Casual Trader's Journal

[RockyRacoon]

Made my four bucks back, that was my main goal - for now.

 

[RockyRacoon]

Cool, I made a couple of trades Friday morning that made me about $11.00 or so, then I shorted 30 micros right about at the flipping tippy top ha ha! (The thick red dotted line is my entry)

My charts have the top at 1.30085 - I eyeballed where to set my stops just above the high and headed out to work.

Since I could not watch it, I am still short 30 micros from an avg price of 1.30023 and at the moment, that puts me in my biggest winning trade yet with a profit of $217.80.

SSSOOOOoooo, now I need to figure out if I can just let that Head and Shoulders pattern work for me and ride this position down to the 1.2830 area? Any thoughts here??

I'm going to slide my stops down to the 1.2960 area - just above those shoulders.

 

[RockyRacoon]

....and for today's lesson - how to turn a $300 profit into a $20 profit.

Very simple, have a few losing trades because you trade in chop with too large of a position size - then have the market rocket against you 100 pips.

Yep, that'll do it.

 

[RockyRacoon]

After being down about $20, I came back and made another 2% to end this session.

Though not the least bit glamorous, trading for small consistent gains continues to produce descent results over time.

 

[RockyRacoon]

Made another 2%.

I need to figure out how long before I can retire if I can just keep this up.

I'm thinking I can retire comfortably with $50k in a year or so............if I can keep this up.

 

[Waterfield]

If you continue to do this with larger sums, I won't be surprised if people would want to give you money!

What's the plan for this account?

 

[RockyRacoon]

See post below.

 

[RockyRacoon]

I stayed in this trade till the last minute before I had to leave for work this morning so I am posting it at this time even tho its about 10 hours after I closed the trade - made another +2%.

Thanks Waterfield!

The plan for this account is to continue trading for 1% - 3% gains and let it build over time. Ultimately, at some point, I will walk into work and give my 3 hour notice - I am hoping this can happen in months, not years - either way, as long as I can master my discipline, it will happen for me and when it does, this account will have served as the gateway to my financial freedom!

 

[montmorencyt2w]

....and for today's lesson - how to turn a $300 profit into a $20 profit.

Very simple, have a few losing trades because you trade in chop with too large of a position size - then have the market rocket against you 100 pips.

Yep, that'll do it.

Don't worry my friend; the EUR/USD has been in tricky times just lately and still is, what with people anticipating the stress test and a few other things going on. Well, we had the long down-trend from about Dec 2009, which turned around about 7 June 2010. Some of us thought - heck, that's just a little retracement - wrong. It's been at least a long retracement (with some significant pullbacks), and the question now is is it going to turn again. Some people are saying it can go to 1.3130-3150 or higher, but don't worry about that. Just follow the trend as far as it goes and wherever it goes.

I started looking at this thread because you mentioned pyramiding in another thread, and I was interested to see how you did it. Anyway, you seem to be doing ok.

Steady wins is good. It's nice to get a big one now and again. Try not to let them go to your head (it's easily done).

Happy trading.

 

[Chartsy]

great trading

 

[RockyRacoon]

Thanks Mike and Chartsy - I appreciate all input when it comes to this endeavor.

Checking the chart of the daily EUR/USD, we have essentially gone nowhere all week, even tho we've traded in about a 250 pip range for the week.

Trading essentially sideways for a week means we should expect a big move out of this congestion - up or down no one knows, but a week of sideways on the EUR = a huge move is coming I think. Thanks to the highest volume in months these past few weeks, my bias is down. (I am one of the best contrary indicators ever!)

I did not trade at all Friday, just did not get any descent signal.

For whatever it's worth, I am of the opinion that this rally is about over - if I am wrong, I think we will know very soon and can trade accordingly. Normally, I would have a bullish bias - however, I personally associate wide range days as a bearish thing - hence, my reasoning as to why I think the congestion zone has good reason to hold as a strong resistance.

The weekly chart I posted shows an established area of congestion (between 1.293ish and 1.360ish) that I am viewing as a formidable resistance until proven otherwise.

The 15 minute chart shows that we failed the last attempt to power through that congestion zone.

For me, I will be watching that 1.290 area - until we get a high volume, wide range day blast through, I will plan to short rallies and be ready to bail quick!

All this is nothing more than MTO.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Longer term I am pretty bearish EUR/USD (on fundamental grounds), and was surprised how long this rally went on for.

I think there are plenty of worms left to crawl out of the Eurozone woodwork, and bad though things are in the USA, they have a way of bouncing back.

I agree it's probably about over, but it could still easily go another couple of hundred pips before falling. Beware though some people are talking about it going up to 1.37 or whatever.
On the downside, I think the June lows could easily be reached again, if not lower.

So long as we trade what we see, we should be ok

 

[RockyRacoon]

Longer term I am pretty bearish EUR/USD (on fundamental grounds), and was surprised how long this rally went on for.

I think there are plenty of worms left to crawl out of the Eurozone woodwork, and bad though things are in the USA, they have a way of bouncing back.

I agree it's probably about over, but it could still easily go another couple of hundred pips before falling. Beware though some people are talking about it going up to 1.37 or whatever.
On the downside, I think the June lows could easily be reached again, if not lower.

So long as we trade what we see, we should be ok

Ha ha! That's the whole trick - leave our bias at the door and trade what we see lol - aahhh, if only it were that easy hey? lol

I gave up many years ago trading on funnymentals - never could get that right.......I do much better trading off the charts.

Charts, depending on the time frame, are saying there is clearly indecision in market direction at the moment, and I have a theme song I use for times like this- perhaps it should be the traders anthem: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItLzdZV004s&videos=g3TAJI_JDDY :cheesy:

 

[montmorencyt2w]

I'll see your Tom Petty, and raise you an Ed Seykota

(It's old and pretty well known but fun. As you say though, it's not as simple as all that.
I have 20-20 hindsight when it comes to trend spotting).

 

[RockyRacoon]

LMAO! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA :clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

Thanks for a great laugh ROFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[RockyRacoon]

Just to recap, my account is now up to $860.12 and I am up 72% since opening this account 7 weeks ago. Seems pretty good to me - way way better than any savings account.

According to my goal as I have laid out on a spreadsheet, I am $55.90 or 6.5% ahead at this point.........and I am very happy about that but for whatever reason, it sure feels like I should be a lot further ahead. HHhhmmmmm......oh well.

Anyway, I figured it out............starting with $500 and making just 2% profit per trading day, it would take:

38 trading days to crack $1,000
73 trading days to crack $2,000
154 trading days to crack $10,000
189 trading days to crack $20,000
235 trading days to crack $50,000

At any rate, I am finding that small gains made consistently is indeed a very good strategy, albeit not very exciting, and I plan to continue this strategy till 2% equates to 4 or 5 hundred dollars each day (wish me luck!). At that point, I can live off 1/2 that and still be doing pretty good.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

It's good, very good, but at this stage try not to concentrate on the money side, except the preservation of capital side of things.

Don't think about the money you might make in 5 months or 5 years.
Well have a little fantasy about it for 5 minutes, but then put it aside and just concentrate on the trading.

 

[RockyRacoon]

Thanks, good advice.

Actually, I usually only really focus on loss - but generally only when the trade is going against me.

I use another screen that I watch for my trades and only give cursory glances to the screen I post here.....that is my account and all but I like monitoring Metatrader for my charting and I will often enter and/or exit without ever looking at my account screen until I am out of the trade lol.

Thanks again!

 

[RockyRacoon]

Made just over 1%, glad to be out and going back to bed. I start work earlier this week and can still grab another hour of sleep.

 

[RockyRacoon]

Got home, saw a trade and took the short at the 1.300 area - - -finished the day just shy of 2% profit - I don't plan to trade any more tonight, but who knows? lol

At one time I was up about $25 on the day but that last pop took out my stop while I was trying to "let my winner run".......when will I ever learn lol.