Mike Forex
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Wise,
We have already tested this and there is no improvement to be made with any 2nd BE settings that we can find on a long term test.
We appreciate the ideas though! :idea:
Mike
The Forex Club
Euro Daily Trader
- Thread starter wiseambitions
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Wise,
We have already tested this and there is no improvement to be made with any 2nd BE settings that we can find on a long term test.
We appreciate the ideas though! :idea:
Mike
The Forex Club
wiseambitions
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OK, fair enough. However my observation is that it is the +9 reset which gives the system the biggest boost, and I suppose with a system like this there are 5 big variables to work on for a given pair
1) Best start time
2) entry indicator signals
3) TP
4) SL
5) Mid trade resetting
My thoughts on it all are that seeing as most trades go to SL then perhaps there's an opportunity to reduce from -19 to a lesser loss even if it had to be say -10 on having achieved let's say 10 pips of progress. The TP and TS upon it has been addressed (hope it demonstrates itself soon - it does already show in back tests). Then we come to the BE. +9 is much better than +1, however it is still agonising to miss TP with say 35 pips but only trap 9 of them.
Monday night, SL, after about 8 hours. It wanted to go up but kept dipping first. Never mind. Hope for better next time.
1) Best start time
2) entry indicator signals
3) TP
4) SL
5) Mid trade resetting
My thoughts on it all are that seeing as most trades go to SL then perhaps there's an opportunity to reduce from -19 to a lesser loss even if it had to be say -10 on having achieved let's say 10 pips of progress. The TP and TS upon it has been addressed (hope it demonstrates itself soon - it does already show in back tests). Then we come to the BE. +9 is much better than +1, however it is still agonising to miss TP with say 35 pips but only trap 9 of them.
Monday night, SL, after about 8 hours. It wanted to go up but kept dipping first. Never mind. Hope for better next time.
Mike Forex
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Most definitely a short signal tonight and we finished with +20 pips as the Early Friday Close activated at 9pm (London).
I don't think I would be on my own if I said I am glad to see the back of that week!
Have a good weekend all.
Mike
The Forex Club
I don't think I would be on my own if I said I am glad to see the back of that week!
Have a good weekend all.
Mike
The Forex Club
wiseambitions
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No, it was possibly the worst week I can remember. I don't know what went wrong, the markets seemed to be ranging at points where at starting times the indicators (whatever they are - and there are several which would be appropriate for the purpose) weren't aligned with the instant price movement.
2 wins would put us back to the start position for the month, and 3 or 4 would put us in profit and on target for average achievements of the past.
It's a full 2 weeks since I saw TP
Please let our luck improve now as we need reassurance that nothing is irrepairably broken!
Last night's 21 pips at 9pm with forced closure were exactly on time, the price went the wrong way after.
2 wins would put us back to the start position for the month, and 3 or 4 would put us in profit and on target for average achievements of the past.
It's a full 2 weeks since I saw TP
Please let our luck improve now as we need reassurance that nothing is irrepairably broken!Last night's 21 pips at 9pm with forced closure were exactly on time, the price went the wrong way after.
Lukkana:
I must agree with you. I have been running this on a live account for 4 months. In order for this system to make money, it needs to have more than one winning trade for every two losing trades. December is the only month this happened for me and just barely - with exactly 1 win for every 2 losses. Since Jan 30th I have had a run of 7 losses - not counting the Break Even trades.
I must be stubborn as I have kept trading this system even though I have lost over $300 on a $1500 account plus the cost of the system.
I am thinking about using a modified martingale system and increase the trading lots by 67% after each loss. If I reduce the risk to 0.25% I should have sufficient capital to keep trading through 6 losses in a row and still end with a profit. Looking at the data from back testing, the worst runs seem to be about 7 trades in a row.
Interestingly enough, this approach seem to have the same draw down as just risking 2% per trade and losing 6 trades in a row. And over the last 4 months, the average number of losing trades in a row is a little more than 3 while the average number of winning trades is about row is about 1.15. So it would appear that the only way to salvage this system is with a different money management approach.
One final note: When I purchased this system, the sales pitch discounted back testing as the market was always changing. So I was encouraged to sign up for the Club to make sure that the software keeps current with the market. Based on the poor performance I have been experiencing, it would appear that the market has changed but the software has not.
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Too bad the Early close does not work the same for my broker (FXDD)... In order to make the early close work, I needed to set the time to 1 hour before the end of trading. When I try to use the close at the end of session the trade does not get executed and I am stuck with a weekend trade. I only got 9 pips on Friday so this falls into the BE column.
Using and Anti-Martengale approach might be a better bet. It seems that this system takes the exact opposite trade that my manual system would take. I have tested this for a month now and while I do not get 40 pip winners, I do get 25-30 before the market turns around.:clover:
I thought about increasing lot sizes after wins and decreasing after losses. But since the average win streak is 1 while the average loss streak is 3, I don't think this would work. In 2010, the average streaks were both 2 and with the 1:2 ratio of Risk/Reward, the system was profitable. But clearly, the market if behaving differently.
I also considered exiting trades sooner. Unfortunately I am at work when the trades are in progress and they don't allow remote control of any PC's through the firewalls.
Here is hoping that this week will be better.
wiseambitions
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Nice to eventually get a win Monday night.
Trailing stop very nearly kicked in. But I gather to do so the price has to go no lower than 39 before reaching about 45 ...... Every pip helps if it can somehow be squeezed out of the market.....
Trailing stop very nearly kicked in. But I gather to do so the price has to go no lower than 39 before reaching about 45 ...... Every pip helps if it can somehow be squeezed out of the market.....
wiseambitions
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Friday morning. Back in profit on February in spite of 6 full stop losses and only 2 full tp wins.
Mike Forex
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For those of you that were getting a little nervous earlier in the month, as you can see, one decent week last week pulled back all the losses for the month and put us back in the "green". On any run of losses, it pays to remember that we only need one win to balance out two losses.
I know some of you keep a close eye on the Friday Early Close, and you will have noticed that this last weekend would have ended in a full win had the trade been left open and may have even got us a few extra pips if the TS had kicked in. Just remember though, it can easily go the other way (like the previous week!) but the point of this function is to avoid a large loss or even an account wipe out should a drastic gap go against us.
We are still down 34 pips from our previous high on 27th January, but hopefully this high can be passed again in February's remaining trades.
Mike
The Forex Club
I know some of you keep a close eye on the Friday Early Close, and you will have noticed that this last weekend would have ended in a full win had the trade been left open and may have even got us a few extra pips if the TS had kicked in. Just remember though, it can easily go the other way (like the previous week!) but the point of this function is to avoid a large loss or even an account wipe out should a drastic gap go against us.
We are still down 34 pips from our previous high on 27th January, but hopefully this high can be passed again in February's remaining trades.
Mike
The Forex Club
wiseambitions
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Tuesday. These market conditions are awful. The Greek situation etc, not exactly a cause for euphoria in spite of agreements being reached. It was a close thing whether the trade actually went short or long, We just have to live in the hope that systems like this which rely on technical indicators rather than the fundamentals will still hold good. And a couple good days with TP and preferably with TS kicking in to add a bit more to the gain could soon take this one to new heights.
Mike Forex
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Really bad luck on Tuesday's trade. It appears the EA called the direction right but two retracing candles, one at 18:30 and the other at 19:15 (London) just touched the SL line before the price continued steadily south. We survived the first one by 0.4 of a pip but the second one just went over the SL by 0.7 of a pip!
Its times like these that you have to remember other trades that missed SL or hit TP by similar amounts. I suppose things balance out in the end?
Not sure what has happened to MyFxBook. The trades have run fine on our computers and as far as we can tell the information is still passing to MFB but it isn't updating.
This happened once before in November and it suddenly updated everything 3/4 days later. We can only wait and see if that is the case again. For your info, results are the same as the website.
Mike
The Forex Club
Its times like these that you have to remember other trades that missed SL or hit TP by similar amounts. I suppose things balance out in the end?
Not sure what has happened to MyFxBook. The trades have run fine on our computers and as far as we can tell the information is still passing to MFB but it isn't updating.
This happened once before in November and it suddenly updated everything 3/4 days later. We can only wait and see if that is the case again. For your info, results are the same as the website.
Mike
The Forex Club
wiseambitions
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Fortunately my own results for February now after a win Thursday morning are about 15 pips up on the month. This involved just 3 full wins, 8 full losses and a few other in-between trades.
It has been an awful month really, with markets doing their own thing, either going opposite to signals or ranging and whipsawing. The way I would back this up is to say that another system I watch which used to do quite well would actually be 400 pips down on the month to date!
It has been an awful month really, with markets doing their own thing, either going opposite to signals or ranging and whipsawing. The way I would back this up is to say that another system I watch which used to do quite well would actually be 400 pips down on the month to date!
Mike Forex
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Two in a row for the Trailing Stop! It's like waiting for buses!
Trade ended with a 49 pip profit at around 20:10 (London).
I'll settle for that!
Mike
The Forex Club
Trade ended with a 49 pip profit at around 20:10 (London).
I'll settle for that!
Mike
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wiseambitions
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Nice to see the system recover and reach new heights by the end of the week.
I notice their website would give evidence of a 7 fold multiplication in the start capital if following applicable settings from 1st June 2011. Most of this happened prior to October and general release, however I notice the myfxbook shows about 80pc capital growth at 4% risk, compounded since then. I haven't been able to find discrepancy in this claim, although the experience at some brokers isn't so good, but it would be great if performance kept at the same rate. Admittedly it isn't a lot of fun going a couple of weeks without a profit, but eventually they happen again and are very gratifying. There are no managed funds or ETFs that I know about in the investment world which keep up with this kind of output, and not many EAs which do better.
I notice their website would give evidence of a 7 fold multiplication in the start capital if following applicable settings from 1st June 2011. Most of this happened prior to October and general release, however I notice the myfxbook shows about 80pc capital growth at 4% risk, compounded since then. I haven't been able to find discrepancy in this claim, although the experience at some brokers isn't so good, but it would be great if performance kept at the same rate. Admittedly it isn't a lot of fun going a couple of weeks without a profit, but eventually they happen again and are very gratifying. There are no managed funds or ETFs that I know about in the investment world which keep up with this kind of output, and not many EAs which do better.
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Mike Forex
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One should probably be pleased with any gain in this tough business, but I have to admit to being devastatingly disappointed with Wednesday's result which finished at +9 pips around two in the morning.
It is the second time in 4 days that we have been a whisker away from full target of 40 pips and fell back to hit the BE reset (see screen shot in post above). Those two results could just have easily been 2 x 39 pips instead of 2 x 9 pips which would have made 157 pips for the month instead of the 97 we ended with. It would have also meant that we would have reached the target of 100% gain on the MyFxBook account thus doubling our money since October.
However, a gain is a gain and as mentioned before, pips gained on EDT are worth much more than any other system we know of. That 97 pips for February represents over 10% gain on an account running at just 2% risk and a healthy 19.91% growth on our live account which runs at 4%.
Not too shoddy eh?
Mike
The Forex Club
It is the second time in 4 days that we have been a whisker away from full target of 40 pips and fell back to hit the BE reset (see screen shot in post above). Those two results could just have easily been 2 x 39 pips instead of 2 x 9 pips which would have made 157 pips for the month instead of the 97 we ended with. It would have also meant that we would have reached the target of 100% gain on the MyFxBook account thus doubling our money since October.
However, a gain is a gain and as mentioned before, pips gained on EDT are worth much more than any other system we know of. That 97 pips for February represents over 10% gain on an account running at just 2% risk and a healthy 19.91% growth on our live account which runs at 4%.
Not too shoddy eh?
Mike
The Forex Club
wiseambitions
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We have had a reasonably good month in spite of those irritations.
Presumably you keep trialling whether 39 or 40 pips make for too high a target in present market conditions? Or if 9 at +20 is the optimum way to trap a few pips in the SL reset when there's not enough inertia in the market movements?
wiseambitions
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Doesn't look to me like this site is used any more, no contributions from any other users for a couple weeks or more
Nevertheless I've been totting up the progress noticing we are exactly at the end of week 10 of 2012.
The production of pips has been steady, and depending on the broker, which has a bearing on trades taken, trailing stops, delays & slippage, there have been between 150 and 200 pips taken off the table in that timescale.
It doesn't sound a lot if it's maybe 20 a week or less, however that's still plenty enough to keep the show rolling and to gather a bit of capital gain, perhaps even 40 to 50 per cent if risking 4%. Preferably we'd get more than 20 pips a week, as it was apparently doing this in the middle of 2011, markets are not being very kind at the moment and a lot of strategies are failing to work any good at all.
Nevertheless I've been totting up the progress noticing we are exactly at the end of week 10 of 2012.
The production of pips has been steady, and depending on the broker, which has a bearing on trades taken, trailing stops, delays & slippage, there have been between 150 and 200 pips taken off the table in that timescale.
It doesn't sound a lot if it's maybe 20 a week or less, however that's still plenty enough to keep the show rolling and to gather a bit of capital gain, perhaps even 40 to 50 per cent if risking 4%. Preferably we'd get more than 20 pips a week, as it was apparently doing this in the middle of 2011, markets are not being very kind at the moment and a lot of strategies are failing to work any good at all.
