BSD
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Ooh la la...
Fortunes made and lost ?
"BLOOMBERG
MF Global Says Unauthorized Bets Lost $141.5 Million"
Bloomberg.com: News
To have, or not have, what.
Goldfrapp[/QUOTE]
Chaff Futures
- Thread starter rathcoole_exile
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Ooh la la...
Fortunes made and lost ?
"BLOOMBERG
MF Global Says Unauthorized Bets Lost $141.5 Million"
Bloomberg.com: News
To have, or not have, what.
Goldfrapp[/QUOTE]
BSD
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“Wheat rose the most ever yesterday [the 27th] to the seventh record high this month, then fell by the exchange-imposed daily limit before rising again by the maximum allowed. The 25 percent rally from the day’s low to its high was bigger than all but seven annual price increases for wheat since 1973.”
Bloomberg.com: News
Bloomberg.com: News
rathcoole_exile
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I'm looking into how to speculate on Chaff by-products.
Any suggestions ?
Any suggestions ?
BSD
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I'm still too stunned by my discovery that wheat leads chaff by a good 5 minutes that all creativity in all other areas has been sadly nipped in the bud to an extent that I can think of nothing but wheat and chaff at the moment.
Maybe if I lie down that will eventually pass, but there are no guarantees in that approach either, sadly.
Maybe if I lie down that will eventually pass, but there are no guarantees in that approach either, sadly.
rathcoole_exile
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Options
my broker has finally started offering Options on Chaff Futures, so I've written April Naked Puts
Go Chaff Bulls !!!! :clap:
Chaff....Bulls..... get it ? Quite ironic really when you think of the natural relationship between Chaff and cattle ........
my broker has finally started offering Options on Chaff Futures, so I've written April Naked Puts
Go Chaff Bulls !!!! :clap:
Chaff....Bulls..... get it ? Quite ironic really when you think of the natural relationship between Chaff and cattle ........
RC, BSD,
After some hesitation I got my direct connection to the OCE (Odessa Commodities Exchange).
Two things struck me immediately – Odessa’s derivative prices are 5 seconds behind Rotterdam’s spot prices; they use the wrong model to price their options.
The time lag meant I was in and out almost 300 times today with an 91% win rate on the chaff future.
Regarding their pricing model, I think they’re using a modified version of Roll, Geske, Whaley rather than Vasicek’s trinomial. To cut it short, today they were quoting 0.82 delta puts at 75% iv on Apr chaff – it lasted about 10 seconds but I managed to sell 20,000 contracts of the mothers. It then suddenly plunged to 12%. And I closed at a fat profit. How much? Put it this way, my hesitation re the connection was the annual cost of £50,000. Now I don’t need to worry about this for another four years.
Grant.
After some hesitation I got my direct connection to the OCE (Odessa Commodities Exchange).
Two things struck me immediately – Odessa’s derivative prices are 5 seconds behind Rotterdam’s spot prices; they use the wrong model to price their options.
The time lag meant I was in and out almost 300 times today with an 91% win rate on the chaff future.
Regarding their pricing model, I think they’re using a modified version of Roll, Geske, Whaley rather than Vasicek’s trinomial. To cut it short, today they were quoting 0.82 delta puts at 75% iv on Apr chaff – it lasted about 10 seconds but I managed to sell 20,000 contracts of the mothers. It then suddenly plunged to 12%. And I closed at a fat profit. How much? Put it this way, my hesitation re the connection was the annual cost of £50,000. Now I don’t need to worry about this for another four years.
Grant.
rathcoole_exile
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Grant, chafftastic stuff mate !
rathcoole_exile
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Another good call Grant, well done.
It always surprises me that more Newbies don't trade Chaff, it always seems to be one of the easiest commodities to trade, it trends very well and when in consolidation it keep hitting those channel walls like the old binatone tennis game. bip. bip.
Looks like we're coming up to 52 week highs, my money is Long, I'm betting on a breakout. Maybe not first attempt, I'll keep a watch out for divergence to give me the "GO" signal.....
I too don't understand why Chaff isn't a more popular product; I am particularly fond if it for the seasonal play, hedged out in heating oil contracts - chaff for summer; heating for winter - simple, eh?
anyway, it's a good positional play, the old chaff-crack spread.
RC,
Atm front-month put's iv in mid-fifties. Prem falls, iv's jump. Just keep selling the fckers. A friend from the Antwerp side tells me someone may just inadvertently suffer a bout of fat-finger, big long position syndrome Wednesday or Thursday, triggering massive short squeeze. Exchange will not cancel.
Mr Gecko,
Reminds me of the song, "Summer time, and the chaffing's easy". From Porky and Bess (or was it Poking Bess?).
Wonder when Markus is coming gback?
Grant.
Atm front-month put's iv in mid-fifties. Prem falls, iv's jump. Just keep selling the fckers. A friend from the Antwerp side tells me someone may just inadvertently suffer a bout of fat-finger, big long position syndrome Wednesday or Thursday, triggering massive short squeeze. Exchange will not cancel.
Mr Gecko,
Reminds me of the song, "Summer time, and the chaffing's easy". From Porky and Bess (or was it Poking Bess?).
Wonder when Markus is coming gback?
Grant.
rathcoole_exile
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i've recommended to spanish that he takes a look at Chaff.
I think the play he's trying for on the FTSE would work better on Chaff.
I reckon Long the Dec contract CF Z8 would be a good mid-term play for him ?
I think the play he's trying for on the FTSE would work better on Chaff.
I reckon Long the Dec contract CF Z8 would be a good mid-term play for him ?
rathcoole_exile
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markus seems to have disappeard the same week that i was over in germany.
but I deny any knowledge of driving down from hamburg overnight to munich, doing him in, burying him in wet concrete on a new autobahn, then racing back for meeting in hamburg the following morning
deny deny deny
but I deny any knowledge of driving down from hamburg overnight to munich, doing him in, burying him in wet concrete on a new autobahn, then racing back for meeting in hamburg the following morning
deny deny deny
rathcoole_exile
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in fact i was on my way to visit you in Monaco
Is that Monaco-sur-Mersey ?
Is that Monaco-sur-Mersey ?
rathcoole_exile
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Mr G, you're spot on with your comments about the seasonal tone to trading Chaff futures. I've noticed again, after a relatively quiet winter, that my Chaff Longs are reaping in the profits.
With the leverage available, the VIX, the liquidity and the Spread, I really think it's one of the best instruments to trade at this time of year. Have you noticed the almost 1:1 inverse colleration with Crude?
I will look to start closing my Longs come Sept/Oct....
keep up the good work !
