BBmac's occassional thread

[bbmac]

Downside analysis below current price

Friday's/Weekly lo @ 6006 came as price had travelled 96% of it's 20day average pip range that day and 127% of the 20week average pip range. Weekly candle closed as an inverted hammer bearish engulfing, and from Wednesday's daily bearish thrust engulfing candle there followed 2 x v bearish candles on that same daily t/f on Thursday and Friday respectively. Price closed on the week below the Monthly Pivot (6158 area)and breeched the nearest daily ascending trend line

OPA trend (overall price action-peak/valley analysis) remains down on 1hr/4hr and although looking bearish atm daily t/f remains in a general uptrend.

Looking @ & Near-term below that current Lo:

6014-06 Previous 1hr swing lo zone

5997-78 3 fib cluster
5990-61 Previous 1hr x4 / 4hr x 3 / Daily x 2 swing lo zone

5902-5199 50% 5405-6401 & 76.4% 5745-6401 respectively

5890 23.6% 4225-6401

5874 50% 5343-6401

5851 Monthly S2 Pivot area
5846 50% 5290-6401
5840-19 Previous 4hr/Daily swing lo zone

5784 61.8% 5405-6401

5765-48 Previous 4hr/Daily swing lo zone, 5748 being 61.8% 5343-6401
5743 Monthly S3 pivot area

5717 61.8% 5290-6401

NB: There is a daily ascending trend line that on Monday will come through around 5850-60 and below that a Weekly ascending trend line that will come though around 5800-10.

I will add in the Weekly Pivots next week. (I count calculated pivots on Daily + t/f's as 'minor' potential supp/res factors only.)

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Daily

I'm wondering how bearish things will get for this pairing if the general uptrend is broken and the general upwards channel (general direction of travel) is breeched convincingly. I guess the nearest substantial potential supprt to the downside is the previous swing lo zone shown in purple. 100sma remains above 200sma on this t/f.

G/L

 

[counter_violent]

Good stuff as always Stewart.

I suppose on the fundamental side of things GBP Strength v Weakness current tussle will all be centered around Two main issues. Higher inflation (potential rate rises) v exposure to other countries debt problems (portugal) markets hate uncertainty which probably explains the increased volatility as noted already.

 

[bbmac]

Hi mate

I think that very well sums up the prevailing fundamental situation. I Would add to the domestic 'higher inflation' side of things whether this and the impact of the govt spending cuts will impact on gdp growth creating the perfect storm of low/negative growth/hi inflation ? I think this govt's prime objective is gettin g the defecit under control and only negative growth figures and/or runaway inflation will cause it to alter from that track?

Thanks again for the input.

Good stuff as always Stewart.

I suppose on the fundamental side of things GBP Strength v Weakness current tussle will all be centered around Two main issues. Higher inflation (potential rate rises) v exposure to other countries debt problems (portugal) markets hate uncertainty which probably explains the increased volatility as noted already.

 

[bbmac]

Which need (s) are you satisfying/trying to satisfy

Maslows Hieracrchy of needs has been an accepted psychological measure/tool foir may years. Maslow argues that beyond food, clothing, shelter etc humand have greater needs which they also aim to saitisfy when those more basic needs have been. He added a further level of Self Transendence some years after the original 1945 work but looking at the original triangle I wonder how many needs being a trader satisfies for people?

It would seem tha the top 2 levels (needs) are sometimes aimed for before the more basic bottom 2 levels. Ie what need are you trying to satisfy from your trading ? I wonder whether starting with the most basic needs should be borne in mind at all times, ie sometimes the need to be right/creative seems to overtake this ?

(Incidentally some psychologists reject entirely that needs are hierarchial in human beings arguing that they are more random.)

 

[bbmac]

Is your sacrifice/risk worth the reward ?

We all sacrifice a lot in our desire to get to where we want to get to in our trading careers. Whether it be the opportunity cost of what else you could be doing, or just the sheer man hours and time at the screens, and very often for no reward.


One day an american tourist holidaying on a caribbean island comes across a young fisherman with a line dangled in the water..he asks what what he is fishing for and receives the reply ...'just some mackeral to feed my family.' How much do you need?' he asks, 'just the 2' came the reply. His interest piqued he enquires further 'How long does it take you to catch 2 fish?' he asks, 'About 2hrs' the fisherman responds, but sometimes more if we need other food that we exchange it for with our friends/neighbours.

'And what do you do after that?' he wonders

...The fisherman looks up after a thinking a bit and replies

' Well I go and spend time with my family, we eat and talk, play in the fields under the sun, take long walks on the beach, and then we head to the village and meet with our friends and take some fish and some bread that my wife has baked, and we sit and talk and laugh and dance with each other, enjoyiong the fruits of each other's labours from the sea and the land into the late hours under the moonlight.'

The American then asks the fisherman if he has considered working say 8hrs a day, catching more fish and selling the surplus that he doesn't need to whch the fisherman asks

'and what will that do for me '

Well says the american, with the profit from the sale you could then eventiually buy a boat and a net and catch even more fish to sell'

'and how long will that take' says the fisherman,

5 years or so says the american but with the profits you make from the boat you could buy another boat and then another until you had a fleet of fishing boats so you could make even more profit...

'and how long will that take' says the fisherman,

10-15 years answers the american, and adds 'Then with the profits from the fishing boat fleet you could open your own canning and distribution centre and become the biggest exporter of fish on this island in the whole caribbean.'

'and how long will that take' says the fisherman


'Well say another 10 years says the american but you'll have to work hard and long snad there will be many headaches and hurdles along the way but I reckon you have a good chance of suceeding here as there is little competition.'

'and so after 25-30 years what will all that do for me' enquires the fisherman.

To which the american replies:

'..Well then you could sell up and retire, move to a small island, spend time with your family, eat and talk, play in the fields under the sun, take long walks on the beach, and then head down to the village and meet with your friends , and sit and talk and laugh and dance with each other into the late hours under the moonlight.'

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Analysis predictive ?

I was having a conversation late last week with another trader who is convinced in the predictive powers of his analysis..he is currently oin a good winning run overall and is leveraging up aggressively..Yes I know the end of that story has probably already been written - well that's my prediction anyway Lol !

Of course it isn't my prediction (and even the stand out irony in my grammer was lost on him) but that is the greater probability whether that greater probability plays out or not.

Speaking of probability, that's all we've got really, ie based on historical precedent, what is the probability of a successful outcome, and from which we can organise our risk and reward parametres.

No one knows what will happen next (how can we in the absence of being privy to all the trading plans of all market participants) so all we can doi is play the percentages and optimise our money managemnet accordingly.

I am always surprised how many times I return to this underlying truth and remind myself of it lest the 'Joe Trader' syndrome kicks in my own trading (ie thinking I can 'predict' every twist and turn...but this is as nothing when I still hear many others who have not accepted this underlying truth.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Ring any bells ?

' I think I've finally found the answer - but I've forgotten what the question was.'

 

[bbmac]

There are clearly members on this forum with an inexplicable vendetta against me/my postings. I won't therefore contribute further to this thread . I have asked the mods to close the thread.

Continued G/L to all those who may have gained something from it.