BBmac's occassional thread

[bbmac]

Big move down to 6030 zone

...... 6030 - is this the bears' target? Looking bearish atm.

Wow That turned out to be an under statement as price indeed tests the previous 1hr/4hr/daily swing lo zone leading down to 6030 Lo, confluence with Daily S3 pivot, with downside breaks of various ascending trend lines on 4hr/daily...a move of 140% today of the instrument's 2day average pip range and now @ 96% this week so far of the average 20week pip range. Those post Boe/Mpc decision bears must have taken heart !?

Serendipity - on coming back to desk just in time to trade the redidual demand in that aforementioned zone leading down to the 6030 Lo.

4hr shows the potential support zone here:

and the 1min regular bullish divergence based trigger set-up was here

 

[bbmac]

Looking ahead to Friday

Uk PPI and U.s Retail Sales the big event risks for tomorrow (Friday,) with Merv the Swerv scheduled to speak at 2045pm.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

4hr

Price breaks below yesterday's lo after the pullback to 6077 from the 6038 Lo....arriving at the next nearest previous swing lo zone on 4hr below that where some demand is being seen...Below here and a previous 4hr/daily swing lo zone going down to the 5960 swing lo on those t/f's..that lo just about around the 38.2% of 5343-6343, and above that @ 5975 the 61.8% of the 5748- 6343 swing up.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Daily

This is what I am see-ing currently on the daily t/f.

Not shown on here are the unbreeched fibs from the weekly swing 4225-6343 and the unbreeched fibs of the 4hr swings 5748 and 5818 - same 6343 hi.

5850/44 is a 2 fib cluster ( I think you need minimum 3 for a 'cluster'?') but anyways, it's 23.6% 4225-6343 with 50% 5343-6343 respectively. Above that and similarly 5942 is 76.4% 5858-6343 with 38.2% 5290-6343.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Pullback or more ?

With price at 80% of it's 20 day average pip range and @ 116% of the average weekly pip range, price tested a little deeper into that previous daily swing lo zone right at the 61.8% of the 5748-6343 4hr/daily swing (shown on 4hr pic in post above)...decent enough regular bullish divergence set-ups existsed 1min upwards.. I awaited the 3min trigger shown below...nice 3 x hammers at the trigger area, entry on close of the 3rd one...and PA showed there had been recent buyers in that area too...note the double divergence in the top oscillator...

G/L

 

[bbmac]

pullback from 5975-61046

Just came back to desk to see what I missed after own session finished and pullback from 5975 found a current Pullback Hi (6046) at the previous 1hr swing lo zone (previous support = potential resistance) shown below;

I mentioned in post above that there were regular bullish divergence set-ups supporting a long trade from there on 1min +, the pic below shows the 1hr.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Friday close

Friday closes as a Bullish Hammer / PB...what price a move higher at some point ? I suppose this has to be countered by the Bearish engulfing close on the weekly ?

 

[bbmac]

Confluence

Confluence can be such a powerful phenomenon, the simultaneous coming together/combination of seperate factors occurs with positive or negative effects in all aspecst of life. Take gravity and hard objects, seperately they are benign but bring them together and their exists great potential for negative effects. (Think of jumping off a cliff, gravity alone causing you to fall (not go up) is in itself benign, - the trouble begins when you come into contact with the ground (The hard object.)

Confluence in trading too can be powerful., and the confluence of repeating factors more so.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

upside/downside fibs

Just looking at the near-term fib retracements below Friday's low and above Friday's Hi.

Above:

Friday's Hi @ 50% 6213-5975

6109-15 a 3 fib cluster, 50%'s of 6213 and 6242 and 38.2% of 6341 all to 5975.
6139-44 a 2 fib cluster, 61.8% 6242 and 76.4% 6213 to same 5975
6159 50% 6341- same 5975

Below:

Friday's Lo @ 61.8% 5748-6343

5942 a 2 fib cluster, 76.4% 5818, 38.2% 5290 both to 6343
5874 50% 5405- same 6343
5850-44 a 2 fib cluster, 23.6% 4225, with 50% 5343 both to same 6343
5820 50% 5290-6343

Near-term 1hr current screenshot is below:

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Trade what you see-not what you think

Trade what you see - not what you think.

This is an important trueism. You don't have to go much further than this site to see how traders get wedded to an idea / analysis of where the market 'should' go and their need to be right is greater than their need to make money as they hand on to a losing position convinced that the market will eventually share their own analysis and react accordingly.

Even in the economic news/data releases, we see it, - the market moves contrary to that expected for the number (s) released, leaving traders bemused that the market did not share their own analysis. And this trieism leads to another

The Market is always right​

Even as a tech trader, it can be hard to look at a chart (s) and not form an opinion about where price will likely go next...but there's the thing 'likely' ie we can all guauge the greater probability but that does not mean it will play out. Being wedded to a pre formed analysis/idea about what the market 'should' do can prevent us from joining in with what the market 'is' doing.

Knowing the greater probability is one thing, being wedded to an idea/analysis is another.

Our analysis beit technical, fundamental or otherwise can only tell us (on occassions - not everytime,) what the greater probability is, not what the market will definately do / should do.

Stay open minded and follow the advice; 'Trade what you see-not what you think.'

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Price moves higher

Friday closes as a Bullish Hammer / PB...what price a move higher at some point ? I suppose this has to be countered by the Bearish engulfing close on the weekly ?

This was always the higher probability given Friday's close...a new high in the early asian session followed by the ubiquitous pullback, to the 50% of the then Friday Lo-Current Hi before the bulls came in again and bought, resulting in a new current daily Hi @ 6122.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Near-term upside hurdles

1hr chart below.

Move up has breeched the first 3 fib cluster (detailed in post # 49) to the upside, and the descending 1hr/4hr trend line too...talk in other forums of the inverted H&S on 1hr. This previous 1hr/4hr swing lo zone remains the nearest upside obstacle extending to the 76.4% of the 6213-5975 swing @ 6144 area, Weekly Pivot is below @ 6132 area. A break above that previous 1hr/4hr swing lo zone and Thursday's pullback Hi (6196) comes into view and (not shown on 1hr screenshot below) at the base of this previous 1hr swing hi zone is the 76.4% of the 6242-5975 swing @ 6178 which is above the Monthly Pivot @ 6167 area and the 50% of the main 6343-5975 swing @ 6159.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

5min rangy off the current hi now

All a bit rangy/consolidatory on the 5min and below since and off the current daily hi 6122...favoured play may be a range thrust b/o and/or 1st b/o and pullback for the 2nd b/o ??

Pairing probably remains vulnerable to downside pressure but upside is favoured at this point in time, at least intraday ?

Will see what develops

G/L

 

[bbmac]

1hr inverted H&S

There are a few mentions of this elsewhere...some traders put a lot of faith in these type of repeating price patterns...I don't play them personally but when I have asked a couple this morning their stop placement seems wrong to me...surely it should be under the right inverted shoulder ? or at the very least under the 50% fib of the move up from the right shoulder to today's current Hi ??

Of course they are probably overleveraged on the trade and can't afford a stop in the right place ?? The irony is that this could cost them an otherwise good trade ??

 

[bbmac]

demand at channel bottom

1335pm gmt candle closed as a master bullish thrust engulfing, engulfing last 5 candle bodiess on that t/f...off a previous 5min swing lo/previous 1hr swing lo...clearly some demand at / toward 5min congestion channel bottom ...will we see an upside b/o now ?

G/L

 

[bbmac]

upside b/o

Nice B/O of the previous daily hi and price now challenging top of that previous 1hr/4hr swing lo zone (previous support) confluence with the 6139-44 '2 fib cluster' detailed earlier in post #49.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

clues

All the clues were there as to the greater probability, and it played out as of course the greater probability does more often than it does not...just gotta watch for the clues and go with the greater probability...it's all we've got.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

not reading price

Someone elsewhere not understanding the message price was givinng as to it's most probable near-term direction.

 

[bbmac]

5min 2nd B/O ?

..favoured play may be a range thrust b/o and/or 1st b/o and pullback for the 2nd b/o ??...

So 5min congestion channel 1st b/o then a pullback and potential 2nd b/o....
I had a nice regular divergence based set-up to short the pullback but no set-up to go long again from channel top = potential rbs...so am flat again....

Will hang around till 3pm see if get a set-up deeper in channel if price does re-test.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Pullback/Reversal trigger set-up here

1min shown below from today's current hi

G/L