Does 200% gain per year sound ridiculous?

[MajorDutch]

Lol. Wind up.

yeah 12.5% is a bit loose, more like 13.19% in my book :clap:

 

[MajorDutch]

another quality thread ruined

 

[scose-no-doubt]

another quality thread

Stop it You're killing me

 

[MajorDutch]

Stop it You're killing me

wait for the new blackswan video from cmc, your sides might split. remember 'all strategies work' lol.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Good news for my 5m doji super-pin reversal ganno-fib strategy

 

[wackypete2]

Please don't be naive, I assure you these little cornershops re-use their capital several times in a year, they do make a lot, in % terms more than you can make in trading.

I talked to a local guy once, about 200% investments, he runs a small business trading animal & pet food supplies, he already makes 200% / year and I have seen the numbers! and he pays almost no tax, because his trucks always mysterioulsy 'break down', and after getting overpriced receipts from the mechanics he offsets his tax liability to near zero. business car maintainance is very expensive you see...

err...how much of that 200% would you say comes from cheating the gov't?

Peter

 

[vergis92]

yeah 12.5% is a bit loose, more like 13.19% in my book :clap:

Nope, it's EXACTLY 12.5% !


you can calculate a probability using several diferent ways, sometimes it'd difficult to have accurate results, but some things CAN be calculated with 100% accuracy.

When you are making trading decisions on the news my boy, you are actually taking a tripple combination bet:

(bad OR good news ) x ( better OR worse than analysts expext) x (priced in already by the market OR not), each statement is a 50-50 bet, with probability
of 50% or 0.5 ( 1 = 100%, 0.5=50% etc)

hence: ( 0.5 ) x ( 0.5 ) x ( 0.5 ) = 0.125 or 12.5%:!:

It's 12.5% , case closed!


Sorry I don't have sense of humor, but everything I say here is to do with the real world.


Technical traders will feel vindicated

 

[Shakone]

idiot

 

[vergis92]

err...how much of that 200% would you say comes from cheating the gov't?

Peter

Why do you think Toyota and Renault sponsor F1 racing? spending 'billions' to develop new F1 engines (whose life duration is 1 hour or so), they inflate the figures, and EVRYTHING they spend on the spirit of car racing is offset against their tax liability.

Why did Michael Suchmacher moved his 800 million Euro to Switzerland and lives there, and not in Germany?


Their moral fiber on tax liability is an example for the rest of us.....

 

[vergis92]

Yeah it's less than 0.5% a day continuously compounded. Not ridiulous if you leverage highly. But it seems the opening poster hasn't been profitable except on sim and is claiming 200% returns and touting to manage someone's account. That is the ridiculous part. Then again, maybe I've misread...

sorry, you misundersttod me, the original thread has been removed for some reason, I was just debating whether 200% a year seems ridiculous to claim, and I can see that people have mixed views. The original statement I posted had to do with simulated trading over 3 month period of continous trading at 60 something % gains, in various market conditions.

More specifically going from $150,000 to about $250,000, maybe there was someone who might have been interested, but regardless, if it was real money why would I ask to trade someone else's acc??


Sorry to break the news to yo, but some people I know, (at least 6 people) including a clever lawyer, invested a lot of money and lost it all in the markets,
the said lawyer invested the equivalent of 1.2m Euros in the early 2000s, and blew it all, and 10 years now he trades all day trying to recover small aounts,

and yes, he's just as stubborn as anyone else, if you tell him 'I have a better way to trade' he will laugh at you.

I have lost $25,000 in my lifetime, and managed to come out with winning strategies in the end, he lost over 1m Euros, and he will NEVER get it back!

After all why bother figuring out how to win, he makes a lot out of his lawyer job.



And finally, remember that simulated trading can make you real money,
I saw the guy who won Alpari's trading competition, his performance was
slightly under 100% in a month, and he won $5000 real prize, you think that achievement was easy?

 

[amit1986]

Nope, it's EXACTLY 12.5% !


you can calculate a probability using several diferent ways, sometimes it'd difficult to have accurate results, but some things CAN be calculated with 100% accuracy.

When you are making trading decisions on the news my boy, you are actually taking a tripple combination bet:

(bad OR good news ) x ( better OR worse than analysts expext) x (priced in already by the market OR not), each statement is a 50-50 bet, with probability
of 50% or 0.5 ( 1 = 100%, 0.5=50% etc)

hence: ( 0.5 ) x ( 0.5 ) x ( 0.5 ) = 0.125 or 12.5%:!:

It's 12.5% , case closed!


Sorry I don't have sense of humor, but everything I say here is to do with the real world.


Technical traders will feel vindicated

You can only multiply probabilities if and only if those events are independent of each other.

Just as a one-off: a better or worse than analyst expectations report is NOT independent of the good news or bad news. Your entire calculation, whilst flawed from the beginning, falls apart here.

 

[DionysusToast]

I will show details to the investor / acc holder only, nobody else, average profit on these Option trades is 8% per 4-10 days, that is $80 on every $1,000 invested.

if you do it with futures it will be higher, but also more stressful and tricky

Like I told you, it took me many years to make any consistent profit even on the simulated platform, and as far as scalping goes, I did it with real money also back then and it did not lose , what has made me lose that $25,000 was swing trading, and in bunches of small accounts at a time, $2000 -$4000 each acc I blew.

and even my early crude techniques that tore me apart, if were implemented on a large acc, without greed, I wouldn't have suffered forced margin liquidation, and would have come out at profit. I once lost £3000 in 2 days, in a market drop, 10 days later the market was back up rising higher and higher.


Case in point: In March 2003 , around the time just before the invasion of Iraq, markets were plummeting, I predicted the bottom, ONE DAY IN ADAVANCE , proving many so called experts wrong (I knew it was March, and also used one more indicator specific to detecting bottoms and pinpointed the exact day)

The markets rallied sharply for the rest of the year, and I had no money to ride this rally, except for some small gains in the beginning, after that I traded small size again, suffered both unecessary and justified FML and always kept losing in the end.

it is normal for people in their 20s to make these mistakes and miscalculate risks relating to money management, and I don't believe I will ever find an acc to trade, I have talked to millionaire investors already, and noticed that most of them are not in any necessity for urgent profits, while others just don't trust you.

And I won't beg anyone for such collaboration, I can implement a forex scalping technique on just $3000, and make some basic income, and these 11 years will come in handy after all.

look - I hate to p1$$ on your strawberries but....

You have never made money trading.

Any idiot can open up 10 SIM accounts and end up looking like Buddha because one of them made some moolah.

Fact is, even a retard with a little knowledge of probabilities can end up with a SIM account showing stellar results.

Nobody will give you money based on a SIM account, not unless they are retarded.

So - put your money where your mouth is & then look for funding.

 

[vergis92]

You can only multiply probabilities if and only if those events are independent of each other.

Just as a one-off: a better or worse than analyst expectations report is NOT independent of the good news or bad news. Your entire calculation, whilst flawed from the beginning, falls apart here.

Sorry I mean no offense but you are not in touch with reality, I will break it down for you:


1) (better OR worse Relative to past report / previous quarter earnings etc)

2) (better OR worse than analsysts expect)

3) (priced in the market already OR not)



it's 3 (THREE!!!) BETS combined

and I challenge you to prove otherwise,

the probability is 12.5% , when trading on news, if you rely on news + technical setup then that's another story, but sure there are people ho trade exclusively on the news or report or earnigs releases, and when they win it's nothing than coincidence, there's NO WAY they can make sense of the situation

 

[Sidekicker]

Nope, it's EXACTLY 12.5% !


you can calculate a probability using several diferent ways, sometimes it'd difficult to have accurate results, but some things CAN be calculated with 100% accuracy.

When you are making trading decisions on the news my boy, you are actually taking a tripple combination bet:

(bad OR good news ) x ( better OR worse than analysts expext) x (priced in already by the market OR not), each statement is a 50-50 bet, with probability
of 50% or 0.5 ( 1 = 100%, 0.5=50% etc)

hence: ( 0.5 ) x ( 0.5 ) x ( 0.5 ) = 0.125 or 12.5%:!:

It's 12.5% , case closed!


Sorry I don't have sense of humor, but everything I say here is to do with the real world.


Technical traders will feel vindicated

You are forgetting to factor in the probability of being spiked out of trades on both sides.

 

[Shakone]

You're not betting on the news though are you, you're betting on the direction it takes after the news. You don't need to be right about all 3 to make money trading around the news, you don't even need to be right about ANY of them. It's nonsense. And even if it wasn't, you're still wrong on how you calculate the probability as Amit pointed out.

 

[amit1986]

Sorry I mean no offense but you are not in touch with reality, I will break it down for you:


1) (better OR worse Relative to past report / previous quarter earnings etc)

2) (better OR worse than analsysts expect)

3) (priced in the market already OR not)



it's 3 (THREE!!!) BETS combined

and I challenge you to prove otherwise,

the probability is 12.5% , when trading on news, if you rely on news + technical setup then that's another story, but sure there are people ho trade exclusively on the news or report or earnigs releases, and when they win it's nothing than coincidence, there's NO WAY they can make sense of the situation

I don't think you seem to understand. First of all, what I said remains true. None of the three events above are independent of one another.

Another flaw in your argument is to assume a 50% probability of each of those events. Consider a developed economy in an expansion phase. Consumers are spending, prices are rising, and therefore, corporate profits are rising. In this type of market, there is almost certainly going to be companies that will report better than expected profits. Thus, the probability will be greater than 0.5.

If it makes you feel any better, I do agree with you that trading based entirely on predicting news is not practical. However, your statistical arguments are based entirely on incorrect assumptions and imprecise calculations.

 

[MajorDutch]

Nope, it's EXACTLY 12.5% !


you can calculate a probability using several diferent ways, sometimes it'd difficult to have accurate results, but some things CAN be calculated with 100% accuracy.

When you are making trading decisions on the news my boy, you are actually taking a tripple combination bet:

(bad OR good news ) x ( better OR worse than analysts expext) x (priced in already by the market OR not), each statement is a 50-50 bet, with probability
of 50% or 0.5 ( 1 = 100%, 0.5=50% etc)

hence: ( 0.5 ) x ( 0.5 ) x ( 0.5 ) = 0.125 or 12.5%:!:

It's 12.5% , case closed!


Sorry I don't have sense of humor, but everything I say here is to do with the real world.


Technical traders will feel vindicated

I recommend that you get a job at your local quick service restaurant preferably one with automated machines to take the thinking part out.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Amit, don't be so silly. Everyone knows (or ought to know) that complex econometric models used by "so called professionals" are horse5hit and everything can computed through simple Bayes. Just write options for x%/month with the really smart bods or risk ridicule.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

"What's the matter? They got you pushing too many pencils?" - Dutch

 

[vergis92]

look - I hate to p1$$ on your strawberries but....

You have never made money trading.

Any idiot can open up 10 SIM accounts and end up looking like Buddha because one of them made some moolah.

Fact is, even a retard with a little knowledge of probabilities can end up with a SIM account showing stellar results.

Nobody will give you money based on a SIM account, not unless they are retarded.

So - put your money where your mouth is & then look for funding.

Don't worry, nobody will be easily convinced to allow me to trade their acc even if I make a fortune with real money, because past peformance is never indicative of future success. We have seen even long experienced institutional investors fail miserably and blowing entire banks apart, such as LTCM

And if they could figure out your trading technique and no longer need you, they would abandon you immedietly, so let them go their way, and I will go mine.

and for your knowledge, there's a $500,000 investor from Turkey who is interested in my trading, though even if we go ahead we will only implement techniques that are impossible to figure out.

and regardless of my forex /drectional stock trading, even if he doesn't like that under no circumstances, there are other, arbitrage techniques where yo make a small profit no matter what happens in the market, the criteria for entry are very difficult to spot, but that's precisely why the market offers it.

so we will see...