Euro Daily Trader

[wiseambitions]

Monday 28th. Live trading led to the slaughter, suffered about 11:45pm, yet a strategy test run the next morning on Alpari gave it a 'No Trade'. However IBFX demo account shows +10 (taken at 01:15am) There are lots of things at the moment I fail to understand.


However on another tack, it was a public observance in USA and would have usually been our bank holiday if it were not for the Jubilee. I have previously questioned the outcome for trading when a market is on shutdown and this was another example of doom for proceeding to do so

Demo results for month so far (v5) GKFX -19, Alpari +1, IBFX -23 pips. No particular conclusions.

 

[wiseambitions]

I think from this chart, which shows cum. production the last 50 days, the system may be coming back into a winning streak, as the improvements of the latest version take full effect

demo results with different revisions since 1 May
v3.0 +65 pips
v4.0 +11
v5.0 +92

 

[wiseambitions]

There doesnt seem to be any discussion about this now....nor PMs .....perhaps everyone's stopped using it who used to visit here?

No trade signals 4 days in a row. But currently 100 pips up on the month with 2 days left.

I managed to run a careful back test and have noticed that current version v5.0 could have probably turned £10000 into £105000 since 1.6.2011 at 4% risk and would now be back to previous high after 3m of bad experience. Which is better than £10000 into £60000 achieved by the producers using the version applicable on the day...

Whereas theyve also said the EDT effect wouldnt have worked prior to 2010 I think v5 might have still been mildly productive, which is encouraging. I think the improvement comes from the combination of new exit settings (less aggressive TPs) and the filters which seem to stop about 1 trade in 3 and which probably save a loss most times which earlier versions would have incurred.

 

[wiseambitions]

version 6.0 now been supplied to us. In backtests seems to trade much more frequently than v5.0 and sometimes goes the other way, which suggests the trend signal is picked up from a different indicator to before.

A basic back test since 1st April (3 and half months) using 4% risk, compounded, doubled the starting balance by 13th July. E&OE.
Pip count on its own is no longer a valid KPI without some adjustment because it varies the SL on some days and therefore the lot size for a given % risk exposure can double and halve.

 

[wiseambitions]

The system has had a better week with in theory 3 consecutive wins enjoying TS

Unfortunately I have not partaken in this benefit as my system has closed trades almost a minute after they open, inevitably with loss rather than even the occasional pip of a gain. And this is inspite of the trade being set up and subsequently modified with SL accepted.

Is there anyone else reading the thread nowadays that has any experience of EAs doing this to them?

Or is it just EDT?

When wins like this are rather scarce it is very disappointing to have this experience, I wouldnt mind so much if it was the trades which ultimately went bad that it shut out prematurely!

 

[ggjr61]

The system has had a better week with in theory 3 consecutive wins enjoying TS

Unfortunately I have not partaken in this benefit as my system has closed trades almost a minute after they open, inevitably with loss rather than even the occasional pip of a gain. And this is inspite of the trade being set up and subsequently modified with SL accepted.

Is there anyone else reading the thread nowadays that has any experience of EAs doing this to them?

Or is it just EDT?

When wins like this are rather scarce it is very disappointing to have this experience, I wouldnt mind so much if it was the trades which ultimately went bad that it shut out prematurely!

I had stopped trading this for several months but when 6.0 came out I decided to try it again. I am trading at 2% and yes - this week was a good week. My account with FXDD is up almost 5% because of the consecutive wins. It's a nice feeling after the beating and rollor coaster that this and FMT took me on. It would be really nice if this continued!

 

[wiseambitions]

I had stopped trading this for several months but when 6.0 came out I decided to try it again. I am trading at 2% and yes - this week was a good week. My account with FXDD is up almost 5% because of the consecutive wins. It's a nice feeling after the beating and rollor coaster that this and FMT took me on. It would be really nice if this continued!

Yes it's a shame that FMT took everyone for a beating because a couple years ago when it came to the market it had enjoyed a good run and looked convincing. And whatever he's done to modify the settings it still doesnt seem to work at that time of day (A few people reset the start time and use it at the NY opening to better effect).

My only current problem with this one is that I'm finding these trades closing as soon as they open, it must be some technical hitch, the brokers wont accept it's their end. Unfortunately the group of people that I used to correspond with about EDT success and failure gave up after a few bad weeks, so not much discussion happens nowadays

 

[wiseambitions]

Is anyone else reading this familiar with trades closing early?

Sods law means it always happens on the winning trades, forex never was fair!

 

[wiseambitions]

In theory, results since 16th July to compare versions, at 4% risk per trade

v5.0 -8.4%
v6.0 -4.5%

Disappointing that the numbers are still negative, yet there's probably a faint bias in favour of the upgraded version, which trades more frequently but sometimes trades opposite the earlier ones, and sometimes doubles the stop loss (and halves its profit potential).

An even greater disappointment is to see that the same date range in 2011 would have given gains of 30% and 49% respectively, but that's only on backdated data. And seeing as past performance is no guarantee of future performance, who knows whether we are just in a temporary dip or whether the profits will come back?

There seems to be no interraction on this board or on donna any more, perhaps it means nobody has anything interesting to discuss?

Give them their due, this system is rigorously tested, continually being modified, the manual is well written, they are helpful with individual problems, and no unreasonable claims are made, and yet the track record (2 and a half years' published data) is up with the best.

 

[wiseambitions]

oh dear, I think it's more like 12 per cent down since the new version, and both v5 and v6 would have in theory produced similar in spite of various daily differences.

August can be a silly month due to thin volumes, but this experience is definitely uncomfortable and I wonder whether there's a permanent shift to the behaviour of the market or whether this is just something shortlived

 

[wiseambitions]

Feels now like a wheel has fallen off this system, as well as several others. It hasn't had a month so bad as this, the feeling of a TP is ancient history now.

Lots of questions arise, eg is 6pm London time unique any more? Are the indicators right? Are the exits right? Was it just that August was a crazy month, what with many traders being away?

 

[wiseambitions]

Thursday: I am disappointed for Mike and G that August had such a poor month, and that v6 did not bring the improvements hoped for. I also noticed that 5pm (UK) starts would recently have given better outcomes than at 6pm. Nothing wants to guarantee us any rewards in this cruel game!

Results on backtests

Since 01/01/2011 which is 20 months and a few days, FXDD data E&OE, 4% risk per trade, excluding overnight interest etc, capital should have grown as follows:

1) v 3 +560% max DD 65%

2) v5 +1590% max DD 32%

3) v6 +1417% max DD 34%

If only it would turn around and do that again!


We'd all be happy if we could have turned £1000 into £15900 in less than 2 years.


I understand M&G are only running on demo ATM.

 

[wiseambitions]

Tuesday night
Unfortunately the stop losses proved just a bit tight, both v5 and v6 both got stopped out in experiences where the price only went half a pip or so worse before going back round towards profit. or at least break even.

It wont be long before someone writes ''not me' I got full TP, and it was not my good luck.