK, I'll amend my calcs...

...without knowing the Pwl it tends to look somewhat like having a maximum potential of being a 75% winning system with a 30 pip profit and a 38 pip loss. +2250-950 = +1300/100 = +13 pips/trade, not 17.

Pretty irrelevant calculation unless you have the full Pwl, but if the data on the longest losing/winning streaks are indicative, probably not a winner.

How many lots would you need to go with to generate what you would consider a worthwhile trading income for the week? (I don't need to know). And what exposure and margin would that require? The question is, would YOU be happy with that, not would anyone else.

 

[phaeton]

Hi Everyone,

I've spent today backtesting a new strategy that I'd previously given up on - it hit a losing streak and I just left it alone.

What I want are some honest opinions on whether its worth trading this.

Overall pips for 1 year - 1 Sept 2006 to 1 Sept 2007 = 1508 (net of spreads)
Currency pair traded : GBP/USD
Target profit : 30 pips (+ spread = 33)
Stop loss : 35 pips (+spread = 38)

Entry points set at 7.00am based on pivot points

Results:
Max number of losing trades in a row = 3 (= -114 pips)
Max number of winning trades in a row = 9 (= +180 pips)

September 2006 +306
October 2006 +180
November 2006 +334
December 2006 +170
January 2007 -18
February 2007 +50
March 2007 +80
April 2007 -108
May 2007 +124
June 2007 +224
July 2007 +110
August 2007 +56

This would give an average of 29 pips per week (1508 / 52).
However if you take out September, October and November 2006, which were exceptional months (and the reason I started trading this system) the average drops dramatically to 17.16 pips (688 / 39).

My question is - is it worth trading for a possible 17 pips per week profit. I can't help wondering if my trading capital would be better employed on something else.

Any comments gratefully received.

use this to see some possible version of your equity evolution. click several times to get different possible outcomes....

http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

not less than 50 trades I'd say

 

[trendie]

is it just me, or has this mornings sessions been pretty dire?
finished, since I aint gonna trade NFP.
have a good weekend.

 

[smbtnt]

is it just me, or has this mornings sessions been pretty dire?
finished, since I aint gonna trade NFP.
have a good weekend.

I would hang around, it's going to get very interesting....$ vengence...

 

[trendie]

I would hang around, it's going to get very interesting....$ vengence...

okely-dokely.
anything special to look out for? direction?

 

[Mr.Black]

I am short on EUR/USD.... :cheesy:

 

[Mr.Black]

I cover for fast 32 pips profit..... I love this news volatility....:cheesy:

 

[smbtnt]

don't you just love being right on NFP!!!
$ cerainly had its vengence!!

 

[jacinto]

don't you just love being right on NFP!!!
$ cerainly had its vengence!!

yes, but now i prefer to trade Canadian NFP. less chop, and 90 mins before the US NFP spikes

nice one smbtnt

 

[smbtnt]

yes, but now i prefer to trade Canadian NFP. less chop, and 90 mins before the US NFP spikes

nice one smbtnt

Ahh, ok, when is that?

 

[jacinto]

Ahh, ok, when is that?

same day as US NFP @ 12:00 our time

i stopped trading US NFP days for a year. today was the first time in 12 months i went in, and looking to take the canadian one, and finish early

so, nice +100 pip 3 hours :cheesy:

 

[trendie]

same day as US NFP @ 12:00 our time

i stopped trading US NFP days for a year. today was the first time in 12 months i went in, and looking to take the canadian one, and finish early

so, nice +100 pip 3 hours :cheesy:

jammy so-and-so!

I consider news-events as fundamental, and not tradeable from a technical or indicator perspective, so these days pass on them.
although I think fading the intial move may prove to be more viable; havent evaluated that in any meaningful way.
eg, EURJPY spiked down to todays low plus 10 pips, and recovered. I had UP-bias on it. So could have a good cheap BUY (at this mornings low) had I been in.

But GBPUSD spiked down over 30 pips beyond todays low and still there. Also have UP-bias on it. If I had bought cheap (at this mornigns low), I wouldnt be out of pocket.

how do you assess potential direction of NFP?

 

[jacinto]

dont know trendie. I just have tried my best to stand aside from USD pairs as much as possible, and particularly when they have key volatile news announcements.

today i traded CadJPY as a 4 hr setup that had on top NFP day. I didnt trade cad NFP, just took my typical morning trade. the trade was in profit by 40 pips before their NFP, and the news took my target exit.

 

[JillyB]

dont know trendie. I just have tried my best to stand aside from USD pairs as much as possible, and particularly when they have key volatile news announcements.

today i traded CadJPY as a 4 hr setup that had on top NFP day. I didnt trade cad NFP, just took my typical morning trade. the trade was in profit by 40 pips before their NFP, and the news took my target exit.

Would be interested to see a screen shot of your trade and reasons for entering - if it's not too much trouble.