DB an Geo's Smallcap Smorgasbord

[dr.blix]

not that i want to criticise geo, as my ignorance of all this stuff is quite shocking...but, 50/50 doesn't seem like a big advantage.

i would have thought you could achieve 50/50 by using a confirmed trendline rejection, or channels?

obviously i'm not saying it doesn't work (i haven't read the book yet!!), but it just seems like a complicated way of achieving a 50% probability...what do you think?

 

[dr.blix]

RGM up 10%

INGG up 14%

i think a push past the 300 for the FTSE would really get things moving.

INGG down to + 3%

 

[Geofract]

If we look at Amec a little earlier on, the correction doesn't give a buy trigger in September because there are not 3 down days - the last red down day is actually an inside bar. However, if you're using S/R levels like Sir Minch, then you would be long with a percieved RBS on the break above the 2nd September I suppose.

I've marked a couple of other signals that occur in late Oct with blue arrows. Again, on false signal, and one good.

 

[Geofract]

INGG down to + 3%

Umm, you got to be quick with these shares!

 

[Geofract]

not that i want to criticise geo, as my ignorance of all this stuff is quite shocking...but, 50/50 doesn't seem like a big advantage.

i would have thought you could achieve 50/50 by using a confirmed trendline rejection, or channels?

obviously i'm not saying it doesn't work (i haven't read the book yet!!), but it just seems like a complicated way of achieving a 50% probability...what do you think?

To be honest you shouldn't quote me on the 50/50 thing, I could be wrong. But yeah, if it's true, then it's not great. I will have to do more backtesting.

Either way, it's a mechanical method, with blunt edges. I suppose adding in S/R Levels, fibs, TL's, etc is the way to go to make this more sophisticated, which is what I shall try and do.

 

[dr.blix]

Umm, you got to be quick with these shares!

i know, i don't think i have the best attitude for trading smallcaps...if i miss something because i'm AFK or working i get belligerent and won't sell until its 'bloody well gone back up again' :cheesy:

like i can scold a mining company for not behaving properly

 

[Geofract]

i know, i don't think i have the best attitude for trading smallcaps...if i miss something because i'm AFK or working i get belligerent and won't sell until its 'bloody well gone back up again' :cheesy:

like i can scold a mining company for not behaving properly

It's the same old thing matey, when to exit! Is there an answer?

 

[dr.blix]

It's the same old thing matey, when to exit! Is there an answer?

possibly yes.

a realistic daily target. pts or money.

if price has blasted through what would be your achieved daily target, then you're allowed to place your stop @ your target and let it run.

you see, without a daily/weekly target...how do you know when you've finished your days/weeks work?!

 

[Geofract]

We're already half way to having the longest thread in this section! lol - do I sound competitive?

Rock on everyone Keep posting!

 

[minch]

Hey Geo, thanks for the work you have put in, describing Rivallands method. :smart:

It does indeed give some decent entries looking at your Amec example, the only problem I have with the strictly mechanical approach is the missed entry at the beginning of Sept, this is why I prefer to go with the S/R levels, and to be a bit more discretionary with my entries around these zones.

But if a Rivalland set up occurs in confluence with these levels, then its a great trigger, and gives added confidence that you have turned the corner and confirmed the pivotal point.

I suppose it boils down to what suits the individual, is a balance between a mechanical/Discretionary approach a workable system.

 

[dr.blix]

We're already half way to having the longest thread in this section! lol - do I sound competitive?

Rock on everyone Keep posting!

that's the spirit geo. a bit of healthy competition.

 

[dr.blix]

Hey Geo, thanks for the work you have put in, describing Rivallands method. :smart:

It does indeed give some decent entries looking at your Amec example, the only problem I have with the strictly mechanical approach is the missed entry at the beginning of Sept, this is why I prefer to go with the S/R levels, and to be a bit more discretionary with my entries around these zones.

But if a Rivalland set up occurs in confluence with these levels, then its a great trigger, and gives added confidence that you have turned the corner and confirmed the pivotal point.

I suppose it boils down to what suits the individual, is a balance between a mechanical/Discretionary approach a workable system.

thank you both for your input re rivalland. :smart:

 

[minch]

possibly yes.

a realistic daily target. pts or money.

if price has blasted through what would be your achieved daily target, then you're allowed to place your stop @ your target and let it run.

you see, without a daily/weekly target...how do you know when you've finished your days/weeks work?!

Hey Dr B, I agree with your comment about price bursting thro a profit target level, why not squeeze the bugger for more, the difficult bit is when price dithers at the target, its a work in progress for me.

 

[dr.blix]

If we look at Amec a little earlier on, the correction doesn't give a buy trigger in September because there are not 3 down days - the last red down day is actually an inside bar.

so a lower low that happens to be a green candle isn't considered a down day...that right?

it has to be both a lower low AND a red candle?

and if you have a green candle (in a down trend) this doesn't negate the count and cause a 'reset to zero', you just skip it and resume the 3 count for any new lower red candles?

 

[dr.blix]

RGM and INGG are both stubbornly sitting @ BE.

 

[dr.blix]

Hey Dr B, I agree with your comment about price bursting thro a profit target level, why not squeeze the bugger for more, the difficult bit is when price dithers at the target, its a work in progress for me.

i'm setting some rules as i have no real plan at the moment.

i'm setting a + 10% sell limit on each position. if its really on the move (or if my initial target is greater than + 10%) then i'll place my stop on the 10%.

if its hovering i don't know what to do.

i could either close the position. set a stop at + 5%. or close half the position and leave a very tight stop...i'll have to come back to that one!

RGM has already been at +20% already and i've allowed that to pass by.

i'm also setting a weekly monetary target. this would equate to 20% of one of my average position sizes.

 

[Ciao]

hello there
just arrived (olives =€€€ lol)
I have to concentrate in USA preparing my "plan of action"
so will come to see you all later.....

hope you all had a nice morning ££££££ (Xmas getting near )

 

[dr.blix]

hello there
just arrived (olives =€€€ lol)
I have to concentrate in USA preparing my "plan of action"
so will come to see you all later.....

hope you all had a nice morning ££££££ (Xmas getting near )

good luck with the US markets today ciao.

its veterans day so i'm assuming it'll be light volume.

 

[Ciao]

good luck with the US markets today ciao.

its veterans day so i'm assuming it'll be light volume.

Thanks for that news dr.B....I didn't know
I just try if I can scalp something but not in the mood for trading (negative start!!!)

no one here trade in USA?

 

[Geofract]

so a lower low that happens to be a green candle isn't considered a down day...that right?

it has to be both a lower low AND a red candle?

and if you have a green candle (in a down trend) this doesn't negate the count and cause a 'reset to zero', you just skip it and resume the 3 count for any new lower red candles?

Yes Yes and Yes - but I have to admit I haven't read the book for a while, so I could be wrong