Barclay opportunity?
- Thread starter Pound foolish
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172p
at the moment the ftse 100 is a minefield. im staying away in general. got a couple of positions in ftse 250, but i remain bullish on small oil and miners in aim. (over 50 mil cap). potential rewards vs risk based on my fundemental interpretation remains strong (famous last words)
So you are long inflationary (oil/miners) and therefore short sectors inversely correlated..good luck. Be aware oil and miners got kicked back from a so called breakout and bear in mind the bad probability play in a downtrend is the so called breakout to a new high.
Barc at the moment are primary trend down ...intemediate trend sideways and near trend up ,but extended as at last week...but that means from my viewpoint we are range neutral and that's what i am playing right now...note also that it would not take much to bring that intermediary trend from sideways to up.Indeed all it would take is enough people getting short at 200p and under and not taking profits nimbly. Run their stops and you'll have a primary trend reversal.
By the way it's not a coincidence that this has been happening not only at the end of the month ,but also at the end of the qtr...profits in the bank for oil ,but I could be wrong of course.
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i dont question the rational for a minute, but in these volatile markets, do you not take into consideration that the ftse is trading down, and this current up lift in price is nothing more than a bear rally? an example which makes no sense for me is....i bought my fist lot of kaz shares for £14 (Mug i know)...but then they toppled to 175p. At this point i started buying up again after i saw there was some support at this level even if that support was purely what was held by major holders... now a couple of days ago the annoucement claim profits have halved vs last year. so why is the price still under 700?, when they still remain half the business they were. afterall if everyone is closing down all these mines supply and demand will once again clash, if what they are saying is true about infrastructure stimilus in japan and china?
It's a rally ,I'm not thinking bear or bull. I am though looking at sectors and some at this point should be benefitting more than others and they can't all benefit equally unless this turns into a transparently broad market rally. OIL and Miners have done the best since last October ,BUT if this is still a downtrend I'd expect them to get sold off at least due to profit taking rather than succeed in making new highs. However ,if the inflationary sectors did get sold back down then rotation should go to the sectors that benefit from that as oil.miners etc suck money from consumption elsewhere.
my view is fundementally the build of globalisation is very much in play. infact globilasation it will continue to play a major part in my view in the cycles we will bear witness to...this however re-alignment of power or money is a question of control, afterall debt is control...the fed teaches us that. Just think in such a short number of years we refer to the g20 as opposed to the g7.
I am sadly not as optimistic about the uk ever getting back to where it was, i believe it played its role in a greater show, and for all intense purposes it played it well. Anyway enough of that.....i remain bullish on these sectors because both sectors remain key in emerging nations. I have no interests in any company which primarily relies on the uk for trade therfore the shorter to medium measure of inflation remains valid yet irrelavent to my play. Until environmentally friendly power is created black gold is king...and even when we have this green power, third worlds and emerging economies will still be chasing the black gold, as the infrastructure costs of rebuilding remain high.
the rise and fall of the commodity prices is hyper inflated and deflated at both extremes for reasons beyond the obvious supply and demand - however what remains consistent is both are raw materials....and both will be required in the medium future.
I am sadly not as optimistic about the uk ever getting back to where it was, i believe it played its role in a greater show, and for all intense purposes it played it well. Anyway enough of that.....i remain bullish on these sectors because both sectors remain key in emerging nations. I have no interests in any company which primarily relies on the uk for trade therfore the shorter to medium measure of inflation remains valid yet irrelavent to my play. Until environmentally friendly power is created black gold is king...and even when we have this green power, third worlds and emerging economies will still be chasing the black gold, as the infrastructure costs of rebuilding remain high.
the rise and fall of the commodity prices is hyper inflated and deflated at both extremes for reasons beyond the obvious supply and demand - however what remains consistent is both are raw materials....and both will be required in the medium future.
er yes well ,if you can tell me what that has to do with shorting Barc at 172 p and getting run out this week then I'm a believer ..LOL
In the fullness of time growth should return and when it does OIl/resources are going to be a happy place to be ,it's why i don't mind buying a little bit whenever they get kicked. BUT for any of the aforementioned to happen we need to see demand ramping up or supply ramping down ..at the moment I think they're just getting ahead of themselves because people saw how they ran up in the last cycle and like lemmings expect it to happen again and not next year or the year after ,but tomorrow and next week ..if they did ,if they actually did that then the rest of the economy is in the toilet ,perhaps I should say further in the toilet
....you can't have it both ways ...big rally in oil etc now is extremely negative for just about everything else...I don't see it happening UNLESS the dollar dives and creates a rush for the tangibles.Wow didn't expect that! Anyway let's say I shorted from 170 and profit half at 155 and proft the rest at 140.
170-155 = 15points
170-140 = 30points
15+30 = 45
45/2 = 22.5points averaged.
I don't know how you worked out 15 points. Irrelevent of the point yes that's the risk I was willing to take. What of it? Stop Loss is a little high I know but that's the risk I was willing to take. But I'm glad you pointed this out to me. I should've put in a 20point stop. However, I'm still learning and everyday is a new trading and learning experience.
I hope none of this is of offence to you but what was the reason for that message? To point out the risk/reward ratio?
Vikash
Chump,
totally off topic, granted, but the dollar is about to rollacoaster...for many reason. As for the rational comparision to barclays....at 170-175 i felt based on the principals of debt, ****s of power and which toxic assests are yet to transpire it is simply punching way above its weight. this is not the good old days...when in your lifetime have you heard the government 'asking' banks if they want to join a scheme...capatilism meets socialism. secondly there was a aggresive move to takeover ealier on which was backlashed by sharholders mainly qatar holdings....who may i say have of late made more mistakes than me (buying into the lse just before it gets dumped into the ftse 250 tut tut tut! Why also would the sale of the i share arm be such a good thing? that division contributes a large portion to the overall group profit...
On the point of the oil lemmings....the lemmings are the ones who bought into oil at $125..there are not many lemmings with much money at this price(its far too cheap), this is the season of disbelief....Can you imagine you hear the anaylst saying when oil went dow to mid 30's it might go all the way to 30! wow who cares.....its on the right side of 0. until they start giving oil away with a mc donalds breakfast im a bull.
totally off topic, granted, but the dollar is about to rollacoaster...for many reason. As for the rational comparision to barclays....at 170-175 i felt based on the principals of debt, ****s of power and which toxic assests are yet to transpire it is simply punching way above its weight. this is not the good old days...when in your lifetime have you heard the government 'asking' banks if they want to join a scheme...capatilism meets socialism. secondly there was a aggresive move to takeover ealier on which was backlashed by sharholders mainly qatar holdings....who may i say have of late made more mistakes than me (buying into the lse just before it gets dumped into the ftse 250 tut tut tut! Why also would the sale of the i share arm be such a good thing? that division contributes a large portion to the overall group profit...
On the point of the oil lemmings....the lemmings are the ones who bought into oil at $125..there are not many lemmings with much money at this price(its far too cheap), this is the season of disbelief....Can you imagine you hear the anaylst saying when oil went dow to mid 30's it might go all the way to 30! wow who cares.....its on the right side of 0. until they start giving oil away with a mc donalds breakfast im a bull.
Pound foolish
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Barclays will be a good prospect again when they go back to ub 100 levels. Me I'll start buying again at 70p.
LOL..that was me
bet your kicking yourself for pulling out too earlier....nevermind its happens!
If you think that it's because you have no idea what I am doing.
Traders shouldn't get emotional about shares, bad things happen when they do. Good traders will set a price to enter into a stock and set a price to come out, this price should be revised when needed even if it means losing money. I've had a few stocks this year so far which have increased after a sell at profit, but I don't kick myself it's part of the process and I've reinvested into other stocks which have also made profits.
Been incredibly "lucky" this year, Haven't picked a bad stock yet (touch wood).
Been incredibly "lucky" this year, Haven't picked a bad stock yet (touch wood).
He's right "I" don't get emotional that he thinks he knows what he's doing ,but doesn't
Clue. Whatever I was doing with Barclays .."trend" wasn't part of it. Now don't get too emotional in thanking me for that ..I also help old ladies across the road ,throw bones for dogs etc .
Clue. Whatever I was doing with Barclays .."trend" wasn't part of it. Now don't get too emotional in thanking me for that
..I also help old ladies across the road ,throw bones for dogs etc .