Dow 2008

[firewalker99]

Do any of you guys on this thread follow a trader named grey1 over at technical trader?

Basically i have followed him for some time and attended his recent webinar, he strongly believes the dow is heading south this year no matter how many times they cut rates, because he says it takes around 1 year for the cuts to actually affect the market and we only see spikes when the cuts or news comes out. He has done alot of fundamental analysis and beleives that there are alot of bankrupt stocks out there and he lists the stocks in his forum.

From what he says it seems there is alot of money to be made this year shorting the dow and these weak stocks, are you guys of the same opinion?


jason

You don't need to know a lot about the fundamentals to tell that the DOW is going south... though probably not today or tomorrow

 

[dans_ya_man]

Do any of you guys on this thread follow a trader named grey1 over at technical trader?

Basically i have followed him for some time and attended his recent webinar, he strongly believes the dow is heading south this year no matter how many times they cut rates, because he says it takes around 1 year for the cuts to actually affect the market and we only see spikes when the cuts or news comes out. He has done alot of fundamental analysis and beleives that there are alot of bankrupt stocks out there and he lists the stocks in his forum.

From what he says it seems there is alot of money to be made this year shorting the dow and these weak stocks, are you guys of the same opinion?


jason

I think most people on here have the opinion that the DOW is heading South at some point in the near future, looks like we may have to hit the 12800/13000 to bring in the sellers

 

[Pat494]

Fins has a by phone only policy at the moment !!

Hope you are on the right side guys, cos thats when they expect action

 

[free4440273]

IBM doing exceedingly well today: hasn't traded above 110 for quite a while actually... :thinkingsmilie: (can't find a thinking smilie).

 

[catracho]

Looks like many assets breaking out to upside:
Equity mkts FTSE ..DOW DAX ..bear mkt rallies (sharp) or start of a new move higher..?

Euro challenging highs... 1.4960...if this level holds could be fast move higher..

Gold/Silver & others..also look poised to break higher...Gold needs to clear 950 cash decisively and we may be headed to 1k

sorry not really the thread but couldn't start one just for that!

 

[Hook Shot]

Euro will end up being one the dream trades of 2008 (cos The Lads say the dollar is due a rally) ... before this breakout....
- well done to those who are long I'll wait for pbk rather than chase it.........
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Funny how this happens the spx hit one of my obscure downtrend lines at close - you know the ones you put on your screen with felt tip (for something completely difft) and forget to wipe off .. if your like me anyway ...It happened to identify a trend line weird .... Europe especially ftse says we're due a rest so if dow is going to "800" today or tomorrow then uk probably best play (4me) since cos it's already pulled back.......
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I want a failed rally intraday now in Dow to set me up just in case

 

[Hook Shot]

Euro will end up being one the dream trades of 2008 (cos The Lads say the dollar is due a rally) ... before this breakout....
- well done to those who are long I'll wait for pbk rather than chase it.........
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Funny how this happens the spx hit one of my obscure downtrend lines at close - you know the ones you put on your screen with felt tip (for something completely difft) and forget to wipe off .. if your like me anyway ...It happened to identify a trend line weird .... Europe especially ftse says we're due a rest so if dow is going to "800" today or tomorrow then uk probably best play (4me) since cos it's already pulled back.......
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I want a failed rally intraday now in Dow to set me up just in case

Look's like we got the failed rally........ if wrong I've got a stop

 

[bottomleyp]

Short DOW

Hi HS

I'm just gone short dow at 12687 and 12741, fluid stop at 12760, where have
you got your stop.

 

[catracho]

no shorts for me..(yet)..it seems like we are breaking our of month long consolidation to upside..so we may see this run more than we think..
DOW - I think we test 13k
FTSE - 6250 ish
DAX lagging..needs to break out at 7050 - and then fill gap up to 7300
EURO...open skies at mo..

mho..only...

 

[Hook Shot]

Hi HS

I'm just gone short dow at 12687 and 12741, fluid stop at 12760, where have
you got your stop.

Hi bp
Mine was at 700 and the rest if history
Not a conviction short cos I was long ftse as hinted at in prev msg.
To be honest I messed up cos I should have bought the early pbk in dow - that would have been more sensible.

Incidentally, cat may be right about 13k cos I've got that as potential target for this week.
I have to say though that for those looking for a longer rally the dow may not be the best place to be...
i.e Goldman Sachs is rallying came off a multiweek low today ... just one example.

Then again... best to keep it simple ..... eh
======================================================================================
My style or approach may not suit everyone cos I'm looking at or tracking loads of stuff - so best to ignore me most times

 

[bottomleyp]

Dow short

Closed both positions @ 12700, small profit.
Thanks for your word of wisdom HS and Cat

 

[jayjay121]

so how about a long term swing trade short on the dow?................13000 will be a good entry point by the sounds of it. stop being around 14000 and target around 11000............does this sound like a viable trade to you guys over a swing trade of up to 1 year?



jason

 

[Hook Shot]

so how about a long term swing trade short on the dow?................13000 will be a good entry point by the sounds of it. stop being around 14000 and target around 11000............does this sound like a viable trade to you guys over a swing trade of up to 1 year?



jason

Punting short 13k by friday close seems reasonable (2me) on sell order ........
Of course if it doesn't get triggered you make nowt but lose nowt too

 

[ramsey]

Dow Jones & Stop Losses

Hi all,

Sorry if this is off topic but I didnt want to start a new thread just to ask this question.


How do you work out a stop loss from a percentage figure?


(stop losses = 0.49%) ref (euroanalytica.com)

I can't find a reference to this.

I am considering trading the DOW in a small way using IGindex.

Any help please.

Thanks

 

[firewalker99]

Hi all,

Sorry if this is off topic but I didnt want to start a new thread just to ask this question.

How do you work out a stop loss from a percentage figure?

(stop losses = 0.49%) ref (euroanalytica.com)
I can't find a reference to this.

I am considering trading the DOW in a small way using IGindex.
Any help please.

Thanks

Not sure what that 0.49% is meant to represent. But I take it you mean by that you risk 0.49% of your equity on a single trade?

Suppose you are trading with 10K. 0,49% equals 49 € (or $ or £ or whatever) you want to risk per trade. The next thing you do is look at what the value of 1 point in your market is. If you are trading of the DOW futures for example 1 point equals 5$. Suppose your maximum risk is 49$ per trade, you should place your stop at 49 points away from your entry point.

If you are spreadbetting it's a different thing though. You can put any stake on you like (SB's will correct me if I'm wrong). So if you trade with 1$ per point you can put your stop as wide as 49 points. If you trade with 7$ per point, you should place your stop as close as 7 points.

Hope this makes sense.

There are several threads available if you want to discuss the use and placement of stops:

Stop Losses

Planning and Money Management

I'd also recommended having a look at a recent discussion about stops here:
The Three Keys, starting by post #102 up to post #133.

 

[dans_ya_man]

Whats happened to this thread:?:
Thought there would be lots of posts today during this sharp decline.
So it looks like it never quite made it to the 12800/13000 zone, are we now 11400- bound:?:

 

[kool4caats]

Whats happened to this thread:?:
Thought there would be lots of posts today during this sharp decline.
So it looks like it never quite made it to the 12800/13000 zone, are we now 11400- bound:?:

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a rebound from the current low of today, making up most of the lost ground by the end of the day.

I don't really have much to base that on at the moment, but my original analysis was looking at 12950 by the middle of next week, which I don't think is out of the question.

I'll have a better idea having review the week's charts over the weekend. Then I'll get 'em posted!

 

[Hook Shot]

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a rebound from the current low of today, making up most of the lost ground by the end of the day.

I don't really have much to base that on at the moment, but my original analysis was looking at 12950 by the middle of next week, which I don't think is out of the question.

I'll have a better idea having review the week's charts over the weekend. Then I'll get 'em posted!

I'd luv, really luv it.......
Dax regularly ends the week on the soft side ....only to take off the following week ... so that's what I'm looking at ... just in case it happens again... yep still in that 6700/7000-7050 range so interesting......

For dow a bad day is down 400 or so .......which chimes with 12200 potential sppt .... but below 12500 is not good ... maybe...

 

[DDI]

was short 12360 came out 12340. support is 12250 and 12200 but I wont wait till there.

Although there is nothing suggesting reversal (eg no bulisg divergences) and all momentum indicators + ADX showing bearish momentum, last fridays last 30 mins is still fresh in my mind!!!!

 

[Atilla]

was short 12360 came out 12340. support is 12250 and 12200 but I wont wait till there.

Although there is nothing suggesting reversal (eg no bulisg divergences) and all momentum indicators + ADX showing bearish momentum, last fridays last 30 mins is still fresh in my mind!!!!

Go short and stick a SL @ 300 :idea: