Dow 2008

[firewalker99]

Right thats me, all closed down

I will eat my slippers on monday Fw if required

Good trading and have a good weekend all

Make sure you tape it so we can watch it on YouTube :cheesy:

 

[black bear]

Why FTSE blackbear, is it because of the trading hours you prefer trading in the am?


if we do get higher, than I think this wasn't a bear market...

cya later and good weekend!

Fw

Thats it FW, suits real well, 7:45- 13:00 ish usually finish at dinner but sometimes all the planets line up and its worth staying on, sort of news event but a little bit more predictable imho

like the Dow but house full and required to be ..............

in multiple spots at the same time = can you just seems to be all I ever hear after mid afternoon = more pain than its worth

Its a Bear imho

and it could be the big one, an absolute top for many years, we could even see a final blow off right out the top, I think its just the start, but then like you say it does"nt really matter a jot intrad day you can make money both ways most days

lol, slippers on my feet, not closing out just yet Fw

 

[Crap Buddist]

Its a Bear imho

an absolute top for many years

Right, now go have a sh!t in the woods and then its all final.

 

[Hook Shot]

Looks like Oscar got us in ....in 1380's didn't think we'd see it.......... whether we see 1409 or 1412++ (sp futs)who knows but we are in and so are stops.....

 

[Crap Buddist]

Your informed market snapshot.

Bloomberg financial commentators are on top form again and I quote,

"Looks like the Dows taken another leg down for no particular reason"

Keep on pumping it out there !!

 

[Devilicus]

Going for a short here at 12870 (actually trading the spx but that's the current price of my DOW cash)

A little wary as the daily chart looks like it has the potential to break to the upside to me, looking at a possible 500 point move up. Never the less, im just playing in the short term looking for a dip on monday.

Stop of about 60 pips on this trade.

Happy weekend all.

 

[black bear]

arrrrrr thats better, see what you mean Mr Buddist

Right, now go have a sh!t in the woods and then its all final.

arrrrrr thats better, see what you mean Mr Buddist

charts a 1/4 and I can see what you mean

its errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...............

:-0 A BULL BEAR MARKET :smart:

Good weekend all :clover:

 

[dans_ya_man]

Thought this e-mail I recieved today might be of interest to some of you, have a butchers.

Investors may wonder how the market can possibly rally when the economy resembles a punch-drunk boxer hanging on the ropes. The answer is fairly simple: the big money is not betting on the economy it is betting on inflation.

The Fed is printing money as fast as it can — in order to save the banking system from annihilation. Nobody gets up off the canvas without assistance after taking a 1 trillion dollar sock on the jaw. While the Fed can provide liquidity, there is only one way to protect banks from falling asset prices which threaten to wipe out their reserves. That is to create inflation — to reverse the fall in asset prices.

Investors and financial markets response to low interest rates from the Fed is to borrow all that they can and invest in real assets in anticipation of rising prices. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as demand for real assets exceeds supply, driving up prices.....and the next asset bubble is born.

The Fed does not mind, as investors mop up surplus money in the system and prevent it from flowing through to consumption — where it would affect consumer prices. Economists thought that they had found the holy grail. They could stimulate the economy without any significant impact on consumer prices. Only to discover that it is a poison chalice. There is no quarantine fence around asset bubbles and eventually higher asset prices flow through to consumers. When average workers can no longer afford to buy their own home, upward pressure on wages starts to rise. And when asset bubbles burst, as they are prone to, causing severe shocks to the economy, the Fed's only available response is to..... you guessed it ....... print more money and start the next asset bubble. The ever-increasing shocks are eroding the ability of the economy to recover and grow in a stable, predictable environment.

So where is the next asset bubble likely to occur? With wounds from collapse of the housing bubble still fresh, there are only two viable alternatives: stocks and commodities.

Inflation targeting by central banks is a major cause of bubbles. Inflation targeting is based on CPI which is a poor measure of the loss of purchasing power of the dollar. Why have house prices doubled in the last 5 years if inflation is averaging between 2 and 3 percent? Not to mention gold, oil and most other commodities. By using CPI as a measure, the Fed responds to crises long after the real damage is caused. Ever tried to steer your car while looking through the rear window to see where you are going? No wonder the Fed crashes into the sidewalk every time they encounter a bend in the road.

If you believe this is all too complicated and best left to a bunch of academic economists and self-interested bankers to sort out, allow me to remind you that the definition of stupidity is to repeat the same action and expect a different result.

If you agree with this opinion, please share it with your friends and colleagues.

USA
The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment fell to 62.6, the lowest level since 1982.

 

[Pat494]

Thought this e-mail I recieved today might be of interest to some of you, have a butchers.

Investors may wonder how the market can possibly rally when the economy resembles a punch-drunk boxer hanging on the ropes. The answer is fairly simple: the big money is not betting on the economy it is betting on inflation.

The Fed is printing money as fast as it can — in order to save the banking system from annihilation. Nobody gets up off the canvas without assistance after taking a 1 trillion dollar sock on the jaw. While the Fed can provide liquidity, there is only one way to protect banks from falling asset prices which threaten to wipe out their reserves. That is to create inflation — to reverse the fall in asset prices.

Investors and financial markets response to low interest rates from the Fed is to borrow all that they can and invest in real assets in anticipation of rising prices. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as demand for real assets exceeds supply, driving up prices.....and the next asset bubble is born.

The Fed does not mind, as investors mop up surplus money in the system and prevent it from flowing through to consumption — where it would affect consumer prices. Economists thought that they had found the holy grail. They could stimulate the economy without any significant impact on consumer prices. Only to discover that it is a poison chalice. There is no quarantine fence around asset bubbles and eventually higher asset prices flow through to consumers. When average workers can no longer afford to buy their own home, upward pressure on wages starts to rise. And when asset bubbles burst, as they are prone to, causing severe shocks to the economy, the Fed's only available response is to..... you guessed it ....... print more money and start the next asset bubble. The ever-increasing shocks are eroding the ability of the economy to recover and grow in a stable, predictable environment.

.

If only they would make the dollar note bigger and eventually it could be economical to replace loo paper withit LOL

 

[Hook Shot]

Steady on Pat

If only they would make the dollar note bigger and eventually it could be economical to replace loo paper withit LOL

As you know the dollar index is at the highest this month and almost the highest in 2months............ :cheesy:

 

[Pat494]

As you know the dollar index is at the highest this month and almost the highest in 2months............ :cheesy:

Yer right - I must restrain my humour. Just looking into the distant future a bit !!
Come January NEW team. Adieu to Bush and co.

 

[Atilla]

Hello everyone,

We are approaching a resistance line with the DOW around the 13000s. I'm reluctant to think 13000 may be breached but it is always a possibility. Worst scenario I have is 13200. Pivot point R2=13052 approx.

I'll be driven by the direction of my MAs but anytime soon expecting a substantial move down.

Waiting, watching and listening... :cheesy:

Good trading everyone.

 

[Hook Shot]

Atilla
Has the downtrend off the all time highs been broken or not... ?
Difficult to tell from your chart...

 

[firewalker99]

Hello everyone,

We are approaching a resistance line with the DOW around the 13000s. I'm reluctant to think 13000 may be breached but it is always a possibility. Worst scenario I have is 13200. Pivot point R2=13052 approx.

Funny how you'd say an upmove is the "worst scenario" out there

I'll be driven by the direction of my MAs but anytime soon expecting a substantial move down.

My sentiment is the same, although I must admit to what I see on the chart, and that is at the moment rather bullish. :-0 Speaking of MA's, it's close on touching the 200-day MA...

 

[breadman]

Looking for the dow to top out in May levels to watch out for a top are 12960, 13090, 13160.Short term overbought, looking for a bit of a selloff into employement figures on Friday. I think they will be alot worse than people expect, which will mean the selloff continues for a day maybe two before a bottom is found and then a up move. looking for a top 8,9 10 of May or 16, 17,18,19 of May.

 

[firewalker99]

Atilla
Has the downtrend off the all time highs been broken or not... ?
Difficult to tell from your chart...

We should keep in mind that a break of a line drawn by the trader might not be as important. Trendlines don't offer support/resistance - although they might coincide with some reactions - and I've seen enough false breaks to know what could happen...

Interesting times ahead. Look at the bullishness of the DOW Transports. :-0

 

[firewalker99]

Looking for the dow to top out in May levels to watch out for a top are 12960, 13090, 13160.Short term overbought, looking for a bit of a selloff into employement figures on Friday. I think they will be alot worse than people expect, which will mean the selloff continues for a day maybe two before a bottom is found and then a up move. looking for a top 8,9 10 of May or 16, 17,18,19 of May.

Any reason you come up with all these dates?

I think Wednesday is the crucial day here this week... Fed: 'to cut or not to cut'
If they don't cut (which is what I expect), I think the market isn't going to like that...

 

[Pat494]

Any reason you come up with all these dates?

I think Wednesday is the crucial day here this week... Fed: 'to cut or not to cut'
If they don't cut (which is what I expect), I think the market isn't going to like that...

Market gurus expecting a 25 point cut

Benny looking a bit more composed than a few months ago.

 

[breadman]

firewalker99,
the reason for the dates are that it is 45 trading days from the 10th of March low on the 9th of May. 45, 90 and 180 day cycles do have a better than average chance of picking tops and bottoms. the 9th is a Friday so the 8th of May a day before and the 12 the next trading day after are possible.
their are 365 days in the year 86 days is 23.6%, 139 days is 38.2%, 182 days is 50% and 225 days is 61.8%. the 18th of May is 86 days, 23.6% from the 22nd of January low which is the low for this move down. I should have said 15/16 and 19/ 20 as these are the market open days.
I think I favour 15/16 19/20 for the top.

 

[firewalker99]

firewalker99,
the reason for the dates are that it is 45 trading days from the 10th of March low on the 9th of May. 45, 90 and 180 day cycles do have a better than average chance of picking tops and bottoms. the 9th is a Friday so the 8th of May a day before and the 12 the next trading day after are possible.
their are 365 days in the year 86 days is 23.6%, 139 days is 38.2%, 182 days is 50% and 225 days is 61.8%. the 18th of May is 86 days, 23.6% from the 22nd of January low which is the low for this move down. I should have said 15/16 and 19/ 20 as these are the market open days.
I think I favour 15/16 19/20 for the top.

I see. But if you count 90 days from the January lows we should've topped already...