FX trading Aug 13 to 17

[jacinto]

hope you all are having a good weekend and get ready for a rocky week.

different plays at hand.......tons of data that should spark volatility, credit-crunch fears driving the market on one side, central bank intervention on the other, and carry trade unwinding.

in other words a recipe for volatility .....but i am going on holiday on Tuesday, so will miss the party....again

3 charts....week and daily using candles......and another daily with closing prices only.


happy trading

 

[Offshore Trader]

Long cable at 19 and EUR/JPy at 78

 

[Atilla]

Long cable at 19 and EUR/JPy at 78

I'm long on cable and EURUSD based on 4 hour charts. Looks like we are at a support lines.

If 2.0180 is broken on cable we may well test $2.

 

[Offshore Trader]

Long cable at 19 and EUR/JPy at 78

Out at +21 & +35. Nice start to the week. Small long on intraday EUR/JPY method now looking for +100 (S/L -40)

 

[2be]

I'm long on cable and EURUSD based on 4 hour charts. Looks like we are at a support lines.

If 2.0180 is broken on cable we may well test $2.

cable just broke the 254 support and is marching south, market sentiment for cable seems to favour a weaker GBP

 

[oiltanker]

strong 4 hr trends in place on most the ones i watch so i would only be looking for sells on cable, eur/yen, aus, gb/chf, eur/chf, usd/yen


the retracements look tempting but i'm fed up with their happy slapping.

 

[hornblower]

strong 4 hr trends in place on most the ones i watch so i would only be looking for sells on cable, eur/yen, aus, gb/chf, eur/chf, usd/yen


the retracements look tempting but i'm fed up with their happy slapping.

I did laugh, when i read your happy slapping comment

 

[JillyB]

First day back after a wet and dull week in the Lakes - got a stinking cold as well! Still the trading has made up for all that.

Last week was one of the best weeks for my overnight trades since I've been recording the system - +188 pips for last week. Just a shame I wasn't here to trade it.

Monday it recorded a +20 pips (I didn't get back until the late flight last night) and last night I took +9 pips on it.

I also traded the GBP/JPY overnight and took +55 pips (different system for this one - I'm trying it out at the moment.)

And I've just traded the Cable again and taken +45 pips - In at 9.21am and out at 9.31am (just after the news). Now those are the sort of trades I like.

So +109 pips overall - and one very, very happy bunny! :cheesy:

 

[oiltanker]

For bias the charts i'm looking at are still showing so many shorts it could be a beach in Barbados. Tune 'Underneath the mango tree....'

Latest COT report suggests dollar strength which would fit.

This cable $2 r/s line is a monthly one on my chart and todays S2.
2.0600 looks a long way away now. The chart is very steep.[too steep?]
Been short since 2.0090 limited out at 2.0005.
MT4 has a 40pt gap on the 15mins?

will leave till us open and review again.

 

[hornblower]

small long on cable ,and the euro

 

[Offshore Trader]

Short overnight cable and EUR/JPY but fear for these positions and it's gone a long way. Just a little move down would be nice and it can do what it likes in tomorrow's European session.

What's happening to this thread? Where's everyone gone?

 

[JTrader]

summer holidays perhaps? Me too in a day or 2 .

 

[JillyB]

Short overnight cable and EUR/JPY but fear for these positions and it's gone a long way. Just a little move down would be nice and it can do what it likes in tomorrow's European session.

What's happening to this thread? Where's everyone gone?

Hmm my short trade on the Cable looks a bit doubtful as well - I can't see there being much more downside before it starts to bounce.

Plus tomorrow has been given as a turning point date and this is also at the back of my mind.

The 22.20pm entry was at 1.9966 - but I don't like this being so far down - I don't think there's much room for manoeuvre. So I'm chosing to stay out of the trade tonight - I will probably regret this in the morning, but what the hec!

 

[oiltanker]

overnight shorters made a nice packet.

the actual has gone so far down i've had to go through the charts and draw more r/s lines.

everything still looking down.
cable- if we go through 9830 then the next logical place on my chart is 9665 area ie 1000 pt drop.

lots of big uk news at 9.30

currently short
intial target 9830
will keep close stop

edit

stopped out -10 on that pre 8 am stop killer.

 

[JillyB]

Hmm my short trade on the Cable looks a bit doubtful as well - I can't see there being much more downside before it starts to bounce.

Plus tomorrow has been given as a turning point date and this is also at the back of my mind.

The 22.20pm entry was at 1.9966 - but I don't like this being so far down - I don't think there's much room for manoeuvre. So I'm chosing to stay out of the trade tonight - I will probably regret this in the morning, but what the hec!

Just shows that I should ignore everything I think I know and go with the trade. It would have been an easy +60 pips overnight and I thought I knew better!

Sometimes engaging brain is a very dangerous thing.

 

[trendie]

......
Sometimes engaging brain is a very dangerous thing.

 

[c6ackp]

An interesting forex angle on CNBC by David Bloom this morning...

He thinks that the eur and cable will "get smashed" if the Norges Bank fail to increase interest rates, as expected, at 1PM today.

This is because it would indicate that central bankers really ARE spooked by the sub-prime situation and other central bankers could follow suit.

It's unlikely, but may be worth watching, particularly as the Norweigan rate decision may not be on all of your financial calendars.

HTH
c6

 

[oiltanker]

hi jilly

yes i broke my rules of entry this morning and lost. i have rules they work why don't i stick to them?

didn't someone say there is room in the market for bulls and bears but pigs get slaughtered? I think i'm going to print it out, frame it and put it on the wall.

 

[ChowClown]

Short overnight cable and EUR/JPY but fear for these positions and it's gone a long way. Just a little move down would be nice and it can do what it likes in tomorrow's European session.

What's happening to this thread? Where's everyone gone?

Hi OT, a lurker these days here and on ForexFactory, keeping eyes open for interesting ideas to add to the mix.

Good to see you stuck with the BO strats and your biz taking off. Hats off to you.

My trading at the moment is automated and currently restricted to long only trades on GBP/USD using breakout/swing combinations (4 methods atm). I went live with VEBO on fairly limited testing (about a year's data) and in hindsight this wasn't enough, I lost confidence in the method and ceased live trading after an initial 50% profit was whittled by 30%, which was far in excess of the drawdown the testing highlighted. I've used 6 years of data on the current strats and feel confident enough to set and forget. Ironically, these have similar drawdown characteristics (25-35%).

I'm still working full-time and while the auto strats will compound nicely, it will be a while before I can draw a full income. In the meantime i'm working on manual methods, that offer more consistent monthly performance. The likes of Cornflower on ForexFactory look interesting.

Good trading to you and everyone else here.

Simon

 

[Offshore Trader]

Short overnight cable and EUR/JPY but fear for these positions and it's gone a long way. Just a little move down would be nice and it can do what it likes in tomorrow's European session.

Couldn't log on this morning but got taken out on limit orders overnight for a total gain of +120. Confirms what I've always thought that my systems are a lot better than my intuition:cheesy:

These markets are great at the moment, although it's disappointing we have ahd such a long period of stagnation and although I know it won't keep like this for ever just some regular straight line moves like most of last year and this last month would be fine.