FTSE 100 - May

[Hooya]

FTSE behaving very strongly.....dow was near 400 last time we were up here.

 

[bracke]

RogerM

So it appears VS has been repeating what others have said. No harm in that if you give credit to the originator.

Referring to MGBRoadsters post that "most of the big gainers have the open as the LOD" what does this mean exactly.

Regards

bracke

 

[mully]

Nice positive bounce off the 1 day SMA.

 

[RogerM]

Bracke - most of the FTSE100 stocks that have put in a strong performance today opened at their lowest price today and have not dipped below it at any stage - i.e. they would appear to be in a steady uptrend. e.g. BP, VOD, GSK, AZN, SHEL

 

[mully]

Not only a bounce of the 1 day SMA, but also the trendline (from 6202), which had been acting as resistance, appears to have provided support.

Change of characteristic for FTSE100?

 

[RogerM]

Nice charts Mully. Any particular reason you use MA12 and MA102 ?

 

[bracke]

RogerM

Now I understand! Thank you for your patient assistance.

Regards

bracke

 

[Hooya]

1hr and 1 day ma on a 5 min chart

 

[RogerM]

Ahhh! The logic is impeccable - thanks Hooya.

 

[mully]

RogerM

They are the 1 hour (60min/5=12) and 1 day (510mins/5=102) SMA for a 5 minute chart

a la Bonsai system.

Hope that answers your question.

Must be getting slow. Didn't see Hooya reply

 

[RogerM]

Thanks mully - I knew there had to be a sound reason for the numbers. I must have missed the Bonsai system. Is there a thread that outlines the basis for it?

Thnks.

 

[mully]

For those of you wondering why the FTSE100 rose 49bps to-day, here is a clue.

I have included two attachments.

1) shows the basis contribution to the FTSE 100 movement. FTSE 100 had a defensive move today. Note the contribution of BP, Shell, GSK , AZN ( defensive).
The biggie positive today was VOD, but it was offset by RBOS

2) a graphical representation of the above.

Any comments greatfully appreciated about the enclosed.

 

[Hooya]

BP finished a 10mill share buy back though.

 

[mully]

Well another positive day for the FTSE100.

The red trendline from 4602 has been breached suggesting a new positive trend is underway.

The blue positive trend line appears intact. (there was a single breach, but that was quickly repulsed.

The 1 day SMA is still rising. (It also rejected a test by the FTSE.)

Hooya Fib retracement level at 4559 (68%) was breached.

So, all in all, one has to remain positively disposed towards the index.

In character, the up move in the FTSE100 is being driven by the Oils and Pharmaceuticals (a defensive stance?) and by Vodafone. This has been true since the FTSE100 turned positive on the 24/03/2004.

If RBOS had not been hit the index could have been 0.25% higher (another 11 points).

I am still wary of the US employment data on Friday. Obviously, a very strong report would get the interest rate junkies upset and impact markets.

So it is no surprise that markets are not showing too much conviction at the moment.
But this appears to be playing to FTSE's defensive qualities (composition) .

Hope you all had a successful day.

 

[MGBRoadster]

"I think most of the big gainers have the open as the LOD, ".

Bracke,

Sorry I wasn't clear before.

Most of the months where there has been a large rise on the first day (which is what I'm looking for ) have had the opening price as the lowest price of the day.

eg in 2003 the following months were "big gainers", and the opening price was within 2 points of the Low:

Feb 122
Apr 71
Jun 81
Sep 43
Oct 78
Nov 45
Dec 67

So if the price falls below the Open I get out of the trade

January 2003 had a 69 point gain after a 25 point drop, but no system's perfect !!! LOL


RogerM,

I haven't read "How I Trade for a Living". Thanks for the info

 

[mully]

Watch BP. New high for the year at 504p +6p. Remember it is nearly 10% of the FTSE100.

 

[mully]

Here is another test of the rally. It has retreated to the rising 1 day SMA.

 

[mully]

For those of a negative bias and who use MACD. Do you consider the divergence of the MACD and price as significant?

 

[bonsai]

Hi mully
a couple of things ?
there seems to have been a spike again yesterday at about 11.30 and once again the market tested it before falling back

Divergence ?
mine has just hit zero, so now is the test
but in itself, I wouldnt think this divergence is significant
(however a/d does need to steady up)

it often happens after a rapid preceding surge which has taken it from oversold to overbought.
- its a very short indicator -

 

[mully]

Nice to hear from you Bonsai. Hope you do not mind me hosting the May thread.

The drop below the 1 day SMA, followed by the failed attempt to go back above the 1 day SMA doesn't bode too well for the FTSE100 short term.