FX Trading June 11th - 15th

[Crap Buddist]

I don't know about helping out with J's house but CB I would be delighted help you out with the B&Q and the beers.:cheesy:


PS. What is your stop loss to the upside and target for the downside?

Stop wise, disaster stop above 1.9710 at the mo. I have to allow for any volatility and then look for an exit. Biggest threat would be a one way tanking up.

Downside, again based on what the market does, I try not to think of targets unless im going counter trend , bigger trend im seeing still down, fair value shorts 1.9670/80, excellent value 1.9680 +

This short trend showing on my setup may well run into tomorrow, if we get a prod (today) sub 19650 heading to 1.9620 test I'll consider closing depending on time of day, dont want to be sat here (ideally) beyond 6 pm hawking the screen ... Depends on how it looks at the time. And what the market does.

But at the mo I can pop around and check every 15 mins or so. And not really need to do anything unless it starts closing and holding above 1.9680/90.

 

[Atilla]

Stop wise, disaster stop above 1.9710 at the mo. I have to allow for any volatility and then look for an exit. Biggest threat would be a one way tanking up.

Downside, again based on what the market does, I try not to think of targets unless im going counter trend , bigger trend im seeing still down, fair value shorts 1.9670/80, excellent value 1.9680 +

This short trend showing on my setup may well run into tomorrow, if we get a prod (today) sub 19650 heading to 1.9620 test I'll consider closing depending on time of day, dont want to be sat here (ideally) beyond 6 pm hawking the screen ... Depends on how it looks at the time. And what the market does.

But at the mo I can pop around and check every 15 mins or so. And not really need to do anything unless it starts closing and holding above 1.9680/90.

Thank you CB. Re evaluating it I think 1.9670 looks like has formed good SAR up and down. I'll hold my position longer. Pretty much the same sentiments - checking position once in a while.



Closed position @ 1.9683 better to get some pips then risk this piddle range bound day moving against me.

 

[jacinto]

well, took the short on euryen @ 162.70 nonetheless, stop at BE as it is past my bedtime, and we shall see if we get 250 pips out of this one :cheesy:

and if it dont work, ill just reshort it at a better price

stopped out on remainder. so +15 on 50% or 7.5 pips after being up +50ish. bit annoying. the move up caught me when i took my kid to school, so nothing to do there. I expected cable to range, but not euryen. mistake there.

given todays action, wont reshort till i get a new pattern-entry. looking for price to dictate direction depending on what happens @ 162.85, so open to longs there. will see.


what an awful day. till tomorrow

j

oh, forgot to add: would like the daily bar on cable to close below 75. otherwise, I may have to temporarily remove my vendor tag

 

[oiltanker]

cot report

Euro Longs Decline as Psychology Shifts from Bullish to Bearish

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charti...ongs_Decline_as_Psychology_1181575455100.html

cable short got stopped out at 698 for -31
euro short still in play [eur and £ don't seem in sync today]
yen long still in play [ which is what my chart tells me to do but my brain says sell sell sell.]
usd/chf long still in play.

earlier all of that was up 30 pts now it ain't. still have reverse orders in play to catch any contra movement. one thing i see if its ranging you need bigger stops [than when trending] if you are waiting for a trend move. Or one needs to put the orders further out so they don't get triggered. they found my euro orders to the pip.

anyone know how to get the cot report in relevant format earlier?

 

[oiltanker]

on second thoughts if waiting for a trend you could have really tight stops because if the trend is in then your'e off . think i will do that next time.

 

[Atilla]

Upside cable bias seems to have been the correct view but I'm dissapointed with the move. I should have held my position longer too instead of the 10 pips. Benefit of hindsight is such a bad thing to do.

Small warning today in that brushing up to 1.97 is not the same thing as knocking it down with a big tackle... Cable is very tentative not convincing in it's move.

Tomorrow I think we are going to have a small pull back followed by another test of 1.97 and hopefuly reach 730-740 regions.

Good night everyone.

 

[oiltanker]

in fact as no trend in place i have closed out all positions for small losses [3-5pts]. makes more sense. live to fight another day. this trend trading is much different than pivots where the orders [r2, r3] would not have been activated at all today.

 

[Splitlink]

Big spike on GBP/US$ , around 30 points, late last evening. When this retreated to its original level but made no effort to go down further, the price went up to around the top of the spike level, steadied and then went higher.

Split

 

[jacinto]

morning all,

flat cable now. was a good run. will wait for after the news to have a view. for the time being expecting a test of 9775, if cable is to continue its move down, other wise expeciting consolidiation between 9730 and 9820.

please not another range for this week.

PS: CB, when are you going to trade in my house, cause it is a complete mess

 

[brutusdog]

morning all,

flat cable now. was a good run. will wait for after the news to have a view. for the time being expecting a test of 9775, if cable is to continue its move down, other wise expeciting consolidiation between 9730 and 9820.

please not another range for this week.

PS: CB, when are you going to trade in my house, cause it is a complete mess

just gone short cable at 9735 20 point stop....

 

[Crap Buddist]

morning all,


PS: CB, when are you going to trade in my house, cause it is a complete mess

Well, today I'd be round there swigging back the tequila after those bloody asians working all the stop orders to the upside...

Mine went 1.9716. My setup flicked long at Midnight 1.9690 zone, Im pretty p!ssed that I can sit here for 2 sessions off and on then those book passers have the front to shaft all the europeans whilst they sleep.

I could set alerts, but i think the wife would flip her lid if sirens started blasting off in the night . I dont think there would be anything wrong with it though.

Mojo update attached.

Atila ? That 1.9750 you tempted to go with that dream you had?

 

[jacinto]

just gone short cable at 9735 20 point stop....

you read my mind. good luck brutus. i have a child to take to school, so will have to wait.

 

[jacinto]

Well, today I'd be round there swigging back the tequila after those bloody asians working all the stop orders to the upside...

Mine went 1.9716. My setup flicked long at Midnight 1.9690 zone, Im pretty p!ssed that I can sit here for 2 sessions off and on then those book passers have the front to shaft all the europeans whilst they sleep.

I could set alerts, but i think the wife would flip her lid if sirens started blasting off in the night . I dont think there would be anything wrong with it though.

Mojo update attached.

Atila ? That 1.9750 you tempted to go with that dream you had?

sorry to hear that cb, same here, got stopped on the swinger above 30, but well, will have to wait for another setup.

have a look at my mojos, these work best on longer timeframes, though the hourlies are also good.

ah, and I'm cooking, ok....how about andouillette (chiterling sausage) on a white wine and mustard sauce :cheesy:

j

 

[brutusdog]

you read my mind. good luck brutus. i have a child to take to school, so will have to wait.

needs to get below 9730 to work as usuall entered a bit early....maybe i will have to have kids might slow me down a bit

 

[jacinto]

needs to get below 9730 to work as usuall entered a bit early....maybe i will have to have kids might slow me down a bit

well, that will definitely slow you a lot, particularly if you have to shave them every morning

 

[Crap Buddist]

Short

 

[jacinto]

i hope im wrong, but failure to bust 9690 and 9750 make me think of a european session range. bu99er.

in case anyone is interested

12 Jun 2007 08:55 GMT


BULLET: MNI CABLE TECH: Downside Risks Building - Eyeing At..
MNI CABLE TECH: Downside Risks Building - Eyeing Support Line At $1.9625
RES 4: $1.9968 Daily high 5 June, 61.8% of $1.9680/$2.0133
RES 3: $1.9843 Trendline from 18 April
RES 2: $1.9800 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.9760 5-day moving average
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.9705
SUP 1: $1.9687 50.0% of $1.9754 to $1.9623
SUP 2: $1.9625 Support line from 16 Oct
SUP 3: $1.9590 Daily low 9 Apr
SUP 4: $1.9550 Daily low 30 Mar
COMMENTARY: Cable is under pressure and break below $1.9687 -- 50.0% of
$1.9754 to $1.9623 move -- seen extending weakness to support line from
October 16, which is today valued at $1.9625. The bear-divergence
signals on daily slow-stochastic study is implying a break below this
trend line to target the daily Bollinger band base at $1.9650.

Provided by: Market News International

 

[Atilla]

Short

Good morning all,

Agree with you CB, nothing all day yesterday other than about 10 pips for me and market quite dull and then in the late evening sessions it kicks off. I did see some of the move kicking off but couldn't be bovered - as you rightly say I too didn't wish to disturb the equilibrium with the family dynamics and I also wanted to watch Prison Break, followed by Alan Sugar on why I fired him .

On cable this morning just gone long now @ 1.9711, SL @ 1.9690.

I can see a possible BB break out forming. It could be a false breakout but got to go with the plan.

On the dream I'm now reflecting and now wondering if the mad geezer banging on the door was trying to tell me to get out at 1.9750

The dream is true but now I'm really disturbed as it wasn't a nice one. Pretty dark and not very nice being got out of bed in the middle of the night.

I think in general, the move towards $2 got rejected at 1.995 and we dropped pretty fast and hard to 1.960 and now that too has been supported we are back up. If 1.9750 is breached then 1.98+ is well within targets.

Also looking at this chart I'm thinking we are trending down since April and may just continue in this trend. Not clear cut at all. We have fallen through the long term upward support lines too. I can read this chart two ways. Is this skill or indecision not knowing how to read it?

Based on MACD and MAs I'm going with the long position. I'll have to listen out to those nutters knocking inside my head though just incase we do go pants.

Good trading everyone.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Hopefully sub 1.9700 will go, and I hope Atilla went short with his weird dream, I did 1.9742, well that and the S.T mojo's . However longer term mojos flagged a buy entry circa 1.97, so may well go back up, I'll flip when and if the short terms flip up.

I remember reading in Market wizards some trader was off by a big number (he was sure he'd seen it or something) trading the Deutche Mark, and he went with it.

I have not experienced any weird dreams involving seeing numbers etc. but its an interesting area.

 

[Crap Buddist]

On the dream I'm now reflecting and now wondering if the mad geezer banging on the door was trying to tell me to get out at 1.9750

The dream is true but now I'm really disturbed as it wasn't a nice one. Pretty dark and not very nice being got out of bed in the middle of the night.

For some reason, I naturally translated it as a possible reverse point or place to get short for any continuation.

Kinda like the bloke knocking and meaning Oi, 1.9750 get short there buddy. especially as the market was trading 1.9650/80 at the time.

Weird things dreams.... what the hells going on ?

Anyway, all the best with the long. Looking good at the mo.