Dow 2008

[KUTERO]

2:30 pm :
Losses remain steep as the session progresses. Stocks remain hamstrung by uncertainty whether the House of Representatives will approve of a plan to purchase distressed assets from financial institutions.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi stated she would not bring the Senate's recently passed bill to the floor if there were not enough votes for passage.

 

[Atilla]

2:30 pm :
Losses remain steep as the session progresses. Stocks remain hamstrung by uncertainty whether the House of Representatives will approve of a plan to purchase distressed assets from financial institutions.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi stated she would not bring the Senate's recently passed bill to the floor if there were not enough votes for passage.

Hi guys,

I've missed the evening session but the moves looks extra-ordinary. Up down up down but we seem to be dropping below S1 @ 10486 and so S2 is at 10373 which is new target until the DOW bounces. If it bounces.

I can't help thinking there is a big bounce due too but how far can it go... 10,000 ????

Best not to pick bottoms... :cheesy:

 

[KUTERO]

Hi guys,

I've missed the evening session but the moves looks extra-ordinary. Up down up down but we seem to be dropping below S1 @ 10486 and so S2 is at 10373 which is new target until the DOW bounces. If it bounces.

I can't help thinking there is a big bounce due too but how far can it go... 10,000 ????

Best not to pick bottoms... :cheesy:

I suppose, tomorrow will be better..

 

[leovirgo]

For me it was a nice shortsale day and there wasn't any Buffet spike..lol.. Just follow the market internals.

 

[KUTERO]

Wall Street has suffered another huge drop amid growing fears that the government's financial rescue plan might not be enough to ward off a recession.

Investors are also discouraged after news from the government of declining factory orders and a seven-year high in jobless claims.

Stocks decline on unemployment, factory reports: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

 

[Atilla]

Hi guys,

History does repeat it self... Not surprising we mention 1929 a lot these days.
This chart is based on 2000-2003 but the tear down has been much quicker.

At this moment in time I'm tempted to think this recession will be deep but short lived.

Quicker the price adjustments - quicker the housing recovery which will get us out of this recession - just like post 1929.


On a FA level - Fed funding -

I honestly sincerely think it is a pile of crap to fund American wars. After all the billions pumped into the markets already how can they possibly need another 700bn???

1. Why isn't the Banks raising money in the markets by issuing more capital as some already done so?
2. Why don't wealthy shareholders trump up the cash? Put up or shut up.
3. Why is there no accountability or audit on the Fed?
4. How can the independent non-audited Fed request $700bn on a 4 page document to the White House?
5. Of all this passage in time why are they trying to pass this bill as if the day ends tomorrow if this bill doesn't get passed?
6. What a load of tosh? Man on the street rise up and start a revolution for capitalism and free markets. Do away with communism and state funding!
7. Why don't they just call off their stupid wars and get the Pentagon to refund the $160bn given to them in May of this year.

Big stink about it all.

8. The senate are right to insist on period for debate and accountability.
9. Why - as suggested by George Soros, the White House aren't managing this via an elected body and instead monies being given to the non-audited, non-accountable - 4 page request Fed?
10. Why shouldn't the government bail the banks out in exchange for their shareholding. That is Institution in need of funding issue new shares at market prices and government acts as guarantor picking up share issues not taken up by the market?
11. Government can then sell shares and recoup monies.
12. Institutions can also buy back the shares once panic is over at market prices.

WHY WHY WHY???

Big freaking cover up that's why.

Fed and White House are the biggest mafiozies in town.

I do sincerely hopes the Senate sees through their bull **** and the good people of USA kick these freaking bankers and corrupt politicians into touch.


Coming back to the charts, I reckon bottom support is about to kick in at these levels. I have 9500s as absolute bottom.

 

[fibonelli]

Hi Atilla,

Nice chart.

There's a double head and shoulders pattern. The second H&S pattern with the barely perceptible shoulders gives downside target of roughly 11100-14100=-3000+11100=8100.

Beware, the same pattern occured on Gold and has so far failed!

 

[Atilla]

Hi Atilla,

Nice chart.

There's a double head and shoulders pattern. The second H&S pattern with the barely perceptible shoulders gives downside target of roughly 11100-14100=-3000+11100=8100.

Beware, the same pattern occured on Gold and has so far failed!

Hi Fibonelli,

I've looked into your numbers and drawn the lines and that is the bigger H&S in play. I concur with your point of view.

If that does materialise then we have a potentially much greater H&S in turn. Whilst I think and hope this is a short lived recession it could well be deep and prolonged... A very scary thought.

It is possible I guess if McCain and Palin get in. I'm sure between them they'll make Bush cowboy look good. We've had actors, cowboys and now rednecks. What next??? :whistling

 

[Pat494]

The banks can't really issue billions of new shares because hardly anybody wants to buy them. The underwriters certainly don't want to be lumbered with them.
The rescue package may not be perfect but it's ALL the USA has got to get back on track imho. The barn door is half shut now but must have the House of Reps close it before what's left of the economy disappears.
The "religious nut" view that the economy must somehow heal itself without any medicine is plainly ridiculous and highly dangerous.
If the world's economic driving force commits suicide then we are all f*cked good and proper.
Buffett is happy grabbing large slices of GE etc. but it's definately not the answer to the man in the street wanting to meet his bills. It's the rednecks that say tough luck to the "trailer trash" !!
Do the decent thing US Reps for the majority of Americans and it's the right thing to do too luckily.
:smart::smart:
Have to disagree with you here AT - sorry . Nice cheese tho

 

[Atilla]

The banks can't really issue billions of new shares because hardly anybody wants to buy them. Yes they can. At the right price there will be buyers. Why can't they or don't they want to dilute shareholder value? The underwriters certainly don't want to be lumbered with them. Correct, so you have government - tax payer buy and own shares.
The rescue package may not be perfect but it's ALL the USA has got to get back on track imho. That's what they would like you to believe in their 4 page - 7bn request note... The barn door is half shut now but must have the House of Reps close it before what's left of the economy disappears. Real economy will always be there. We need to make distinction between real tangible assets and nominal paper values.
The "religious nut" view that the economy must somehow heal itself without any medicine is plainly ridiculous and highly dangerous. Medicine is the market equilibrium achieved by price movements matching supply and demand when win/win transaction scenario takes place. You've lost me on the religious nut bit I'm afraid Pat

If the world's economic driving force commits suicide then we are all f*cked good and proper. They have already committed suicide by not sorting out
1. Budget defecit 7%+
2. BoP defecit
3. Falling dollar they did nothing to stop

Buffett is happy grabbing large slices of GE etc. but it's definately not the answer to the man in the street wanting to meet his bills. It's the rednecks that say tough luck to the "trailer trash" !!
Do the decent thing US Reps for the majority of Americans and it's the right thing to do too luckily. Why the mad cow rush to pass a 4 page 7bn dollar bill? Surely that's not a smart move.
:smart::smart:
Have to disagree with you here AT - sorry . Nice cheese tho

Think what efficient markets would do without government involvement.

Koreans were prepared to buy Lehman for the right price. Fund exceeded himself in his personal valuation. What subsequently happened. Barclays and some other bank (Japaneese) purchased what's valuable in Lehmans.

Get the right issue price and there will be buyers out there. Rest government picks up and owns.

• Banks get money,
• True valuations returns to market,
• Assets and liabilities for government balances out
• Shareholders get postponed dividends and my well become more aggressive in setting bonuses.
• Governments and tax payers have opportunity to recoup monies back when situation irons it self out.

Wake up everyone. There is no substance to this 700 bn bailout.

700bn will mean the US tax payer will be laden with lead weight whilst trying to pull out of this recession by higher taxes. :smart:

The White House is littered with lies and deceit. Can you expect anything else from this government? :idea:

 

[Pat494]

The White House is littered with lies and deceit. Can you expect anything else from this government?

This is the "last hurrah" from the worst administration the US has had for 100 years.
Buffett & company are coining it in, while Mr average American suffers.
At last trying to do something properly so won't look so bad in the history books imho

 

[Atilla]

The White House is littered with lies and deceit. Can you expect anything else from this government?

This is the "last hurrah" from the worst administration the US has had for 100 years.
Buffett & company are coining it in, while Mr average American suffers.
At last trying to do something properly so won't look so bad in the history books imho

Yep, but I reckon they are hiding sinister secrets. They aren't worried about your average US citizen, not in the least. They are worried about financing their wars for the next 2-3 years when they know 'dogdarn' well (excuse me whilst I throw up at that cute little stupid pig with lipstick on) they have no money left in the kitty.

Wake up everyone.

4 page document and mad rush to pass a $7bn bill to a non-accountable, non-audited instititution called the Fed. 'Let's do this! Let's do this NOW!'

I wouldn't be surprised if couple of senators voting against the bill start having accidents very soon.

 

[Atilla]

Long @ 10540, SL @ 10520

 

[Atilla]

Long @ 10540, SL @ 10520

Closed @ 10556. +16

 

[breadman]

the TED spread, which is the difference between three-month LIBOR and three-month US Treasury bills is over 2.00 which is a sign the system is breaking down. The last time it was this high was just before the big crash in 1987.
Lets hope they can sort something out to limit the damage.

I posted this a week ago but I have posted it again as it is one of the most important signs that the market is in serious trouble. The money market have stopped working and even with the 700billion it might not be enough or at least the results might not happen fast enough. I would not hold any long overnight positions for the next week. The VIX is giving a very high fear reading which is a buy sign 98% of the time but sometimes the fear is justified, and this could be one of those times.
If we have a big fall into 10th of October we could get a bounce around this time,sometime between the 10th and 15th.

 

[Atilla]

the TED spread, which is the difference between three-month LIBOR and three-month US Treasury bills is over 2.00 which is a sign the system is breaking down. The last time it was this high was just before the big crash in 1987.
Lets hope they can sort something out to limit the damage.

I posted this a week ago but I have posted it again as it is one of the most important signs that the market is in serious trouble. The money market have stopped working and even with the 700billion it might not be enough or at least the results might not happen fast enough. I would not hold any long overnight positions for the next week. The VIX is giving a very high fear reading which is a buy sign 98% of the time but sometimes the fear is justified, and this could be one of those times.
If we have a big fall into 10th of October we could get a bounce around this time.

Markets and politicians have ballsed up big time Breadman. Technically re: working of market I have no doubt you are correct.

Solution is totally incorrect.

Announcing a rescue plan with new valuation and issue of shares with Government guarantee would mean a better take up of these new shares, greater transparancy, accountability with an efficient, equitable solution to the crises.

It's all about confidence and this $700bn 4 page document - will only further damage any confidence the world has on the Fed or the White House.

No way to run the markets or country.

Worst that can happen if I was government - like Russia - cease withdrawals and leakages by capital flow restrictions. Has been done before. Look at Argentina from just couple of years ago.

The real enemy is within.

 

[Atilla]

Buy @ 10540, SL 10520.

 

[KTF]

Expecting a good NFP?

 

[Atilla]

Expecting a good NFP?

Pooh bear... Stopped out. -20 :whistling


Going to have some grub now. When is the result due?

 

[breadman]

Markets and politicians have ballsed up big time Breadman. Technically re: working of market I have no doubt you are correct.

Solution is totally incorrect.

Announcing a rescue plan with new valuation and issue of shares with Government guarantee would mean a better take up of these new shares, greater transparancy, accountability with an efficient, equitable solution to the crises.

It's all about confidence and this $700bn 4 page document - will only further damage any confidence the world has on the Fed or the White House.

No way to run the markets or country.

Worst that can happen if I was government - like Russia - cease withdrawals and leakages by capital flow restrictions. Has been done before. Look at Argentina from just couple of years ago.

The real enemy is within.

Atilla,

I would not be suprised if the banks in America were shut down for a week while they try and sort out this mess. It happened in the 1930, they shut down and the strong ones reopened and the weak ones never opened their doors again.