BBmac's occassional thread

[bbmac]

If you were trying to trade 1hr hidden div at potential rbs/supp I certainly wouldn't time entry on 1min...I'd want to see a 15min trigger/...possibly a 3min if the set-up was great on that t/f...if there had have been a great 3min reversal set-up with some kind of 15min supporting set-up, for me the as yet unvvalidated 1hr hidden div set-up (by a price action candle/candle combo trigger) would have been a 'supporting factor' only to the 3/15min set-ups, not the reason for entry.

Ie 1min is too far away from 1hr to time a 1hr entry, I prefer going up/down t/f's by factors of 4-5

G/L

i think you have taken my 61&50 fibs as 6100 entry

i meant 61.8 fib and a 50 fib there in that zone...

below is the point where i entered..
i didn't catch a chance to get to break even...

View attachment 105358

 

[bbmac]

Retail demand

Mni talking of retail demand in the 6005-5985 area Lol !

 

[MagicJohnson10]

thanks... back to the drawing board...

books are noted...

 

[bbmac]

Context and patience

thanks... back to the drawing board...

books are noted...

I'm not saying you did on that occassion but you do get to a stage with practice of implimenting any trading edge when you begin to trade the edge in the context of overall pervailing price action, not just because a set-up is there (there is a big difference)...I have factored this into my own trading edge in as much as is possible in the way of rules that must be satisfied when a set-up (s) develops.... For eg I had a 1min Reversal set-up @ 0931 on that little pullback from 6016 but it didn't fulfill my rules and in the context of the strong down move the risk was therefore too great...I thus awaited the pullback to see if I could again get 'with trend' and sure enough patience paid off with the 0945 1min hidden divergence based set-up.

On your set-up we were discussing earlier the only thing I see from your screenshot is osma divergence on that 1min trigger-this for me doesn't constitute a set-up.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Friday's Lo re-tested

Price is testing the previous 1hr/4hr swing lo zone around Friday's Lo...

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Demand around Friday's Lo

So some demand in the area around Friday Lo...but to what extent ? Good enough 1min trigger set-up to get long from there...note how the osma div was measured from below to above it's zero axis..I love this type of regular divergence.

Gotta assume each counter trend move is a pullback until PA on successively higher t/f's begins to say otherwise...I'm an all in all out type of trader so tend to take all off the table...as I have done with this pullback/reversal just now as price reached my minimum target for it.

How strong are the bears now ? Can they get this thing through Friday's Low ?? Price is currently @ 162% of the 20day average pip range now - I'm not sure I would be looking for much more downside...unless I got an absolutely perfect set-up.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

previous 1hr/4hr/daily swing lo

Current daily Lo is of course in a previous 1hr/4hr and daily swing lo (not just a previous 1hr/4hr) and price retested the 61.8% of the 5748-6343 move in that zone at the current lo.

Mni now talking about 5965/50 holding demand and below that 5925/20 being the 1.618% ext of 6028-6199 ...fwiw.

G/L

 

[MagicJohnson10]

were you tempted by the m1 rev/ m5 rent setup back short?

 

[bbmac]

Not perfect so rejected

The 1115 5min hidden div based set-up shown below was not perfect...it came @ the base of the previous 1hr/4hr swing lo zone (non-immed) and 23.6% of the 6199-current daily lo move as potential sbr/res...but it set-up @ a HH on the t/f it developed on - 5min /potential LH on 30min...not optimum therefore for me....whether it sees a with 30min (+) downtrend follow thru to a new Lo or not....I rejected the set-up.

Happy with my lot today....further 'non perfect set-ups are therefore not entertained.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

reply

were you tempted by the m1 rev/ m5 rent setup back short?

No for reasons given in post above

 

[MagicJohnson10]

the perfect setup would have fallen at a LH/LH ...m5/m30?

thank you for your help on my setup today...very much appreciate it...

do you see the unfolding disaster in japan weighing on cable in any way?
it's certainly shaking the stock markets around...
the news items are staggering...

 

[bbmac]

sharp move down counter to expectations ?

The move down to re-test Friday's low from yesterday's 6199 Hi seems to have caught a lot off guard and has blown away some long stops...I must admit the expectation I had late last evening was of a move higher given Friday and Monday's daily candles...but on opening charts this morning this was obviously in severe doubt after the sell-off already well underway before my session started.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Yes for a re-entry to an opa downtrend on next higher t/f (+) the perfect position would be LH/LH but H/LH tolerated also.

That's a fundie question...I'll leave it to others smarter than me, save to say it probably will have an effect on related markets and a knowck on effect on others at some point... Lol ! I just keep it simple and trade what I see...whatever that is and whatever caused it..that's the beauty of tech trading we don't have to figure it out....and actually taking a fundamental view can sometimes interfere with taking a contrary tech set-up if you are a tech trader. My trading decisions are all technically based and only the intraday data releases (which add to and are to some extnet a measure of the prevailing fundie/global macro environemnt) are factored into my tech trading decisions , ie trading the pa triggers/set-ups that may result from the knee-jerk market reaction to them, but even these are technically based and timed.

Some consolidation off the lows on lower t/f's now.

G/L

the perfect setup would have fallen at a LH/LH ...m5/m30?

thank you for your help on my setup today...very much appreciate it...

do you see the unfolding disaster in japan weighing on cable in any way?
it's certainly shaking the stock markets around...
the news items are staggering...

 

[bbmac]

Battle of the 61.8% fibs

Just came back to desk after a 2.5hr break (doing a bit more each day yesterday and today as will be away from home for a week or so from early thursday a.m) Battle of the 61.8% fibs ie yesterday's hi was at or around 61.8% 6343-5975 and today's current lo is a retest of the 61.8% 5748-6343.

Cable has seen an 83pip pullback off the current daily lo so far to the previous 1hr swing lo zone with 38.2% of the 6199-5978 (today's current lo) move.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Fomc later

Fed Funds rate and Fomc statemnet later (6.15pm Uk as U.s on dst now) might be interesting ??

 

[bbmac]

Re: Demand around Friday's Lo

.....Price is currently @ 162% of the 20day average pip range now - I'm not sure I would be looking for much more downside...

Price is up +120pips off the current daily lo and fomc/fed rate to come @ 1815pm gmt.

 

[bbmac]

Current near-term 1hr view

Price challenging the 76.4% 6137-5978 (current daily lo) @ bottom of a previous 1hr sw lo zone...this is what I am see-ing on 1hr near-term currently 15mins out from Fed/Fomc.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

interesting

Interesting viewpoints in this forexcrunch.com article.

G/L

http://www.forexcrunch.com/forex-ma...tive-strategist-david-rodriguez-from-dailyfx/

 

[bbmac]

The Key is planning

Most of my trading session is spent as follows

a. ascertaining and keeping up to speed with the opa (overall price action conditions) on the intermediate (middle) t/f and trend (longest) t/f and whether they are contra or co-existant with each other.

b. ascertaining whether any classic or general opa trend that exists on the intermediate and trend t/f's are contra or co-existant opa conditions on longer t/f's and if they are with - how many t/f's are in the same classic or general trend. This is important for 2 reasons;

i. So I can identify potential sbr or rbs factors on both the intermediate and trend t/f's in case of a pullback that develops a trigger t/f (shortest) re-entry set-up @ an intermediate t/f potential sbr/rbs, -or- a deeper pullback and an intermediate t/f re-entry set-up (possibly timed as a trigger t/f reversal set-up) @ a trend t/f potential sbr/rbs.

-and-

ii. Because I then know (per the rules associated with my trading edge) what repeating set-up combo's must develop and @ what repeating combo's of potential supp/res factors in order for me to trade against the Trend with a hi-probability.

c. Keeping up to speed with the potential supp/res factors above and below the prevailing price on the trend (+) t/f are where the repeating combo's of such are...-and- similarly looking for the potential sbr/rbs zones on the intermediate t/f in the event of an opa trend on there (+)

a,b, and c, is most of my time at the trading desk and in any 4-5hr trading session I average 3 trades. I reject more set-ups than I trade. Preparation is key - planning the trade then trading the plan, (a borrowed adage but so true.) Knowing in advance where you will trade if a set-up develops and staying relaxed about the intervening price action.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Eg

Great set-up in 3min t/f this a.m...price pulls back from 6120-6077, the Daily Pivot and a previous 15min (and 1hr) swing hi zone..where the 3min develops a hidden divergence based Re-entry (to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) set-up with a great PB trigger on close of it's 0800 candle.

G/L