Dow 2008

[firewalker99]

was short 12360 came out 12340. support is 12250 and 12200 but I wont wait till there.

Although there is nothing suggesting reversal (eg no bulisg divergences) and all momentum indicators + ADX showing bearish momentum, last fridays last 30 mins is still fresh in my mind!!!!

So you took a nice short, defined support beforehand, identified what the market was telling you correctly but still only managed a handful of points?

Start thinking about what's in front of you, not what happened last week or last month. All irrelevant information that can influence your decisions. Besides, who says the traders on this Friday evening or the same as those on last Friday? And even if they were...I doubt they care what happened a week ago.

 

[DDI]

So you took a nice short, defined support beforehand, identified what the market was telling you correctly but still only managed a handful of points?

Start thinking about what's in front of you, not what happened last week or last month. All irrelevant information that can influence your decisions. Besides, who says the traders on this Friday evening or the same as those on last Friday? And even if they were...I doubt they care what happened a week ago.

That is true...of course last friday wasnt the reason for my exit. If I thought there was even a slim chance of it repeating I would've bought call options heavy.

No the reason I pulled out is simply the profit amount. My indicators were telling me to stay in but I did not want to lose this profit.

Although I know exactly what I am doing when entering a trade (in terms of my own criteria), I am not very skilled handling a profitable position so when I am sitting on good profit I just take it. I have lost profits far too many times. I've concluded that by taking profits consistenly my performance will be respectable allbeit I tend to sometimes miss the big moves.

 

[firewalker99]

That is true...of course last friday wasnt the reason for my exit. If I thought there was even a slim chance of it repeating I would've bought call options heavy.

No the reason I pulled out is simply the profit amount. My indicators were telling me to stay in but I did not want to lose this profit.

Although I know exactly what I am doing when entering a trade (in terms of my own criteria), I am not very skilled handling a profitable position so when I am sitting on good profit I just take it. I have lost profits far too many times. I've concluded that by taking profits consistenly my performance will be respectable allbeit I tend to sometimes miss the big moves.

I hear what you're saying... I've had it happen to myself no several occasions. Seeing a profitable trade go back to your entry point ultimately leading to stopping yourself out at breakeven is hardly what you'd want to happen.

On the other hand, if your plan is sound and you see no reason to exit (like today), why not trail your price or once your predetermined profit target is hit scale some out, and leave a part of your position open?

"My indicators were telling me to stay in but I did not want to lose this profit." That's something a lot of people do, and I made the mistake myself many times. Closing a trade because you "feel" the profits is enough is very subjective. How much is enough? If you just lost 40 points on a previous trade will you close this one if you have +25? Probably not. But if you just made +50 on a previous trade, you might want to close it at +20 and quit for the day. But all those decisions are not based on anything in the chart...

Price found support near the close at 12250 and bounced of there. So your initial target was spot on. But you can't gain 200 points by taking profits after 20 each time...

My compliments on the entry though.

 

[DDI]

I hear what you're saying... I've had it happen to myself no several occasions. Seeing a profitable trade go back to your entry point ultimately leading to stopping yourself out at breakeven is hardly what you'd want to happen.

On the other hand, if your plan is sound and you see no reason to exit (like today), why not trail your price or once your predetermined profit target is hit scale some out, and leave a part of your position open?

Price found support near the close at 12250 and bounced of there. So your initial target was spot on. But you can't gain 200 points by taking profits after 20 each time...

My compliments on the entry though.

Thanks for you reply.

The problem I have with trailing stop is that you have to leave it based on short term S/R (+/- a few pips) and if it gets hit, it eats big chunk of profit.

Scaling out is good idea if my position is heavy but as I dont risk more than 0.5%max per trade, scaling out again can end up leaving no profit!

Despite I try very hard applying all my tools (price, indicators) for entires, but for exits I think I will use the strategy of exiting when profit is 2 or 3 times your risk.

Also adding to your note on the frustration of seeing a profitable position revert back to entry, it plays with the mind particularly if this happens to several consecutive entries.Couple this to the losses incurred on the unsuccessful entries then the frustration hits the mind which in return stops me thinking rationally for my future trades!!

 

[catracho]

Thread quiet cos..most markets still in ranges since end Jan...

for Bears:
Dow needs to stil break 12100 convincingly
DAX 6650
FTSE.5650 ish

For bulls:
Dow needs to break 12800
FTSE ...broke out at 6000 (but maybe false break - so now look for 6050 convincing)
DAX...7050 and higher..

let's hope somthing happens soon!:whistling

 

[firewalker99]

Thanks for you reply.

The problem I have with trailing stop is that you have to leave it based on short term S/R (+/- a few pips) and if it gets hit, it eats big chunk of profit.

Scaling out is good idea if my position is heavy but as I dont risk more than 0.5%max per trade, scaling out again can end up leaving no profit!

Despite I try very hard applying all my tools (price, indicators) for entires, but for exits I think I will use the strategy of exiting when profit is 2 or 3 times your risk.

Also adding to your note on the frustration of seeing a profitable position revert back to entry, it plays with the mind particularly if this happens to several consecutive entries.Couple this to the losses incurred on the unsuccessful entries then the frustration hits the mind which in return stops me thinking rationally for my future trades!!

I realize scaling out is strictly speaking not the optimal solution to lock in most profits over time, but it is one method that usually gives the trader more comfort and opens the way to leaving the other part of his position open. It's basically "a free ride".

If you have a good win rate, than taking profits at 2 or 3 times your risk sounds like a sensible thing to do. Although the downside to this is that you'll most likely never be able to enjoy a real big winner. I used to trade with fixed targets, but they'd get me very frustrated. Sometimes price would come as close as a tick and then reverse, other times it would travel 5 times as far. You wouldn't believe the time I spent doing statistics and analyses about what the optimal exit point would be. There just isn't one... you need to be dynamic and flexible under each and every of the possible market circumstances.

Btw, do you use volume as an "indicator" too for exits?

 

[DDI]

If you have a good win rate, than taking profits at 2 or 3 times your risk sounds like a sensible thing to do. Although the downside to this is that you'll most likely never be able to enjoy a real big winner. I used to trade with fixed targets, but they'd get me very frustrated. Sometimes price would come as close as a tick and then reverse, other times it would travel 5 times as far. You wouldn't believe the time I spent doing statistics and analyses about what the optimal exit point would be. There just isn't one... you need to be dynamic and flexible under each and every of the possible market circumstances.

Btw, do you use volume as an "indicator" too for exits?

True but the reality is there are 2 nasty scenarios we all experience even from a winning trade:

1) Exiting and then seeing trade going your way.
2) Not taking profits and seeing trade goes back against you.

I always ask myself which one hurts more and its the latter. Of course it all depends on ones situation for eg, if I had a good run and my performance is good, then I may let a trade run but these days where I am non too clever I take my profits to boost my performance and stop me from entering negative territory.

I do not use volume for indicator. My profit targets S/R levels but if I get a warning from my indicators (eg bullish divergence if I am short) then I prepare to exit.

 

[Atilla]

Hi everyone,

Another creep up to 12800 imo but didn't quite make it. Is this a second attempt at the resistance 12800 with a rising wedge before breaching it at the third attempt or is this a total rejection of the neckline on the bigger H&S formation before another big drop down?

I favour the down side in the long run but in the short term I feel one last good shake out could be in the making for the bears. If this shake out materialises beyond 12800 I can't see the market going much above 13200. I hope it does as it will bring the bears out to play.

If the market falls below 12134 or 12015 as per my Pivot point support levels then much bigger falls will come into sight. 11500 looks good as the the next resting point.

This write up is not much different to what I was thinking about a month ago but this sideways move after the big falls is perhaps only to be expected.

Somebody asked if these were my views sometime last week. Sorry for the late reply but everything I write is my view only. If there are any similarity to any articles out there it's because great minds think alike... (Or fools seldom differ :cheesy...

I'd be interested to know all your views moving into March. Good trading everyone...

 

[Hook Shot]

Historically March is often interesting..

Often times we get a key turning point within the first or second week of March....
2007 and 2003 to cite 2 off the cuff examples...........but there are more.... if my memory is correct.
2000 highs were in March but not within first 2wks....

Lastly it probablymeans nothing (again) but today is 144d from the peak of Spx in Oct (I think).........

Aside from that anyone know why Ftse is so strong (relatively speaking) ?
-I mentiooned previously fund management companies near the top of their 52W range and Man Group was the one I had in mind... it's not done bad for me

Hbos is a gift for the patient but around this zone getting pretty close to something.......:smart: ?

 

[bottomleyp]

FTSE Strength

Reckon FTSE is still strong, because of the Commodity stocks, oils, precious metals etc.
Commodities are all sitting at the Highs.
Waiting to see if DOW /FTSE bounces today.

 

[Hook Shot]

Thanks

Cheers Bp bit asleep on that one....
"Feels" like markets have a low** but naturally "will wait and see"...........since dax still awful- plenty of work needed to trurn that around this week .......
- for now watching 1320 on sp futs - just to be difft :cheesy:

** Edit: Nikkei is my primary guide in coming to this conclusion and euro indices second

 

[Hook Shot]

Gosh I'm good 2 u lot

Cheers Bp bit asleep on that one....
"Feels" like markets have a low** but naturally "will wait and see"...........since dax still awful- plenty of work needed to trurn that around this week .......
- for now watching 1320 on sp futs - just to be difft :cheesy:

** Edit: Nikkei is my primary guide in coming to this conclusion and euro indices second

Where did we bounce eh ??

 

[jonnyy40]

Looks horrifically bearish to me.

 

[Pat494]

Sooner or later we are going to get a stats minded person on these threads who will take the time to analyse the trades.
Perhaps trader XXXX won 10 - lost 5 last week or something. Could be interesting. We all keep a mental tag I guess. e.g.trader YYYY has just shorted so i had better consider longs a bit more

 

[jonnyy40]

I had a message permanently at the top of my screen saying 'you have not posted for weeks etc.' So I posted.

 

[bottomleyp]

Dow Today

Looks like Intel is going to drag the market down today !

 

[dans_ya_man]

Wow that was some bounce up!

150+ in the space of a hour, I`m hoping we will have one more go at the 12800/13000 zone before the big drop.

Not really looking too good at the the mo though and my only hope is that 12000 holds

 

[Atilla]

Wow that was some bounce up!

150+ in the space of a hour, I`m hoping we will have one more go at the 12800/13000 zone before the big drop.

Not really looking too good at the the mo though and my only hope is that 12000 holds

I'm half expecting something similar. A false one last shake out.

Either it will hold and rise hard and fast or we tank 2000 pips down... The bigger H&S in the weekly charts is clearly visible now.

Strap your selves in boys and hold on to your rides... :clap:

 

[mrpunter]

non-farm payroll pretty dire but unemployment not as bad as expected!?
anybody calling direction today?

ps jonny please change your avatar, I keep thinking I'm on the wrong forum!!!

 

[postman]

evening chaps
rearmed here and looking for the downside as per last weeks target not looking to hold any longer than 8pm tomorrow though

Anyone know what happened to the thread starter - this is his last post from 11th Feb.
The Dow was at 12229 that day and went up 300 points in 2 days from there!