Euro Daily Trader

[ggjr61]

Attached is the data in an Excel workbook with my simple analysis. It would appear very different from my original analysis. When looking at 2010 Fridays are the best day to trade.. And the variation from month to month and quarter to quarter seem to say that there is no correlation to the day of the week.

I don't know how much longer I can hold on to this. After more BE's and losses I am beginning to think that the market has changed and the system no longer works. It would appear that August was a bad month, October was a bad month, and we are more than half way through Nov and another bad month.

Is anyone going to let this trade on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday this week given the US holidays?

Hurray! Another Wednesday win. Too bad I was anxious and left my risk at 1%. Still it's nice to see the strategy pick up a few pips!

 

[wiseambitions]

Hurray! Another Wednesday win. Too bad I was anxious and left my risk at 1%. Still it's nice to see the strategy pick up a few pips!

My biggest account missed TP by 0.2 pips 0.00002 so went to BE (-1)

Understandably I'm not a happy bunny. I thought I deserved better for all the positive aspects I've tried to find with the system! Wins have been a bit scarce lately. I think a fair amount of luck was involved in tonight's trade as there wasn't a lot of spare room in the price action eg if there was delay in execution or the spread widened at the wrong moment. Hopefully someone in the inner sanctums of the forex fair trade centre will make it back up to me soon LOL

 

[Mike Forex]

My biggest account missed TP by 0.2 pips 0.00002 so went to BE (-1)

Understandably I'm not a happy bunny. I thought I deserved better for all the positive aspects I've tried to find with the system! Wins have been a bit scarce lately. I think a fair amount of luck was involved in tonight's trade as there wasn't a lot of spare room in the price action eg if there was delay in execution or the spread widened at the wrong moment. Hopefully someone in the inner sanctums of the forex fair trade centre will make it back up to me soon LOL

That really sucks Wise. Actually there was not a lot of room but our live account hit the TP pretty decisively on SLM. I think it was down to the entry price rather than spread. Screenshot attached.

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[wiseambitions]

That really sucks Wise. Actually there was not a lot of room but our live account hit the TP pretty decisively on SLM. I think it was down to the entry price rather than spread. Screenshot attached.

Mike
The Forex Club

Yes Mike, I was actually watching the trade happen on my laptop at the time and thought tempted to close out manually when I could see lovely profit there, however I decided I would be breaking my own rules to do so. It was so close!

I expect EDT gave TP to perhaps half of its users, however whilst 43.7 pips existed in theory on Alpari UK (prior to bid offer spread, assuming no slippage delays) 39 pips were barely there in reality, and where there was a wider spread or delay in execution at the start the others missed it by a slim difference

One guy on donna forex has had such bad luck too, it seems such is life


I think EDT gives more divergence in the personal experience compared with FMT because not only of this (which you can still get with FMT) but also due to our suspicion that the signals are x with conditions y, instead of z as well, and when things are on a knife edge some people get signalled into a trade of the opposite direction rather than NT, so the final outcome can be 58 pips apart

One would hope these differences would be self cancelling in the long run, however due to the way markets move I don't think you could label one broker as better than another, you could of course have 2 accounts on the same broker and same VPS which get executed at different prices.

Using a combination of your figures June to mid September and mine thereafter it makes the rolling 50 day MA 4.1 per day, against a longer term trend IRO 5.3

Better luck is needed today and tomorrow

 

[StealthTrading]

Hi Mike,

Rather than having your settings break even at -1 why not change it to +1 when you hit 20 pips.

It would make more sense to take +1 than lose it for the sake of a couple of pips. I trade a manual system that does this. Once you hit first target you move to BE +1. Let the trade run or take a small profit.

An obvious way to increase winners or make that setting configurable to the user.

I tried running a back tester the other day and got a "zero divide" error on a demo account (?)

Anyway good luck with it.

 

[wiseambitions]

Friday. Last night's result was a long time coming and worth the wait. Americans tucking into turkey or whatever else of course....

50d MA 4.88
100d MA 4.14

When the 50day MA is higher than 100 it suggests there was a sticky patch more than 10 weeks ago (i.e. August) and recent improvement. Hope it will be sustained.

 

[Mike Forex]

Hi Mike,

Rather than having your settings break even at -1 why not change it to +1 when you hit 20 pips.

It would make more sense to take +1 than lose it for the sake of a couple of pips. I trade a manual system that does this. Once you hit first target you move to BE +1. Let the trade run or take a small profit.

An obvious way to increase winners or make that setting configurable to the user.

I tried running a back tester the other day and got a "zero divide" error on a demo account (?)

Anyway good luck with it.

Hi Stealth,

Thanks for the advice, but we didn't just pluck the value of -1 from mid-air! There is a very good reason why the BE is set to -1 rather than +1. In fact, why stop at +1? Why not +2 or +5 or +10? Wouldn't that be even better?

The fact is that BE set at -1 was the optimum setting on all our tests (and there were many!) so will give the maximum profit over an extended period. It is the same reason why the SL is set at 19 (why not a nice round figure like 20?) and the TP is set at 39 instead of a round 40.

On a more general note, yesterday's trade (or rather this morning's trade as it went overnight and hit TP at 06:15) means that November must now be a profitable month. Even if the last 4 trades left in the month were all losers (heaven forbid!) then the month would still end positive.

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[jvdw]

Hi All. Thanks for all the posts - I've been following this for a while and have recently started using the EA. I think the biggest "problem" with the EA is the 2:1 profit/loss ratio. Which of course isn't a problem at all. But our emotions get the better of us and tells us that 2 consecutive losses followed by a BE is really bad. Admittedly it's not good, but it only takes one win to equal the above in terms of pips. If you look at the results (The Forex Club - EURO DAILY TRADER) from 10 Nov up to and including 23 Nov for example - in 10 days there were only 2 wins but the net result is only 1 pip down. Add the win from 24 Nov and you're in profit by 38 pips with only 3 wins in 11 days. August - only 4 wins in total but only 4 pips down for the month. I'll take that any day as far as a bad month goes.

I guess the trick is to not look at daily results (emotionally), but weekly, preferably monthly, to give the system a chance to make full use of the 2:1 ratio. And any profitable month is a good month.

 

[Mike Forex]

Hi All. Thanks for all the posts - I've been following this for a while and have recently started using the EA. I think the biggest "problem" with the EA is the 2:1 profit/loss ratio. Which of course isn't a problem at all. But our emotions get the better of us and tells us that 2 consecutive losses followed by a BE is really bad. Admittedly it's not good, but it only takes one win to equal the above in terms of pips. If you look at the results (The Forex Club - EURO DAILY TRADER) from 10 Nov up to and including 23 Nov for example - in 10 days there were only 2 wins but the net result is only 1 pip down. Add the win from 24 Nov and you're in profit by 38 pips with only 3 wins in 11 days. August - only 4 wins in total but only 4 pips down for the month. I'll take that any day as far as a bad month goes.

I guess the trick is to not look at daily results (emotionally), but weekly, preferably monthly, to give the system a chance to make full use of the 2:1 ratio. And any profitable month is a good month.

I have to say congratulations on this post JVDW.

Of all the posts I've read on our Euro Daily Trader system, I have got to say that you really hit the nail on the head here. It is a point I have tried to get across quite a few times but I have been absolutely slated by customers, as it seems that coming from me it sounds like a poor excuse.


Mike
The Forex Club

 

[Mike Forex]

The Forex Club is now offering Euro Daily Trader in a free trial version.

This allows you to load and run the system on your Broker MT4 demo platform to familiarise yourself with the system and try it out. There are no limitations on the trial period; you can try it for as long as you wish.

The EA, along with all the necessary software and user's manual, can be downloaded from the website. Go to The Forex Club - WELCOME! and follow the "Free Demo" link.

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[wiseambitions]

I wish to say it was a useful development that the EA now offers forced closure on Fridays. I only got 4 or 5 pips on the short trade after perhaps the low point being towards 20, however that was far better than waiting until Sunday night and getting stopped out possibly with as many as 70 pips of loss (more than 3 times SL) as the market opened significantly higher after 48 hours.

The second thing to say, and I think Mike and his friend need to make more of this in their defence when people grumble about the guarantee is that the EDT EA is self standing. What I am trying to say is the key code they give you which enables the thing to work without being cloned all over the place does not need to log into any central server. One popular EA is failing today to authenticate because the owners' server is down and people are starting to wonder whether all is well. (Discussion on another blog) EDT is immune from this difficulty.

 

[Mike Forex]

....The second thing to say, and I think Mike and his friend need to make more of this in their defence when people grumble.....

This is an interesting subject, and one to which I have given much thought. I touched on this in an earlier post in saying that whatever I post as a vendor, seems to be taken as an excuse, or in other cases, posts are often read with "suspicious eyes" as I "obviously have something to gain". I found therefore, that in many instances it is better to bite your lip and remain silent.

But of course this is the problem with the Internet as we all know. Anyone can say anything they like with impunity, and the damage they do, even if done out of ignorance rather than malice can be considerable. Here are a couple of examples:

One customer placed his order at 6am in the morning. Having failed to read the part where EDT was not a download and would be sent by email, just one hour later, he wrote a post on a forum saying that he had purchased and received nothing!!! !!! *&%***!! .....and therefore the whole thing was obviously a scam and he was cancelling his payment!! !!. By the time I opened the order at 9am, he had made a claim for fraud to PayPal and also posted this information on the forum. We eventually sorted it out and the customer later apologised, but the posts remain there to this day.

Another customer purchased and two days later actually started a thread for EDT on a well know Forex forum. His first post (which he has never mentioned to us and which we didn't see till a month later) said that on his second trade, he had recorded a loss when our website results showed a winning trade. This, he said in the post, was very suspicious and he would be "keeping an close eye" on the venders from now on. In fact we had received an email from this customer the same day, complaining of this. After some investigations, we discovered that he had set the EA trading time incorrectly and was trading one hour early. He thanked us very much for the excellent and quick customer service but said nothing more. As I said, we didn't see the post till one month later and again, it is still there.

There are many more instances I could give similar to these. But it is a sad fact that many are very quick to make negative comments and yet unwilling to make a correction when they find the error is theirs.

Much more dangerous however, is the individual with an ulterior motive. Some of the most persistent and vindictive posts have been written by someone who is determined to get his EA for free and will stop at nothing to get his way.

I too am a trader, and read with interest several forums in an effort to see what is available in the market. I have a great respect for forums like this one and others and in the past I have made decisions to purchase (or not) based on other traders comments. It is a shame that you have no way of knowing that many times you are actually reading an opinion written by someone with a personal axe to grind.

Ah well. C'est la Internet!

Mike
The Forex Club

 

[ggjr61]

I wish to say it was a useful development that the EA now offers forced closure on Fridays. I only got 4 or 5 pips on the short trade after perhaps the low point being towards 20, however that was far better than waiting until Sunday night and getting stopped out possibly with as many as 70 pips of loss (more than 3 times SL) as the market opened significantly higher after 48 hours.

The second thing to say, and I think Mike and his friend need to make more of this in their defence when people grumble about the guarantee is that the EDT EA is self standing. What I am trying to say is the key code they give you which enables the thing to work without being cloned all over the place does not need to log into any central server. One popular EA is failing today to authenticate because the owners' server is down and people are starting to wonder whether all is well. (Discussion on another blog) EDT is immune from this difficulty.

I whole heartly agree with both comments. I took Mike's advice and closed Friday's trade early with a small win instead of a significant loss.

Regarding copy protection: The key is good as long as you can change it when you change brokers. It seems like I have been through too many brokers mostly due to the liberals in the US congress who insist on putting legislation in place to protect me by taking my money. It's nice to see that the rules they put in place don't apply to indiviuals with a networth of $10Mor more.... I think this is an example of the Golden Rule (He who has the gold makes the rules).

Lastly, today's trade was another one of those barely stopped out. I am looking forward to versions 3.1 and 4.0 that Mike has announced.

Until next time, good trading!

 

[BlackE30]

This is a tempting EA to get!! Oh yea, I've been a member for 5 years and this is my first post Hello everyone!

 

[wiseambitions]

Wednesday: Unless the euro comes off the boil slightly in the next 30 minutes I'm not expecting EDT to trade today.

We rather need a couple more quick wins, as the Moving Averages are coming down as a consequence of Monday and Tuesday bringing losses.

50 day MA 3.04
100 day MA 3.44

Despite this, and so long as June to middle September claims by Mike and G are reliable, the average pips for the last half year are around 120 per month. So I'm about 40 behind the 'official' tally.






If that experience could be repeated i.e. around 30 pips a week net profit I would be happy


18:00. It opened a long trade
18:14. It lost


Sadly I only achieved 6 pips for November, having missed the 39tp on one trade by less than a pip and slumping back to BE. Sob sob.

 

[wiseambitions]

Alleluia

Thursday night's trade, Long on EU, closed 7 hrs later in profit

50day MA 1.88 pips daily
100 day 3.83

It's positive, and it's enough to keep us rolling.

In 100 days, at 4%, £1000 or $1000 could be turned 1972

 

[wiseambitions]

Monday

After 2 losses which erased Thursday's win, the trouble is the long term MAs are falling (e.g.100 day MA = 2.67) - Half of the observations which mean since publication of the system are my own figures not the sellers'

Occasional losses aren't of much significance, but when the 100 day MA had previously been more like 5 it desperately needs 2 or 3 wins this week now to try and nudge things back towards normal.

 

[wiseambitions]

Tuesday
Unfortunately after going 20 pips to the good and getting the BE reset the price went down after 3 hours and hit BE

The problem this gives us is a lack of enough wins in the last couple weeks to prop up the moving averages. The attachment shows the present 50 day rolling average which is pointing the wrong way.

We aren't getting enough discussion on here, so I may desist. The trouble is Donna Forex is the other main blog but the attitude on there is hostile and I would not wish to get into their arguments

Wednesday morning: Some people I talk to got TP on this trade. Either they didn't get the BE reset when the price went up about 20 pips, or else they didn't quite get stopped out later when the price went back to -1, and they hit their profit target 12 and a quarter hours later. It's a bit of a lottery because I've heard of different results with the same broker, and reminds me of a similar experience a couple weeks ago. One would hope such experiences would even out in the long run, although that would be down to random forces rather than the skills of the user or the efficiency of the technology

 

[humbyhumb]

Hi Wise, don't despair, agree that Donna Forex is more rant ridden than here, where we're all being civilised despite the repeated loss/BE results. I'm gritting my teeth and buying into Mike's "play the long game and chill out" pitch, but my one beef remains on the criteria the EA uses to determine going long or short. My heart sank when I saw the EA go long last night but decided to play it out rather than immediately close the trade which would have been a more panicked response. Net result? I'm down $400 - again. Still gritting my teeth, but I'm going to be in serious need of dental work if this keeps on this way....

 

[wiseambitions]

Thanks for your company Hummy! I agree with what you said, there seems to be a division between people getting one signal and another as well as too many times when some get the full TP and others go back to -1 etc etc. I'd like to hope that these events even out over the long term but I need some persuasion of that.

Let's hope for a couple wins before the weekend because they would restore a bit of faith in the system which as per my recent graph looks like it's going down hill.

Over at Donna you sit and look at the screen and feel the anger and frustration. When these guys launched the method they can't have envisaged this, however if the promised modification to the EA carries some improvements then people will feel a bit happier.