FX trading Aug 13 to 17

[Offshore Trader]

Hi Chow,

Still peservering with breakouts because they are low maintenance and do make money, although the drawdowns can be quite large. Surged ahead last week on EUR/JPY with four consecutive 100 point+ days. Also picked up on Jilly Bs overnight trades (virtually nil maintenance) which appears to be a really good method (although so for a time did VEBO).

Ironically, I am doing a little contract work at the moment because I was make big reductions in my capital to cover the ridiculous housing costs in Guernsey and Jan - Apr was particularly lean on the trading front. Since I started work P&L trading has rocketed, so I'm thinking the market is really mocking me because I'd far rather not!
Anyway intention is to build up capital base again and then go back fulltime again, although as I only do low maintenance systems, it is more like full time leisure, which will do nicely!

 

[oiltanker]

ok i'm joining the overnight traders with shorts on cable and yen which have moved enough for me in the last hour to put them at b/e so free trade.

 

[JillyB]

ok i'm joining the overnight traders with shorts on cable and yen which have moved enough for me in the last hour to put them at b/e so free trade.

Yes, unless it does something wild between now and 10pm, I will be looking to go short again tonight on the cable. My system takes the entry as the price at 22.20pm - while I try to better it by 1 or 2 pips.

 

[oiltanker]

finally managed to get on this site.....

i like these overnight trades 130pts this morning between cable and yen i also made a bit of cash on the eur/gbp.
i have modified the jilly trend system with a slow stoch [14,3,5] and use mas for direction rather than high low although that would usually fit as well and created new rules for overnight ranging markets that do not follow the high low nor usually show ma trends [ie parallel and in order]

the uk session has been the hardest to trade during the holidays for me so this asian trading is a useful venture. As people have noted on the boards a lot of action has been happening in the asian session recently

however 1 night a system does not make.

but if the set up is right i'm going to do it again tonight.

 

[timm]

Just got back online after having my phone line fixed and I found I have missed out on a 9% drop on NZDJPY overnight. Another huge carry unwind.

I'm definitely getting a second broadband connection.

 

[trendie]

are you all trading the recent volatility as if it were normal?
or trading it knowing it is a sort of windfall week?

(when deciding the expectations of a system, you base it on average daily ranges, etc. anybody (newbie) thinking of trading recently may become falsely optimistic of what the market is likely to give. I have decided to treat last week and this week as "windfall" weeks, ie, trade as well as I can, but dont get dreamy about it happening all the time. )

EDIT: added the word "newbie".

 

[oiltanker]

i put sells in around 8pm on cable and yen expecting them to be the overnight trades and they quickly went to +20 and +40 so i closed them out for +60. I was hoping for a retest so i could jump back in with sells. Since then they have reversed and there are no good sells [ie in direction of ma trend] on my chart so no overnight trend trades tonight.

i have an overnight short on eur/gbp based on range trading.

edit
got stopped out.

 

[oiltanker]

looking at what happened overnight unless one stayed up till midnight or had large stops then i would not have found an entry that fitted my rules. So could not take advantage of the move down after midnight.

I see in reports the central banks e.g the aussie are intervening in fx markets in a big way. Looking at the aussie chart there is big green retrace candles in the evening yesterday which might coincide with the retraces on the other pairs that went up to midnight? Was that the central banks moving together?

as its friday i guess no one wants to hold stocks over the weekend which might mean another sell off and so more drama on fx? others say there is room to go down a lot more e.g cable 1.88 area but maybe that just reflects the panic as funds see not only the whole years growth vanish but begin to cut into last years growth?

uncertainty means fear and fear means selling so my bias is still down but with a close stop.

any takers on where cable will close tonight? I'll take 1.9650 but it might dip to 1.9580

 

[Offshore Trader]

Got quite a good entry on the short last night at 9830 and took 95 points which more than made up for the 40 I lost on EUR/JPY. The latter is a little annoying given that I was short and just got stopped out but a nice net profit, so that should be the most important thing

 

[oiltanker]

eur/jpy moves are amazing 300 pts already since midnight.

this is the first big drop i've watched close up and it does show the power that is out there?

the fxcm report says most the retail speculators have been shaken out the market which the commentators say usually signals we are close to a bottom.

cable has already touched 1.9650 !