81supertrader
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Why you do not open account live then? I have real money there for my trading markets.
BetaExoticBets
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NotQuiteRandom
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Wow! This is impressive. I didn't realise they were live now.
Seems like they only have FX bets and I do a fair bit in the indices as well so I called and asked about that and they said they would add indices, stocks, commodities and rates over the next few weeks.
I have set up the same strategy that I used when beta and am now sitting back to watch it come in...
These guys are now by far the best OTC financial bookies!
Seems like they only have FX bets and I do a fair bit in the indices as well so I called and asked about that and they said they would add indices, stocks, commodities and rates over the next few weeks.
I have set up the same strategy that I used when beta and am now sitting back to watch it come in...
These guys are now by far the best OTC financial bookies!
B
bunny6128
so has anyone made a decent bet yet, is it manual fill or what?
i will delay using them for a couple weeks, as they will have very few customers and if i go there and start winning it will draw too much attention and i will be banned. Terrible pricing also, huge 16+ % overround, nearly unusable, but not quite..
i will delay using them for a couple weeks, as they will have very few customers and if i go there and start winning it will draw too much attention and i will be banned. Terrible pricing also, huge 16+ % overround, nearly unusable, but not quite..
NotQuiteRandom
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I think they are using a dynamic pricing model as I just did a One Touch / No touch combo with a 1.4% over round. So far so good, my strategy that I developed for the site over the long beta period has come in on 9 of my 14 bets of equal size in the last 2 hours.
I am devoting full time to this site for now as the pricing is a lot better than BB and the range of bets is so vast. Looking forward to getting the stocks back on there though.
GBP/USD bets seem to be priced better than EUR/USD for Time Switch bets but none of it is bad. I've been doing binarys exclusively for the past couple of months after scaling back my other activity and I'm moving my business from BB to here for all OTC stuff. Will continue to make a market on Intrade though as I still think it offers me 'the best of it' to use a poker term.
NQR
I am devoting full time to this site for now as the pricing is a lot better than BB and the range of bets is so vast. Looking forward to getting the stocks back on there though.
GBP/USD bets seem to be priced better than EUR/USD for Time Switch bets but none of it is bad. I've been doing binarys exclusively for the past couple of months after scaling back my other activity and I'm moving my business from BB to here for all OTC stuff. Will continue to make a market on Intrade though as I still think it offers me 'the best of it' to use a poker term.
NQR
81supertrader
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Lots bets of mine making money well. Real time value is profit with 3day expiry.
B
bunny6128
well although it's possible for them to be related, one touch and no touch are 2 seperate markets so you would expect the overround to vary, following your comment i thought i would have a look at the differences, first bet priced up 85.x / 50.x ! usd/chf 3day. Just checked again with eur/usd because it seemed a bit of a silly overround, got 72.x /62.x for a 5 day, what time period were you using to get 1.4%?
good to hear that you are winning, please tell us if you get any resistance from the company Thanks.
very good supertrader! please also post when/if you get resistance thanks
good to hear that you are winning, please tell us if you get any resistance from the company Thanks.
very good supertrader! please also post when/if you get resistance thanks
NotQuiteRandom
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Will do, one must be mindful that what is good today may not be tomorrow but the company seem first rate so far. I got given 250 quid in my account for being one of their first 25 clients as well as a welcome phone call. The bets have gone through with great speed. I time every one and monitor for slippage. Slowest so far was 4 seconds and they only give the price you see rather than 'their market' which can change after hitting 'trade'.
I had a few with marked to market value greater than purchase price by the time they had gone through and there was no problem there either, seems very liberal to me. The more vendors the better I say, keeps them on their toes. No doubt this will make the others improve as the competition heats up.
I had a few with marked to market value greater than purchase price by the time they had gone through and there was no problem there either, seems very liberal to me. The more vendors the better I say, keeps them on their toes. No doubt this will make the others improve as the competition heats up.
Well they are clearly having problems, just offereing 12pm, daily, 5mins and hourly bets, they have closed all other FTSE bets from Friday and are still taking 20secs+ to fill. If others get it faster then they are running manual checks on some traders. Just another bin firm.
NotQuiteRandom
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Huh? They have the full range of FX bets still, just not the other stuff. In these markets my trading is going nuts, I've done 42 bets through them today. I've asked about an API to automate it and they said one is coming soon.
I checked with their helpdesk, fills take a fixed amount of time (3 seconds) - any addition to that is simply bandwidth issues. Max I've seen so far is 4.
I checked with their helpdesk, fills take a fixed amount of time (3 seconds) - any addition to that is simply bandwidth issues. Max I've seen so far is 4.
Thanks
I don't do FX. They clearing got me on so manual intervention. My bandwidth and ping is fine. They did tell me a few weeks ago that they manual check some bets for arbs, but implied that was Touch/tunnel bets. The last bet I attempted was 20 secs and a longshot. Perhaps I'll give them a call
I don't do FX. They clearing got me on so manual intervention. My bandwidth and ping is fine. They did tell me a few weeks ago that they manual check some bets for arbs, but implied that was Touch/tunnel bets. The last bet I attempted was 20 secs and a longshot. Perhaps I'll give them a call
81supertrader
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I think you are confusing with the choiceodds, not see any 5mins offers on bets for traders.
Still real time value win profit.
NotQuiteRandom
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Ok, I am bet out for the day. that's 50 bets each at 15 minute expiry on 4 fx crosses over 5 hours with multiple overlaps. This is certainly the 'road test'.
My conclusion is that the pricing improves OTM in most instances and that they are - as one would expect - using pure risk neutral pricing.
Simple conclusion: If you can call the direction of the market with any consistency, you can win money from BetsForTraders on an ongoing basis.
I see no issue with taking one side when it is the side I want to take. When I want to sell premium I do so on Intrade or in the markets, this is a great tool for hedging certain linear betting positions and for very short term speculation. As I said though, I would like to see an API so I can automate this, sitting here to execute manually is a pain.
Today's 1k trial has left me with:
bets: 50
won: 29
lost: 21
average win: 208
average loss: 146
net average p&l per bet: 59.32
Total p&l for day: 2966
I made slightly more on binary bet one day last week but average far less for similar risk and this is more exciting than automated liquidity provision which ticks along at a profit but is like watching paint dry. I am a speculator at heart. ;-)
My conclusion is that the pricing improves OTM in most instances and that they are - as one would expect - using pure risk neutral pricing.
Simple conclusion: If you can call the direction of the market with any consistency, you can win money from BetsForTraders on an ongoing basis.
I see no issue with taking one side when it is the side I want to take. When I want to sell premium I do so on Intrade or in the markets, this is a great tool for hedging certain linear betting positions and for very short term speculation. As I said though, I would like to see an API so I can automate this, sitting here to execute manually is a pain.
Today's 1k trial has left me with:
bets: 50
won: 29
lost: 21
average win: 208
average loss: 146
net average p&l per bet: 59.32
Total p&l for day: 2966
I made slightly more on binary bet one day last week but average far less for similar risk and this is more exciting than automated liquidity provision which ticks along at a profit but is like watching paint dry. I am a speculator at heart. ;-)
Just out of intertest how and why are you hedging your linear (I assume futures or forwards) with a non-linear (dis-continuous; if binary) structure?
If you call the market direction consistently you will make money from any company!!!
When you say the pricing improves OTM what exactly do yuo mean? You are getting a better offer? please be more specific.
NotQuiteRandom
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Hi Robertral,
In answer to your questions:
Q1) Just out of intertest how and why are you hedging your linear (I assume futures or forwards) with a non-linear (dis-continuous; if binary) structure?
A1) On certain linear positions in the FX market that I take for the longer term (which for me is up to 2 weeks) I put my stop quite far away to allow for a margin of error, usually about 2 stdev taking the ATM implied vol as my proxy for sigma. As my average winning (linear) trade is several hundred points) and I don't close until either the stop is hit or my price target is struck I am happy to pay for a bit of insurance. On this basis I place a binary struck at my stop with 2 delta for every one unit of the FX position - this of course is equivalent to a one touch but most financial bookies offer closer to FV on binarys than touches so I prefer this method.
The scenarios that follow are either: i) I hit my target, win and close. ii) I hit my stop, close for a loss and sell back my binary which covers the loss. iii) I am in 'no mans land' having neither won nor lost and my binary expires, so I have to place another one. Scenario 3 irks me the most but the cost of the binary is minimal that far OTM relative to my expected return given my accuracy rate of hitting my targets.
Q2) If you call the market direction consistently you will make money from any company!!!
A2) I'm not sure I understand the question or if it is one. Is it in fact a statement? I assume it to be a truism - rather like night following day ;-)
Q3) When you say the pricing improves OTM what exactly do yuo mean? You are getting a better offer? please be more specific.
A3) Yes, the offers seem to improve very marginally further OTM relative to FV. We are not talking a lot but If you run them through an MC or for the binarys simply $ * N(d) you will note this to be the case assuming market IVs.
Hope this helps.
NQR
In answer to your questions:
Q1) Just out of intertest how and why are you hedging your linear (I assume futures or forwards) with a non-linear (dis-continuous; if binary) structure?
A1) On certain linear positions in the FX market that I take for the longer term (which for me is up to 2 weeks) I put my stop quite far away to allow for a margin of error, usually about 2 stdev taking the ATM implied vol as my proxy for sigma. As my average winning (linear) trade is several hundred points) and I don't close until either the stop is hit or my price target is struck I am happy to pay for a bit of insurance. On this basis I place a binary struck at my stop with 2 delta for every one unit of the FX position - this of course is equivalent to a one touch but most financial bookies offer closer to FV on binarys than touches so I prefer this method.
The scenarios that follow are either: i) I hit my target, win and close. ii) I hit my stop, close for a loss and sell back my binary which covers the loss. iii) I am in 'no mans land' having neither won nor lost and my binary expires, so I have to place another one. Scenario 3 irks me the most but the cost of the binary is minimal that far OTM relative to my expected return given my accuracy rate of hitting my targets.
Q2) If you call the market direction consistently you will make money from any company!!!
A2) I'm not sure I understand the question or if it is one. Is it in fact a statement? I assume it to be a truism - rather like night following day ;-)
Q3) When you say the pricing improves OTM what exactly do yuo mean? You are getting a better offer? please be more specific.
A3) Yes, the offers seem to improve very marginally further OTM relative to FV. We are not talking a lot but If you run them through an MC or for the binarys simply $ * N(d) you will note this to be the case assuming market IVs.
Hope this helps.
NQR
NotQuiteRandom
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P.S - the binary-at-the-stop strategy is obvioualy not my own idea. there are several articles about optimising it if you Google.
B
bunny6128
Any update? are there only 2 people betting on this site?
seems easy to exploit the short term bets, i can see the min duration being extended at some point. I know you can do 5min on other sites but that cannot be exploited in the same way as these bets where you can fine tune the duration.
seems easy to exploit the short term bets, i can see the min duration being extended at some point. I know you can do 5min on other sites but that cannot be exploited in the same way as these bets where you can fine tune the duration.
NotQuiteRandom
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My days for the last 3 still consist of flicking between BetsForTraders.com, T2W and a few newspapers. They say that they hedge off their risk and I sure hope so as I am now up 12 thousand quid. I withdrew half of it this morning and I'm off to trade from OZ for a month.
I am maintaining my other trading systems but this one is just going like the clappers. I read somewhere that the firms Directors are a bunch of former Hedge Fund guys - I guess they know their stuff.
Anyone else here active at BFT?
NQR
I am maintaining my other trading systems but this one is just going like the clappers. I read somewhere that the firms Directors are a bunch of former Hedge Fund guys - I guess they know their stuff.
Anyone else here active at BFT?
NQR
