Forex Profit Monster - 4H TF

[fxtrader85]

yoohoo, exactly. Very wide SL. I'm using this system via a sb platform. I never use the system signals, usually parabolic sr or s/r. I find the exit arrows come too late. Sure, sometimes they come at a brilliant time that eeks the most pips out of a trade but I've found this situation isn't the norm.I suppose it all depends. I sometimes change my SL when in blue to lock profits. In that example I posted, I would have set a SL in between those 3 bullish candles. You have to get a feel for what you see happening, everyone's different. Perhaps we all have different profit targets. Some people will say once there 100 pips in profit they'll exit regardless. You need to have a gameplan. Hope this doesn't sound preachy because I'm new to all this like eveyone else, just a few things I've noticed...

I remember a friend saying to me a while back that he could teach me a momentum equities system but he wouldn't because I simply wouldn't follow it to a t and that was imperative for the system to work. I said he was wrong...I now see he was right

 

[fx4e]

Don't agree. I've looked over some past 4h signals and they are fairly accurate. Of course, at times you may find yourself down 200 pips or so, but that's bound to happen with ANY trend following system. With good MM you CAN cope with this easily. I've just looked at my charts and literally taken the first 4H signal that I found....

Check the attachment, the most you'd be down is 104 pips...

Hello fxtrader85

thanks for your reply.

I take a report of all the trades and, yes, if I manage strictly to the author's rules, I am losing many money.

Maybe, it depends on the range period, or maybe I mkke something worng, i don't know exactly.

But I know that it's not working for me as for others.

 

[fxtrader85]

Hello fxtrader85

thanks for your reply.

I take a report of all the trades and, yes, if I manage strictly to the author's rules, I am losing many money.

Maybe, it depends on the range period, or maybe I mkke something worng, i don't know exactly.

But I know that it's not working for me as for others.

This doesn't make sense. It cannot work for me and not work for you. If we follow the system are entrys are near enough identical (except for a few pips, give or take) The only thing that's different would be our exit strategies. I cannot see one 4h signal on the majors that didn't eventually run into a profit. Post examples like the one I just posted. I want to see this...you may have to adapt your exit strategy...

 

[fx4e]

Hello yoohoo999,

thanks for your reply.

do you work on the basis that your s/l is simply there to cover disasters and that you keep it wide enough to allow the trend to move (ie 250 pips on a pair with an ADR of 100 pips), and then exit only on a generated signal?

Yes I do.
I manage the size for MM based on the value of ADR
and put the stop as above

I've had a quick look back through most of the pairs, and it seems that allowing the system to determine the stop itself incurs much lower losses than if you get stopped out at the ADR with your own stop loss.

Would you explain me better this point please?

Another thing to be clear: never happened before to exit at the "disaster stop loss"; always exit with the small white contrarian arrow.

Many thanks

 

[fx4e]

This doesn't make sense. It cannot work for me and not work for you. If we follow the system are entrys are near enough identical (except for a few pips, give or take) The only thing that's different would be our exit strategies. I cannot see one 4h signal on the majors that didn't eventually run into a profit. Post examples like the one I just posted. I want to see this...you may have to adapt your exit strategy...

Sure is an exit issue what's wrong.

if you'd take a look at the charts in my blog as examples it'll be a pleasure.

Many thanks

 

[fxtrader85]

I'll have a look now...could you explain the ADR indicator and how it helps mm. I've read about it but never fully grasped it...

 

[fx4e]

I'll have a look now...could you explain the ADR indicator and how it helps mm. I've read about it but never fully grasped it...

I'll use it to calculate the position size
MM > 1% risk > ADR = SL

 

[pipsmasterone]

Hello all

I have attempted to dissect this system and basically figured out that the fast trend indicator is basically Jurik's RSX indicator and slow trend indicator is a basic MACD indicator, as per entry and exit arrows - 50 period moving average gets you in and out or something to that effect, I have played around with a Trix indicator as far as getting better exits and most of the time you get better performance when compared to using standard rules - it reduces the chances of being whipped to death however it will get you out early on these 700 pip runs. I do feel that Profit Monster is a very good system, it is better and more consistent than anything I have come across so far, almost every month you will get a big run (when all or most positions will move big in your direction) like the one we are having at this moment. I do go crazy on the first friday of every month at 8:30 am. EST lol

 

[Noltisy]

Hello,

I thought I would show you my results for February using FPM out of the box just like Jim says. I do exit sometimes a bit early, but for the most part I exit at the Exit Arrows. I do have some trades using .01 lots that I was starting to test the Williams Chaos theory, so only the trades with .05 lots are using FPM...so if you take out the .01 lot trades the profit this month would be a bit higher. I did miss a few trades that would have lost money with EUR/UDS, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF because the signals came in at 2am my time.

Noltisy

 

[ajnath]

Hello,

I thought I would show you my results for February using FPM out of the box just like Jim says. I do exit sometimes a bit early, but for the most part I exit at the Exit Arrows. I do have some trades using .01 lots that I was starting to test the Williams Chaos theory, so only the trades with .05 lots are using FPM...so if you take out the .01 lot trades the profit this month would be a bit higher. I did miss a few trades that would have lost money with EUR/UDS, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF because the signals came in at 2am my time.

Noltisy

Hi thanks for sharing this. assuming you are trading the 4hr time frame I notice you closed the gbpjpy trade that was triggered on 22/2. Following the rules this trade should still be open (as I have) and is currently over 600 pips in profit. What was your reason for closing?

Also are you taking every trade across all pairs or limiting to only 2 or 3 open positons at any one time?

 

[Noltisy]

Hi thanks for sharing this. assuming you are trading the 4hr time frame I notice you closed the gbpjpy trade that was triggered on 22/2. Following the rules this trade should still be open (as I have) and is currently over 600 pips in profit. What was your reason for closing?

Also are you taking every trade across all pairs or limiting to only 2 or 3 open positons at any one time?

Hi ajnath,

You are right...I did close that early. You will also notice that I closed out about 5 or 6 other pairs around the same time. NERVES did that to me. You see in the 4 or 5 hours preceding the pairs I had open, my balance went from about -$1 all the way up to about $38. The volatility worked in my favor, but it was a little after 10pm (the time I go to bed) and I was not going to get up at 2am to see where the pairs were. I didn't want to wake up at 6am to check on my trades and see I lost all of that profit. The downside was I would have made even more had I held on to them, but I think all of the pairs except USDCHF and EURUSD would still be open...some would be in the money like GBPJPY and some would be negative right now. So overall it was a good move, but you are right GBPJPY would have made a lot of pips had I kept it open. If I can watch my Forex account I usually do keep the trades until the Exit Arrow...but at times when I get nervous and can't check on it for 8 hours...I pull the trigger and sell.

Also, I take as many trades as I can at once. I have had 7 of the possible 8 pairs open at one time.

Noltisy

 

[dreadnought101]

Hi to all who have contributed to this thread to date. I was unaware that it existed until very recently and although I have never posted on this forum before I feel that I may be able to add some value as I have been using FPM for some time.

I began trading on a live account in mid July 09, using the 4H charts and since that time I have only missed one candle close. This has meant getting used to my trading alarm going off in the middle of every night and dragging myself out of bed to monitor the charts. It really is crucial when trading a system like this that you commit to monitoring every candle close, as missing just one entry can have a very detrimental effect on your monthly figures.

I have found the creator of FPM, “Jim”, to be an honest, straightforward individual who has always taken the time to provide some highly detailed responses to the many questions I have had. He really is one of the few good guys out there in a world of scam artists.

Overall I am fairly happy with the system although that is not to say that I haven’t had a few difficulties with my trading over the last 9 months. I would say that the primary cause of these difficulties is down to my own tinkering rather than any inherent flaws within FPM.

I currently trade 7 of the recommended pairs, I do not trade the USD/CHF. I have traded other pairs, specifically; AUD/YEN, CAD/YEN & NZD/USD. I no longer trade these pairs.

FPM has thrown many challenges over the last 9 months which can be very difficult to deal with from a psychological perspective. Watching a GBP/YEN trade go from +300 pips to an exit of -100 pips is pretty hard to take and leads people to question the exit strategy employed. I have been down this road myself and experimented with differing strategies.

What initially attracted me to FPM was that it is a trend following system in the mould of trading giants such as Dennis, Seykota, Dunn etc. and I was really looking for a system that was as mechanical as possible with the minimum of discretion. Whilst the entries with FPM are very straightforward there are many different permutations for exits. From my experiences to date this is how I currently use the system.

ENTRIES:
I take every valid entry signal, no second guessing. Whenever I have had a view on things that view has more often been wrong than right.
I do not take any re-entry signals for any pair. Re-entry arrows have been a thorny issue for many months and I have gone from taking them all (full position) to all (half position) and a whole load of other criteria based on the condition of the slow trend. I now ignore them completely and I know that from comparing my results with Jim’s he rarely takes them as well.

EXITS:
I initially used the S/R levels for my exit points, I have stopped doing this as I have come to the conclusion that they will hurt you more in the long run. I have lost count of the number of times the price has just crashed through these levels. From lengthy communication with Jim I can also confirm that he rarely uses S/R levels as an exit trigger.

From countless hours of back testing my current strategy is to open 2 positions for each pair, the first target is to help hedge my bets for choppy, ranging markets and the 2nd target is geared towards locking in as much of the trend as possible.

My exit strategy varies for each pair I trade and is currently as follows:

GBP/USD – Wait for white exit arrow. Then wait for fast trend xover. I will not exit on the arrow unless the FT has crossed already. Generally the arrow will appear before the crossover. If the FT crosses and there has been no arrow then no exit. It has to happen in sequence. Always exit on large alert arrow in opposite direction to trade. 2 positions opened simultaneously, 1st position has a 90 pip trigger with a SL of 85. 2nd position has a 295 pip trigger with a 290 pip stop loss.

EUR/USD - Wait for white exit arrow. Then wait for fast trend xover. I will not exit on the arrow unless the FT has crossed already. If the FT crosses and there has been no arrow then no exit. It has to happen in sequence. Always exit on large alert arrow in opposite direction to trade. 2 positions opened simultaneously, 1st position has a 140 pip trigger with a SL of 130. 2nd position has a 215 pip trigger with a 210 pip stop loss.

USD/YEN – Ignore white exit arrows, only exit on the FT crossover or the large red/green entry arrow in the opposite direction of trade. Only one position taken with a 215 pip trigger and a 200pip SL.

EUR/YEN – Exit on fast trend crossover only, ignore all white arrows and do not exit on large red/green entry arrow in opposite direction to trade. This is contrary to Jim’s rules. 2 positions opened simultaneously, 1st position has a 255 pip trigger with a SL of 240. 2nd position has a 675 pip trigger with a 670 pip stop loss.

GBP/YEN - Exit on fast trend crossover only, ignore all white arrows and do not exit on large red/green entry arrow in opposite direction to trade. 2 positions opened simultaneously, 1st position has a 750 pip trigger with a SL of 745. 2nd position has a 770 pip trigger with a 760 pip stop loss. Both of these positions have a high trigger but I have been unable to locate a “sweet spot” with a lower target that does not adversely affect returns.

USD/CAD - Exit on fast trend crossover only, ignore all white arrows and exit on large red/green entry arrow in opposite direction to trade. 2 positions opened simultaneously, 1st position has a 260 pip trigger with a SL of 245. 2nd position has a 480 pip trigger with a 475 pip stop loss.

AUD/USD - Wait for white exit arrow. Then wait for fast trend xover. I will not exit on the arrow unless the FT has crossed already. Generally the arrow will appear before the crossover. If the FT crosses and there has been no arrow then no exit. It has to happen in sequence. Always exit on large alert arrow in opposite direction to trade. 2 positions opened simultaneously, 1st position has a 280 pip trigger with a SL of 275. 2nd position has a 600 pip trigger with a 595 pip stop loss.

The figures and exit strategies chosen have been determined by extensive back testing over the last 3 years. I have had a programmer code an EA for me to work specifically with FPM and by running extensive backrests and my experience with the system I have arrived at the above parameters. Am I guilty of over optimising the settings based on market events covering the last 3 years? Probably.

It is unlikely that the settings I am using will prove perfect for the markets that lie ahead but it is my best guess at the current time. I will review and adapt these settings as time progresses.

Regarding stop losses, I no longer place them on any trade. Jim does advocate an emergency stop outside the moving average lines in the opposite direction of the trade. I did do this initially but to be honest I have on occasion found that to be a little tight and did suffer from a few stopped our trades that could have done well. The only exception to the above rule is on NFP day when the extreme volatility has led me to place protective stops on my positions.

Apologies for the length of this post but if any of the knowledge I have gained from using FPM can help other traders then that is good. I would not class myself as an experienced FX trader as I have only been trading for the last 18 months.

Best of luck in your use of the system.

 

[salvadorveiga]

sorry, I don't quite follow.

could you give me an example?

for example, at the last point of entry on GBP/USD (4H), the ATR was around 67. Are you saying that you place a stop 67 pips away from entry?

sorry if i'm being a little slow with this!

sorry to post this so late but it goes something like this:

the real stop is the red line and all money management is calculated from the entry point up to that line... the yellow line i risk 1/4 of my normal risk in order to add to the position...


so imagine you have 100,000 USD on your account. you risk 2% and the stop is 250 pips away.

2000/.0250 = 0.8 lots

them imagine the trade goes a bit in our favor and the volatility stop is already at breakeven at least... IF and once pricce touches the yellow line I risk 0.5% of my account with a stop at red line.

what is the goal of this? this is an attempt of the strategy to add a lot to the position with minimal risk right before the change of a trend... if the trend ends up changing then the loss on this additional position is very small 0.5% while if the price reverses from there your gainss are very big, since the position often times is big due to the tight stop.

in this case for example the yellow line triggered a buy, and the red line which is the stop was only 30 pips away, meaning 500/0.0030 = 1.66 lots

so if it reverses you will now have 2.5 lots with minimum risk.

see picture with an example of a trade...

so in theory we're adding at points that offer supporrt but that at same time are very close to the change of the trend... if trernd is able to keep going then we'll profit big from the new additional positions... if not and we're stopped out, the loss is pretty small.

of course new positions are only added as long as the previous entries are at least breakeven

 

[davewooldridge]

Dreadnought, you state the difficulties you had were with tinkering with the system. Based on your exit rules however that tinkering has proved valid in you back testing. Can you share with us the back test results? For example the exits ignoring the opposite arrows how many trades and how did the resuls differ? I know the time involved in thesse tests and appreciate your posts, as I too struggle with eits. Dave

 

[dreadnought101]

Dreadnought, you state the difficulties you had were with tinkering with the system. Based on your exit rules however that tinkering has proved valid in you back testing. Can you share with us the back test results? For example the exits ignoring the opposite arrows how many trades and how did the resuls differ? I know the time involved in thesse tests and appreciate your posts, as I too struggle with eits. Dave

Hi Dave, I'll try and put together some more detailed info on the backtesting I have done to try and optimise the exits, when I get a chance.

 

[davewooldridge]

I have been looking at the trendlines lately and they sure seem accurate. I am considering taking profits at them, for example audusd just bounced off one and usdchf has also.

 

[davewooldridge]

Anybody out there? Bueller?

 

[davewooldridge]

thread dying

 

[yoohoo999]

why do you keep posting such completely pointless posts in a thread which has been contributed to so helpfully by countless posters over such a long period of time???

There's more information for free in here than you could reasonably get by paying for someone to coach you.

of course there's people out there. but they are trying to develop trading strategies or getting on with their normal lives, not responding to your constant need for attention.

Get a grip.

I appreciate that I've hardly been a member of this board long and have asked more questions that I have given answers, however this whole "thread dying" thing is really getting on my nerves. If you don't want it to die, contribute. If you have a question that isn't being answered, ask Jim (that is of course if you actually purchased a legitimate copy)


This is a summary of every one of your posts on this board so far:

Anyone ever read this thread? Ingot?

How are you guys esiting? Spt res,arrows or fast trend or whichever happens first? Or a different method?

Ivan you using mtf stoch still?

ivan, are you using mtf stoch?

stick to the rules.

thread dying

Long gbpusd at 1.6703 short usdjpy at 89.65

Anyone done a back test to see the differences in profit, drawdown closing on arrow/fast trend versus spt/res?

Closed usdchf long due to pinbar at resistance. Closed usdcad long due to res 50 pips away and weekend coming up. Clsd audusd short due to pinbar at daily spt.

test

Thread dying

thread dead.

Anywhere else anyone using fpm? Bueller?

wow what a day. Once again faced withthe dilemma of profits in hand, moving stops up to break even. Hate giving back profits and still struggling with tp at spt res fast trend or arrow.

fxtrader sounds good. I am encouraged that this system is finally getting some action.

DL66. Thanks for your hard work. Curious what program to open ur spt res file, cant open it. ALso I assume therefore you dont use the spt res that comes with fpm?

is that s/r indicator superior to the one in fpm already?

Another frustrating, but profitable week. Its driving me nuts to get these big gains and then give it back. I am being strictly mechanical, exiting on the arrow or fast trend, not resistance.

I do notice the hourly gave an exit much sooner, anyone using the hourly to fine tune entries or exits?

Dreadnought, you state the difficulties you had were with tinkering with the system. Based on your exit rules however that tinkering has proved valid in you back testing. Can you share with us the...

I have been looking at the trendlines lately and they sure seem accurate. I am considering taking profits at them, for example audusd just bounced off one and usdchf has also.

Anybody out there? Bueller?

thread dying

 

[davewooldridge]

Wow. Never heard of you and your first post to me is I am needy, stole the system somehow, dont appreciate other posters, and have never made a worthwhile post. Not sure why the hostility. I have posted about mtf stochastics as pertains to Ingot with whom I traded ideas with this on another forum, trade entries I am in, price action as it relates to the system exit aka pinbar, inquiries as to how others exit, and most recently the observation of trendline accuracy. Obviously I have the system otherwise I wouldnt be able to ask about fast trend, slow trend etc. Each post has been met with some replies, but not much in the way of follow on discussion. By posting thread dying, that is an inquiry to see if anyone is even out there, or my postings are a waste of time. Need for attention? A post every 5 days or so is constant? How the heck does posting my thoughts equate to that? If thats the case then every poster is need of attention. If you define attention as desiring responses to posts to foster discussion then so be it. You seriously need to take a chill pill dude, life is too short to obsess over what other people do.