Don't think that we'll see that this time around !mombasa said:
Correction is overdue and when this wall of new fiscal year money is absorbed reality should reassert itself.
I'm still short on the NDX from last week and the real question is when and where do we top out ! :cheesy:
short from 11,225. I agree with the early poster- a move down to 11160-80 will probably be bought. first day of month, caterpillar's strength- today is for the bulls. Although crude's push may impact- but we're used to these levels now. It will take another new high to shake a few people. I would not bet against it happening though. Overall, happy to be short but only looking for 50 pips so nothing drastic
Since you're short from 11115 where have you put your stop ?mombasa said:I'm not taking any chances !! Got badly burnt last time.
Still short but this time I've got a stop
My small spec Dow short was stopped out but I wouldn't seriously short this until we broke below 11100 !
Rising interest rates begin to bite homeowners
USA Today: Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the 15th time since June 2004 and signaled that at least one more increase is likely. That trend is ominous for borrowers who were seduced by adjustable-rate loans that offered interest-only payment options or teaser rates below 2% or that let the borrower pay less than the interest owed. They will face bigger payment shock once their loans reset to higher rates.
The number of borrowers in trouble will rise this year and peak in 2007 and 2008 as the largest number of mortgages reset to higher rates, according to First American Real Estate Solutions, a real estate data provider. Already, in West Virginia, Alabama, Michigan, Missouri and Tennessee, about one in five homeowners with a high-interest (subprime) ARM was at least 30 days late at the end of last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. After 90 days, the foreclosure clock starts ticking. Most of those foreclosures are related to job losses in auto and garment factories; higher mortgage payments were often the last straw.
What worries experts such as Christopher Cagan at First American Real Estate Solutions are the adjustable-rate loans made in 2004 and 2005, at the end of the housing boom. These loans were concentrated in the hottest markets, such as California, where about 60% of all loans last year were interest-only or payment-option ARMs. That's the highest such rate in the country. Of the 7.7 million households who took out ARMs over the past two years to buy or refinance, up to 1 million could lose their homes through foreclosure over the next five years because they won't be able to afford their mortgage payments, and their homes will be worth less than they owe, according to Cagan's research.
The losses to the banking industry, he estimates, will exceed $100 billion. That's less than the damage from the savings-and-loan crisis in the 1990s, which cost the country $150 billion. "It will sting the economy, but it won't break it," he says.
USA Today: Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the 15th time since June 2004 and signaled that at least one more increase is likely. That trend is ominous for borrowers who were seduced by adjustable-rate loans that offered interest-only payment options or teaser rates below 2% or that let the borrower pay less than the interest owed. They will face bigger payment shock once their loans reset to higher rates.
The number of borrowers in trouble will rise this year and peak in 2007 and 2008 as the largest number of mortgages reset to higher rates, according to First American Real Estate Solutions, a real estate data provider. Already, in West Virginia, Alabama, Michigan, Missouri and Tennessee, about one in five homeowners with a high-interest (subprime) ARM was at least 30 days late at the end of last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. After 90 days, the foreclosure clock starts ticking. Most of those foreclosures are related to job losses in auto and garment factories; higher mortgage payments were often the last straw.
What worries experts such as Christopher Cagan at First American Real Estate Solutions are the adjustable-rate loans made in 2004 and 2005, at the end of the housing boom. These loans were concentrated in the hottest markets, such as California, where about 60% of all loans last year were interest-only or payment-option ARMs. That's the highest such rate in the country. Of the 7.7 million households who took out ARMs over the past two years to buy or refinance, up to 1 million could lose their homes through foreclosure over the next five years because they won't be able to afford their mortgage payments, and their homes will be worth less than they owe, according to Cagan's research.
The losses to the banking industry, he estimates, will exceed $100 billion. That's less than the damage from the savings-and-loan crisis in the 1990s, which cost the country $150 billion. "It will sting the economy, but it won't break it," he says.
Another Oil Challenge for Bush
BBC: 3rd April 2006
Analysis by the US Department of Energy (DoE) shows that at $50 a barrel Venezuela - not Saudi Arabia - will have the biggest oil reserves in Opec. Venezuela has vast deposits of extra-heavy oil in the Orinoco. Traditionally these have not been counted because at $20 a barrel they were too expensive to exploit - but at $50 a barrel melting them into liquid petroleum becomes extremely profitable. The DoE report shows that at today's prices Venezuela's oil reserves are bigger than those of the entire Middle East - including Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Iran and Iraq.
Venezuela's deposits alone could extend the oil age for another 100 years. The DoE estimates that the Venezuelan government controls 1.3 trillion barrels of oil - more than the entire declared oil reserves of the rest of the planet. Mr Chavez told Newsnight "Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. In the future Venezuela won't have any oil but that's in the 22nd Century." He will ask the Opec meeting in June to formally accept that Venezuela's reserves are now bigger than Saudi Arabia's.
Mr Chavez's increased muscle will not go down well in Washington, which is deeply opposed to his government. Ironically, by invading Iraq, George W Bush has boosted oil prices and effectively transferred billions of dollars from American consumers to the Venezuelan government. At $50 a barrel Venezuela will have the biggest oil reserves in Opec. Up to $200m a day - half of it from the US - is flooding into Caracas.
Mr Chavez is spending this on building infrastructure and increasing the minimum wage and improving health and education in the poor ranchos which surround the cities. As a result even his opponents accept that Mr Chavez is extremely popular and will easily win the next presidential election in December. Mr Chavez is also spending billions in the rest of Latin America - exchanging contracts for oil tankers and infrastructure projects and buying up debt in Argentina and Brazil. He has made cheap oil deals with Ecuador and the Caribbean. He has also spent some of the dollars which have come in from the US to support Fidel Castro in Cuba. In return Cuba has supplied the thousands of doctors and teachers who are transforming conditions in the barrios of Caracas.
Washington accuses Mr Chavez of buying influence in Latin America. The Venezuelan president has repeatedly won democratic elections and the opposition operates freely although some members have been charged with accepting illegal foreign donations. Nonetheless Bush's administration repeatedly targets Mr Chavez on human rights and finances his opponents. Earlier this year, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld compared Mr Chavez to Hitler - because he was elected democratically.
Mr Chavez told Newsnight he was still concerned that Mr Bush had not learned the lessons of Iraq and would order an invasion to try to secure Venezuela's oil. "I pray this will not happen because US soldiers will bite the dust and so will we, Venezuelans," he said. He warned that any such attempt would lead to a prolonged guerrilla war and an end to oil production. "The US people should know there will be no oil for anyone." Mr Chavez does not accept UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's criticism of him for lining up with Mr Castro. He told Newsnight: "If someone is sleeping together it is Bush and Blair. They share the same bed."
BBC: 3rd April 2006
Analysis by the US Department of Energy (DoE) shows that at $50 a barrel Venezuela - not Saudi Arabia - will have the biggest oil reserves in Opec. Venezuela has vast deposits of extra-heavy oil in the Orinoco. Traditionally these have not been counted because at $20 a barrel they were too expensive to exploit - but at $50 a barrel melting them into liquid petroleum becomes extremely profitable. The DoE report shows that at today's prices Venezuela's oil reserves are bigger than those of the entire Middle East - including Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Iran and Iraq.
Venezuela's deposits alone could extend the oil age for another 100 years. The DoE estimates that the Venezuelan government controls 1.3 trillion barrels of oil - more than the entire declared oil reserves of the rest of the planet. Mr Chavez told Newsnight "Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. In the future Venezuela won't have any oil but that's in the 22nd Century." He will ask the Opec meeting in June to formally accept that Venezuela's reserves are now bigger than Saudi Arabia's.
Mr Chavez's increased muscle will not go down well in Washington, which is deeply opposed to his government. Ironically, by invading Iraq, George W Bush has boosted oil prices and effectively transferred billions of dollars from American consumers to the Venezuelan government. At $50 a barrel Venezuela will have the biggest oil reserves in Opec. Up to $200m a day - half of it from the US - is flooding into Caracas.
Mr Chavez is spending this on building infrastructure and increasing the minimum wage and improving health and education in the poor ranchos which surround the cities. As a result even his opponents accept that Mr Chavez is extremely popular and will easily win the next presidential election in December. Mr Chavez is also spending billions in the rest of Latin America - exchanging contracts for oil tankers and infrastructure projects and buying up debt in Argentina and Brazil. He has made cheap oil deals with Ecuador and the Caribbean. He has also spent some of the dollars which have come in from the US to support Fidel Castro in Cuba. In return Cuba has supplied the thousands of doctors and teachers who are transforming conditions in the barrios of Caracas.
Washington accuses Mr Chavez of buying influence in Latin America. The Venezuelan president has repeatedly won democratic elections and the opposition operates freely although some members have been charged with accepting illegal foreign donations. Nonetheless Bush's administration repeatedly targets Mr Chavez on human rights and finances his opponents. Earlier this year, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld compared Mr Chavez to Hitler - because he was elected democratically.
Mr Chavez told Newsnight he was still concerned that Mr Bush had not learned the lessons of Iraq and would order an invasion to try to secure Venezuela's oil. "I pray this will not happen because US soldiers will bite the dust and so will we, Venezuelans," he said. He warned that any such attempt would lead to a prolonged guerrilla war and an end to oil production. "The US people should know there will be no oil for anyone." Mr Chavez does not accept UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's criticism of him for lining up with Mr Castro. He told Newsnight: "If someone is sleeping together it is Bush and Blair. They share the same bed."
Racer
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Push the bulls........
"The Dow's performance lived up to recent historical precedent. The benchmark index has ended the first session of the month with gains eight of the past 11 times, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
April is still the best month in the year for the blue-chip index, with an average gain of 1.8% since 1950, the Almanac said. "
"The Dow's performance lived up to recent historical precedent. The benchmark index has ended the first session of the month with gains eight of the past 11 times, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
April is still the best month in the year for the blue-chip index, with an average gain of 1.8% since 1950, the Almanac said. "
Pat494
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kriesau said:
It does indeed. I used the future, June being the nearest offered by Fins, in case I needed an overnight position. As it was it looked as though the drop last night would cause a bounce in the opposite direction i.e. up so I took the profit. Just as well as the fut is up by 7 points currently.
Pat494
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Sorry to see some got stopped out yesterday, when without a stop they would have made a tidy profit. It raises that thorny question of stops again.
Personally in an oscillating market I don't even have a very long stop. I know that this is heresy for some BUT if you are able to have some recent historically based factual confidence then imho one doesn't need a stop and just accept the sure fact that occasionally one gets it wrong ( usually an unforeseen fundamental event ). These occasional events should be more than adequately be compensated for by all the plusses.
If one is a little unsure then don't bet against the trend.
Any views ??
Personally in an oscillating market I don't even have a very long stop. I know that this is heresy for some BUT if you are able to have some recent historically based factual confidence then imho one doesn't need a stop and just accept the sure fact that occasionally one gets it wrong ( usually an unforeseen fundamental event ). These occasional events should be more than adequately be compensated for by all the plusses.
If one is a little unsure then don't bet against the trend.
Any views ??
Bigbusiness
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I thought it was a good idea not to use a stop at one time but those large hits every now and then were annoying and I became fed up of trying to get out of a bad trade, instead of just cutting my losses and looking for a better opportunity. What happens when volatility returns to the markets? Every now and them someone goes broke by not using stops, why take that risk?
JillyB
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Does anyone using CMC to trade the DOW have spikes at 15.09 - down to 1000 and 15.10 up to 11,450 showing on their charts?
They have totally wiped out my charts making it impossible to see what is going on.
I have asked CMC dealing desk, but no repsonse as yet.
I have restarted the program as well, but they are still there.
Any thoughts on why? Or what they are?
They have totally wiped out my charts making it impossible to see what is going on.
I have asked CMC dealing desk, but no repsonse as yet.
I have restarted the program as well, but they are still there.
Any thoughts on why? Or what they are?