Euro Daily Trader

[wiseambitions]

Sadly the attached chart which shows the rolling daily average pips per day for the last 10 weeks, 50 days, until 8th December, tells the story of a system which is faltering fast. I'm disappointed in the last couple of weeks, which contained 1 win and 7 losses since 28th November.

Results until mid September are drawn from The Forex Club - WELCOME! and after then from my own trading.

 

[TheForexClub.eu]

I too am disappointed at the recent results and we are working hard to try and change this.

With that in mind, you should all have an email sent late Sunday night with a link to EDT v3.5.

If you did not receive yours (please look in your spam folder first) then please email me at [email protected] and I will send you a copy direct.

We shall be trading with the new EA from Monday 12th December.

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[wiseambitions]

I too am disappointed at the recent results and we are working hard to try and change this.

With that in mind, you should all have an email sent late Sunday night with a link to EDT v3.5.

If you did not receive yours (please look in your spam folder first) then please email me at [email protected] and I will send you a copy direct.

We shall be trading with the new EA from Monday 12th December.

Mike
The Forex Club

Yes,we're looking forward to any tweak which brings improvements


The trouble is the euro looks like it's in death throes these days and it makes nonsense of the technicial indicators which might have used to work

 

[wiseambitions]

Yes,we're looking forward to any tweak which brings improvements


The trouble is the euro looks like it's in death throes these days and it makes nonsense of the technicial indicators which might have used to work

And a win, after 6 hours, Monday night restored most of us to the situation as of last Wednesday morning, compensating 2 losses.

It was close though! I reckon if TP had been a pip or two more it wouldn't have worked like that.

The win also does good to the longer term running averages, e.g. 100 day MA, but we need one or two more quickly to give convincing signs of progress.

Best luck for the rest of the week, EDT usually repays its debts........

 

[TheForexClub.eu]

EDT usually repays its debts........

Thanks for that Wise.

No pressure then? :whistling

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[wiseambitions]

Thanks for that Wise.

No pressure then? :whistling

Mike
The Forex Club

Hi Mike

Well it owes me one or two wins.
I'm trying to work on what sort of broker suits this system best as there is diversity with the outcomes between users.
Not only one with low spread but quick execution and no slippage.
Initial findings say market makers rather than ECN/STP give better results

Concerned a bit that the 40tp if I were running the new EA might have missed me three TPs lately, including two days when 39 missed the goal and 38 would have been ok.

Update 9pm Tuesday

v3.0 took a short trade
Hit SL by a slim margin else would have got TP with ECN account

Small MM broker account achieved TP. Note I said small, most of my money was on the other sort!

I heard that people with v3.5 had a mixture of no trade and BE+9

The reason v3.0 didn't knock out at BE-1 was that the price didn't retrace that far.

So a funny day really, all scenarios of No trade, BE + 9 and TP were possible giving a range of nearly 60 pips.

Can somebody please convince me whether these experiences cancel each other out to give a similar long term gain?????

 

[humbyhumb]

Hey Wise, I had a similar experience. I guess the signal difference between NT and Short would be a broker related issue. For me, the signal came up as 'No Trade' but placed a trade anyway (!!??) then TP'd at BE+9. Mike, can you provide some update on the new workings and behaviours of 3.5? I know this release was brought forward as the 3.0 was clearly heading towards crash and burn - but are there some further updates to come to knock the rough edges off this release? Other than that, am encouraged that 3.5 is at last not going long when the market is clearly going short, so signal reading looks an improvement..! Time will tell for all of us that continue to keep the faith....

 

[TheForexClub.eu]

DIFFERENT RESULTS

This is the hot topic of conversation this morning as conflicting signals gave different results. Monday also gave different results as most hit full TP of 40 pips but a few hit the new +9 sl line on the retrace.

The fact is, this issue has very little to do with this EA (or any other EA for that matter) and everything to do with broker differences. I have been reading a lot of comments about MDP recently which really demonstrates this point. Of all their users, and there seems to be a lot, I have not yet found two traders who got the same result on any given day!

I would like to share this article with you (see below), which discusses this subject and concludes with the line:

"...it becomes obvious that having the same results amongst all the different brokers will be quite impossible..."

I think that just about sums it up.

Understanding Broker Dependency: What Makes Results Different From One Broker to Another | Mechanical Forex

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[wiseambitions]

Ok, having been told "having the same results amongst all the different brokers will be quite impossible" I still think it would be useful to better understand what it is causes these differences and to what extent the user can control this other than change brokers

There are 2 aspects
1) Signals. The situations where the indicators are on a knife edge eg some people go long others go short, I contend is still due to the EA and the indicators it uses. For example if a system requires 2 or a majority of indicators to be a certain value then the biggest difference is more likely to be some will have a signal and others will get no trade, (potential difference less than 20 pips) not for one man to go short when another goes long (potential difference nearly 60 pips). v3.0 evidently relied on one main indicator and the possibility of the reading being more or less than the dividing line eg 0.00 or 100.0 gave rise to what we've seen where some people going long others going short. And it is due to spikes with individual brokers and changes in spreads that these indicators come up with minutely different readings.


2) The trade. If there is a latency between the client and the broker there can be a difference in the starting price. And that is going to affect SL and TP and BE settings which are applied to the actual start price. The outcome also depends on spikes and spreads and delays in the execution of the close. Which brings me back to an observation that maybe Market Makers are better suited to this system as they are less likely to be source of slippage, both on opening and closing, and probably also work with fixed spreads.

I stand to be corrected on any of these thoughts, and come back to the point that once you have the right hardware and preferably a good VPS then the choice of broker is probably the only variable under the control of the user.

 

[wiseambitions]

Um?

 

[Mike Forex]

Wise,

Really appreciate you keeping these records.

The downturn on the graph above was expected as your first trade in the "50" trades that your graph is now looking at, has just reached the high point at the end of the first week in October.

The downturn on the graph is really showing the better than average results at the end of September and into the first week of October, compared with the worse than average in the past 10 days.

You will now find that the graph takes a sharp upturn, almost regardless of the results of the next few trades, as we go through that bad run of losses that happened in Octobers 2nd and 3rd weeks.

Just watching tonight's trade before turning in. BE has just gone to +9 pips so we will have a winner!

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[wiseambitions]

Those comments may have been true and a graph drawn after Thursday's trade might have leveled out, but today's loser drove it down some more. Whatever indicators you look at the euro just does its own thing at the moment and it's a gamble to dare and trade with it

 

[wiseambitions]

And it carries on getting worse

Not worth carrying on now

 

[Mike Forex]

And it carries on getting worse

Not worth carrying on now

Lots of people asked me if we intended to trade through Christmas and I said that we would be trading as normal.

I would be interested to see what your graph looks like today wise.

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[wiseambitions]

Hi the 50d MA is looking up again.......

I have to say my luck hasn't been as good as others' with this system lately, seeing there are reports of profits, one reason I think is that it probably suits better with MM brokers because of instant execution.

It surprised me how this week was a bit more steady than others. I wonder if there has been less volatility due to no major news announcements, as this is the thing that knocks this method out of a trade due to tight stop losses. Somewhere I read that the tests for Nov and Dec 2010 were about as good as any, but the pattern wasn't carried through generally this time. We'll have to see whether it does better in January

I've reduced the risk for tonight and of course invoked the Friday forced closure.

 

[Mike Forex]

So..........

An end to the year with another gain in December, and although pips gained increased again, still not back to the average of around 140 to 150 per month we are looking for. But as they say, a win is a win is a win!

Looking back over the live results since June 2011, we have only had one losing month (a loss of 4 pips in August) and it is difficult to understand why we seem to have come in for so much stick.

However, that seems to be the nature of the game and all we can do is plod on.

Not a bad start to January so far, we are already up 6.2% (at 4% risk).

May I wish everyone a profitable New Year!

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[Mike Forex]

Slow....Slower....Slowest!!!

Hardly moved since an hour before the trade so looks like our Friday Early Close may come into play tonight.

Nice to be sitting on results that mean that whatever happens tonight, the week will be a winning one.

EDT v4.0 will be out soon which will build on the recent success of v3.5 and with a rather interesting addition to the EA. :idea:

Watch this space.

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[Mike Forex]

Another 40 pips win yesterday now puts us 173 pips up over the Christmas / New Year period (since 19th Dec).

That gives us a 35% gain (at 4%) which is pretty impressive for any three week period and doubly so in a period where most traders are of the opinion that it is not worth trading at all.

It also means a good start to January, and the New Year, with 79 pips (16% gain) already for the month.

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[fpinero]

Testing the system here too (since January, 1). Let's see how it developes, the start is promissing

 

[wiseambitions]

Some systems give very comparable results between users, but it's not a character of this one.

I've had a couple occasions where my trades have been opposite to others, and plenty trades where I've had SL and others have not, or might have achieved or not achieved TP when others have had a different outcome.

Example Thursday night, I had No Trade, but I know others who traded and had a loss.

You'd like to think that these differences would cancel themselves out in the long term, however there is no guarantee of this

I have spent time on the system, thinking about the R/R/R and the fact that a regular pattern of one win, a break even and a stop loss seem to be pretty much the measure of things. And seeing a win is worth 2 stop losses, to test variable lot sizes.

Basically I think a form of Martingale is suited to the system, and I'd say categorically it is the best way and the only way I am now using it. I've explained to the programmers how I have worked out a system which even if there were no cumulative gains in 3 months could still give 40pc return on capital. Incredible but true. I may update the forum of my real results in a few more weeks. Currently it should be making me less anxious about the day to day differences that go on, because I should continue in a measure of confidence that the next profit will be even better even if there has just been a losing trade.