FX Trading May 28 - June 1

[a_gnome]

“Thinking aloud”

Don’t rile me into a personal insult match. You will lose.


Show me what contribution you have made to this thread.

All I can see going back through some of your posts is:

“Hi guys, OH had a trade from this morning Long GBP/USD at X.XXXX “

And a quote from your posts. “made a nice 59pts on the yen drop with a short made earlier.”

Well we can all post here hours later and claim we made big profits from earlier trades we didn’t even mention.

Hi TPF,
Having just read through the entire thread I think that you are reading more into OilTanker's reply than there really was. I too was wondering whether your market commentary was taken from another site as the way that it is written is in that sort of style so it's a reasonable question of his to ask and I don't think that "thinking aloud" is meant to be derogatory in any way (as he has subsequently confirmed).

I think that there is room for many different styles of posting to co-exist on this thread and readers can pick and choose which ones they find useful.

 

[a_gnome]

Went long on the break-out this morning. Unfortunately there seems to have been quite a strong reaction of the 99 figure leaving my slightly underwater at present though my stop is now relatively tight. Given the steepness of the reaction we may well go back down to test the upper descending channel line that we've now broken out from. At that point either the buyers or sellers will commit or perhaps things will just dissolve into another rangy day.

 

[Atilla]

What is it you don’t understand exactly?

When I just posted my trades ie Long at x.xxxx SL at x.xxxx I got complaints “why are you just posting trades” “there is no point in just showing your trades” and more comments such as that.

Now. I give my market analysis based on much of my extensive daily research .

Now is this wrong too? Am I even welcome here at all?

You are very welcome here.

I read your posts.

I read everyones post except for one person who is on my ignore list. I think we all know who he is...

Surprised at this rally so early on. Still in the standard error channel on 4 hour and daily channels.

Looks like a breakout may be forming and I'd agree if 1.99 goes than it will go further.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Hi TPF,
Having just read through the entire thread I think that you are reading more into OilTanker's reply than there really was. I too was wondering whether your market commentary was taken from another site as the way that it is written is in that sort of style so it's a reasonable question of his to ask and I don't think that "thinking aloud" is meant to be derogatory in any way (as he has subsequently confirmed).

I think that there is room for many different styles of posting to co-exist on this thread and readers can pick and choose which ones they find useful.

It can hardly be anything else but , insulting. “thinking aloud” Gives the impression its just a casual thought off the top of my head.

I have traded for many years. I have honed a method of market insight. Which is derived from many sources of information which I have (over these years) learned to filter. Sorting the useful from the irrelevant.

It works quite well.


I am bloody annoyed…

 

[zuke]

It can hardly be anything else but , insulting. “thinking aloud” Gives the impression its just a casual thought off the top of my head.

I have traded for many years. I have honed a method of market insight. Which is derived from many sources of information which I have (over these years) learned to filter. Sorting the useful from the irrelevant.

It works quite well.


I am bloody annoyed…

TPF..Chillax, trader. I find your posts clear and insightful (irrespective of whether i agree with you or not) as Im sure others do too. FWIW, I dont think OT was being rude by saying "thining aloud"..isnt that what we are all doing anyway?

 

[Atilla]

I think there is something very self congratulatory with regard to posting in the style of (long at x.xxxx taken xx pips profit) I am continually adjusting the way I post with regard to market direction and trying to find a way of giving my view and contributing to the thread without sounding like “hey look at me , aren’t I great trader”

Purely on a personal note, I don’t wish to P--s people off by announcing I made xxx pips today.

I notice that on some blogs people quote it on others like gold nobody does.

I think like Crap Budhist, let each do their own thing. If somebody doesn't like whats posted they can always read much faster... :cheesy:

 

[trendie]

You are very welcome here.

I read your posts.

I read everyones post except for one person who is on my ignore list. I think we all know who he is...

Surprised at this rally so early on. Still in the standard error channel on 4 hour and daily channels.

Looks like a breakout may be forming and I'd agree if 1.99 goes than it will go further.

whats a standard error channel? is it similar to a Keltner?

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

28 May 2007 00:24

Dollar v Yen current level: 121.77

Expect trading to be on the sluggish side for the first 24 hours or so. Looking at the JPY to be providing the bulk of the early action overnight. The early trading should see some waning of the Dollar resilience noted of late. Dollar v Yen levels are seen at sub 121.50 stops are set just above the current levels.

28 May 2007 22:07


Yen: update

The Dollar/Yen traded as expected throughout the previous 24 hours or so. No surprises here. With the Asian open, expect progressive trading. Eyeing 121.50 from the 121.77 level. A breach will see a 121.30 exit overnight into early morning.


Dollar: Update

Dollar resilience seen on Thursday and Friday may be showing signs of exhaustion. The beginnings of a gradual weakening over the next couple of days looks possible across the currency majors. GBP could be set to test the 1.9900 key level. The Euro may be seeking out the 1.3550 levels.




29 May 2007 08:40

Yen update:

The Dollar/Yen performed precisely as expected overnight with an initial move down to the 121.50 level from the indicated sell area of 121.77 and the subsequent move lower still to the 121.20’s level. Position now closed.




29 May 2007 09:35

GBP: update

GBP has seen a very early run at the 1.9900 level. Sideways ranging at 1.9870 -1.9890 could now develop with further tests of the key level. A breach of 1.9900 (earlier rather than later) will see 1.9980 targeted.

29 May 2007 09:54

Euro: update

The Euro has traded higher, inline with expectations. Reaching 1.3470’s in early trade. It looks perfectly poised for an assault on the 1.3500 quite early on. 1.3500 if breached will see 1.3550 level targeted.


29 May 2007 11:51

GBP: update

Final update.

The GBP has made a second foray at the key 1.9900 level as expected. The ranging is now being seen at the 1.9870 area. US open will bring further headway and not unexpectedly a breach of the key level 1.9900 should follow.

 

[Atilla]

whats a standard error channel? is it similar to a Keltner?

Taken from CMC Std Err Interpretation...

Indicator allows us to know if prices are close to the linear regression line or not. The closer they are the more the trend is reliable.

On the other hand the further away they are the less reliable is the trend.

This indicator is often used in relation to R(squared I think) so as to interpret trend reversals more easily.

We can observe that when the two indciators start from oppoiste levels and converge, there is usually a change of trend taking place - iether a new phase of consolidation and / or possibly a phase of reversal.


Also, my understanding is that
1. 95% of all price movements should like within these lines if a trend is in place.
2. price gravitates towards the centre bouncing off the extremes.
3. very quick way of drawing Support and Resistance lines - best fit.

 

[Crap Buddist]

-4 on that attempt long, 60 gaveway, now short 1.9864. reading downside at the mode, hence short for whats left of any.

 

[Atilla]

-4 on that attempt long, 60 gaveway, now short 1.9864. reading downside at the mode, hence short for whats left of any.

I'm sitting out for a while until clear direction is given. Cable is trying to make up it's mind at the mo.

 

[a_gnome]

Went long on the break-out this morning. Unfortunately there seems to have been quite a strong reaction of the 99 figure leaving my slightly underwater at present though my stop is now relatively tight. Given the steepness of the reaction we may well go back down to test the upper descending channel line that we've now broken out from. At that point either the buyers or sellers will commit or perhaps things will just dissolve into another rangy day.

OK, I've been stopped out of the trade. It did then indeed test the upper descending channel line and has bounced off that level. Let's see if we have enough conviction to take it back up to the figure.

 

[zuke]

I am biased short, but still on the sidelines, until I see clear direction. Very tempted to short in the 9880-9885 area...oh well! have to stick tot he plan and not go chasing trades!

 

[wasp]

Couldn't resist...

Short 50 lots at 1.9860
Stop at 2.0250
Target at 1.7750

:cheesy:

 

[JER08]

What's more certain is that cable either at around 1.9675 or 2 by next Monday.
It'll probably finish between 9900 and 9820 today, take out 9820 either Thurs or Friday, and Friday's NFP will give clearer picture of where it want to go.:idea:

 

[trendie]

from a 1-2-3 point of view, if the close-11-am bar is the 1-point (the high), then the close-of-13-pm bar has the 2-point. (the low)
the latest bar, close-14-pm, has shown a higher-high and higher-low, all set to complete the 1-2-3 move with a break of the 13-pm bar low.

(phew, should have just posted a piccie)

 

[zuke]

from a 1-2-3 point of view, if the close-11-am bar is the 1-point (the high), then the close-of-13-pm bar has the 2-point. (the low)
the latest bar, close-14-pm, has shown a higher-high and higher-low, all set to complete the 1-2-3 move with a break of the 13-pm bar low.

(phew, should have just posted a piccie)

..it says a thousand words you know?

 

[trendie]

..it says a thousand words you know?

there you go!

 

[trendie]

getting a little better with the patience thing, but still bailed out.
(went short 1.9880, (upper-Boll-band strike on 4-hrs), and exit at 836 for +44.)

 

[trendie]

coming up to 16-pm, so US-session almost over in terms of big moves.

the day will end as a doji, with the pointy-bit at same level as May-23rds high.
(assuming no action until midnight)

is the consensus that it should tumble lower ?
or what needs to happen for a up-move to be justified?

EDIT: should have exited NOW. lower-boll-band strike on the 4-hrs. missed out on an extra 16 pips. (1.9820)