Does 200% gain per year sound ridiculous?

[vergis92]

Dude, OpX sucks balls. The commissions they charge are the highest I've seen, and coupled to the B-A they makes many trades difficult to even break even.

The might be the problem. Anley has it right in that IB is a much better alternative. They only charge like $1 for options trades. Much, much better than OpX. The offset is a bare-bones approach to stuff like charts, data, etc.

What time frame you use in your trading? average trade duration?

 

[vergis92]

How is it possible to know LESS about predicting market direction that someone that traded for 8 years and lost money, then SIM traded another 3 years and settled on a non-directional system?

This is a wind-up, right?

Yes 8 years losing, (until 2008) , and turned around since. but even those 8 years were not straightforward, it was mixed results with a losing bottom line.
The techniques I am using ARE mostly directional, but focus on small % stock price movement.

That guy in the US , didn't even pay attention to implied volatility, he is using very simple momentum based analysis, and some tricks of his own - (which are amazingly true and accurate, as long as some criteria are met).

I am sorry, but it's not easy to make money either on simulated FX or Options platform, and if you fail at those how is a serious investor going to test you further under his terms, before he lets you on a live acc

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Ydidn't even pay attention to implied volatility

erm yes he did. He managed IV through his probability of touching proxy metric. What he ignored to his peril (imho) was his gamma and theta exposure.

How does your startegy deal with gamma and theta?

What about the option strategy above? Are you trading outrights?

 

[vergis92]

How is it possible to know LESS about predicting market direction that someone that traded for 8 years and lost money, then SIM traded another 3 years and settled on a non-directional system?

This is a wind-up, right?

and above all, the guy in the US he followed a simple, proven course of some kind, and used that to find his momentum stocks, when I was losing my $25,000 I tried all sorts of things, did not use any real proven plan, and never traded Options. and I lost most of the money following subscription services' tips, and experimenting with
my own things which were both good and bad techniques. Since 2008 I was trained by veterans, and I also managed to separate bad from good out of everything I had used.

The difference between him and me, is in things and market factors that he does not pay attention to, he considers every day in the market to be the same - I don't! I pay attention tot the 'day of the week factor' if for example the market has had a strong first-half in the week (monday -tuesday UP), then I almost certainly expect Thursday to be a down, or weak day with deep intra-day low.

He would have left his winning Option trades open till weak Thursday, whereas I would have closed at profit on Wednesday, then looked to re-enter at better , lower price at that Thursday low. That simple tip alone make a big difference in your profitability.

 

[vergis92]

erm yes he did. He managed IV through his probability of touching proxy metric. What he ignored to his peril (imho) was his gamma and theta exposure.

How does your startegy deal with gamma and theta?

What about the option strategy above? Are you trading outrights?

gamma I don't pay attention to in this strategy, I pay attention to probability of the stock moving X % between Monday and Wednesday (where most straight rallies occur) or through Thursday - Monday if a decline is expected.

Then I pay attention to Delta, and make sure the Option has 5 months+ to expiry
and implied volatility, if the Options have too high implied volatility it's wise to switch for another correlated stock, with same setup and lower IV.

That is the directional trade part.

Then if the trade goes bad, you have to figure out where the market is going, and how to hedge / or add to the trade.

I don't use news / reports / , on the stocks, only intrinsic value information
when going long, to reduce the risk of betting on a bubble stock.


Some interesting facts I keep in mind are:

1) 70% of the time, the market goes sideways / no solid trend to be expected

2) News / reports are impossible to make sense of, you only have 12.5% probability of using them correctly

3) Seasonal patterns and day of the week ( we know that major bottoms are to be expected around March and October, in this case you can set up a long term trade )

4) look out for patterns that hint short term lows and highs

 

[Patricia12]

I think, it is possible but not for all. Only experienced trader make double profit in trading on the basis of their experience and strong profitable trading strategies.

 

[DionysusToast]

Yes 8 years losing, (until 2008) , and turned around since. but even those 8 years were not straightforward, it was mixed results with a losing bottom line.
The techniques I am using ARE mostly directional, but focus on small % stock price movement.

That guy in the US , didn't even pay attention to implied volatility, he is using very simple momentum based analysis, and some tricks of his own - (which are amazingly true and accurate, as long as some criteria are met).

I am sorry, but it's not easy to make money either on simulated FX or Options platform, and if you fail at those how is a serious investor going to test you further under his terms, before he lets you on a live acc

Your trading has only turned around if you are profitable trading real money.

Why not present some of your trades, what positions you entered, what you got in terms of premium and what your maximum exposure was?

 

[DionysusToast]

The difference between him and me, is in things and market factors that he does not pay attention to, he considers every day in the market to be the same - I don't! I pay attention tot the 'day of the week factor' if for example the market has had a strong first-half in the week (monday -tuesday UP), then I almost certainly expect Thursday to be a down, or weak day with deep intra-day low.

Well - the other difference between him & you is he's trading real money and making a profit with it. He's clearly able to handle the pressures of trading with real money.

 

[Sidekicker]

I recently posted a thread looking for acc to trade, and claiming that I can make up to 200% per year using the described techniques, all the response and comments I got were arrogant, implying that I am either a scammer of some kind or that 200% is not possible, or that there's definitely something wrong in the said trading techniques and simulated acc results. (every possibility to eliminate the claim)


How much is a 200% annual gain, in absolute numbers ? it means to tripple a given amount of money, $1 becomes $3 over the course of one year.


And people seem to be too naive about the profitability of ordinary small to medium businesses , such as convenience stores / corner shops, small trading businesses that actually do make 200% per year, within the lmits of their market.

If a corner shop owner invests £20,000 to fill the shop's shelves, he expects after buying and selling new stock several times, in a year, to have got back £60,000 by year end.


As far as the 200% gain a year, I see nothing ridiculous, I just think that most people are conditioned to think suspiciously, and make premature assumptions.



let's see the % gain performance of other, hands-on investments, with direct, tangible assets:


Antiques & fine art investing - it is possible to make 10 fold gains if you try hard enough, if you do nothing, and just buy and sell, you still make 10-20% a year, without serious risk of losing money.


Biofuels investing: You can make a fortune, as long as you invest in the right market, right country, and take advantage of tax loop holes that allow you to sell big quanitties of fuel, such as biodiesel to companies that operate truck fleets.
Profitability? it really has no limit, you can invest $300,000 and make $50 millions over 3 years, or 450% a year.

and no, I cannot match the possible realistic gains of fine art or biofels, in my stock trading by any means, but 200% is possible.

So to the arrogant negative thinkers out there, I can't see what's the big deal when an investment proposal says, that $1 can be turned into $3.:?:

Do they really make 200% a year?
Most small business, if they are doing well, are in the less than 50% margin region after expenses and everything else included. Big business much less even if on each particular item they might be charging 200-400% over what they boiught the goods for at wholesale.
Is 200% achievable in trading? Maybe but with a big account it will be harder.
As an example, I made 62% last year and I've been doing this for a few years. However, I know full well that wasn't at maximum efficiency.

 

[vergis92]

Your trading has only turned around if you are profitable trading real money.

Why not present some of your trades, what positions you entered, what you got in terms of premium and what your maximum exposure was?

I will show details to the investor / acc holder only, nobody else, average profit on these Option trades is 8% per 4-10 days, that is $80 on every $1,000 invested.

if you do it with futures it will be higher, but also more stressful and tricky

Like I told you, it took me many years to make any consistent profit even on the simulated platform, and as far as scalping goes, I did it with real money also back then and it did not lose , what has made me lose that $25,000 was swing trading, and in bunches of small accounts at a time, $2000 -$4000 each acc I blew.

and even my early crude techniques that tore me apart, if were implemented on a large acc, without greed, I wouldn't have suffered forced margin liquidation, and would have come out at profit. I once lost £3000 in 2 days, in a market drop, 10 days later the market was back up rising higher and higher.


Case in point: In March 2003 , around the time just before the invasion of Iraq, markets were plummeting, I predicted the bottom, ONE DAY IN ADAVANCE , proving many so called experts wrong (I knew it was March, and also used one more indicator specific to detecting bottoms and pinpointed the exact day)

The markets rallied sharply for the rest of the year, and I had no money to ride this rally, except for some small gains in the beginning, after that I traded small size again, suffered both unecessary and justified FML and always kept losing in the end.

it is normal for people in their 20s to make these mistakes and miscalculate risks relating to money management, and I don't believe I will ever find an acc to trade, I have talked to millionaire investors already, and noticed that most of them are not in any necessity for urgent profits, while others just don't trust you.

And I won't beg anyone for such collaboration, I can implement a forex scalping technique on just $3000, and make some basic income, and these 11 years will come in handy after all.

 

[vergis92]

Do they really make 200% a year?
Most small business, if they are doing well, are in the less than 50% margin region after expenses and everything else included. Big business much less even if on each particular item they might be charging 200-400% over what they boiught the goods for at wholesale.
Is 200% achievable in trading? Maybe but with a big account it will be harder.
As an example, I made 62% last year and I've been doing this for a few years. However, I know full well that wasn't at maximum efficiency.

Please don't be naive, I assure you these little cornershops re-use their capital several times in a year, they do make a lot, in % terms more than you can make in trading.

I talked to a local guy once, about 200% investments, he runs a small business trading animal & pet food supplies, he already makes 200% / year and I have seen the numbers! and he pays almost no tax, because his trucks always mysterioulsy 'break down', and after getting overpriced receipts from the mechanics he offsets his tax liability to near zero. business car maintainance is very expensive you see...

If someone allowed me to trade their acc, and if we had to pay 35% capital gains tax, on a capial of $100,000 that would yield $200,000 profits, or $130,000 after tax, net profit would be just $65,000 for each of us.

 

[leonarda]

200% in a year, slacker! I've done 200% in 2 days thank you!
Last week I had £50 in my account, now I have £150 !

 

[ZEN archer]

It sounds ridiculous, but it can be done (more than that and in shorter time - personal experience).

If you use averaging and no stops is one of the ways - of course you need a high percentage success trading system (80%+).

But again, it's not a very good way for traders who get upset too much if they blow their account (or lose even more than that - if broker doesn't close their 'no stops averaged' position).

 

[YouAreNotFree]

I know someone who does well over 200% a year. It's someone I know personally, not through the internet.

 

[MajorDutch]

what about 10.5% per month return for 1 year compounded (this is the same thing).

1 x 1.105^11 = 3 = 200% return.

I would say 10% per month compounded consistently is perfectly possible for a professional tarder but it isn't easy and not many traders could get that consistently. not 5hit sherlock.

please correct my maths if I has been a tarde.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

professional tarder

correct my maths if I has been a tarde.

Lulz

 

[Shakone]

Yeah it's less than 0.5% a day continuously compounded. Not ridiulous if you leverage highly. But it seems the opening poster hasn't been profitable except on sim and is claiming 200% returns and touting to manage someone's account. That is the ridiculous part. Then again, maybe I've misread...

 

[MajorDutch]

Lulz

not my fualt I am dysxleic. doesnt effect my tarding.

 

[Sidekicker]

Here we go again...
Daily compounding, no stops, and averaging in.
Enough of this thread now..."I'm out".

 

[Shakone]

Some interesting facts I keep in mind are:

1) 70% of the time, the market goes sideways / no solid trend to be expected

2) News / reports are impossible to make sense of, you only have 12.5% probability of using them correctly

3) Seasonal patterns and day of the week ( we know that major bottoms are to be expected around March and October, in this case you can set up a long term trade )

4) look out for patterns that hint short term lows and highs

Lol. Wind up.