Amazing it is. DOW is down 1000 or so points on the week, markets are crashing across the world and all we can find to talk about on here is "dissers" or how to scalp a couple of points here and there.
WHAT A DISASTER MARKETS ARE, unless of course you are short,
OR
LONG EUR and AUD !!!
STREAMLINED at a glance for when you are in a hurry
I am putting my hands up! I surrender!
We bulls have flesh dripping off us as the bears continue to whip their long claws about. I have lost people a lot of money. My seasoned and previously well proven approach to trading simply does not work in these markets. My most sincere apology.
While it will come right, at what cost, at what juncture?
This is a diabolical market, the worst I have seen in a lifetime. Some of the most experienced and successful traders all around the world are in fact doing very poorly. The results will be revealed in the months ahead or funds simply closed down.
While the market is only 4% off its all time highs in the USA, the big swings down that we have relentlessly experienced since November last year amount to something in the order of a 60% or more correction. Being highly leveraged and bullish in such a market has resulted in inordinate losses.
The fight goes on however.
THIS IS WHAT I THINK IS HAPPENING
1. The Fed should have as I originally forecast raised rates in March this year. Then we would not have had the last six months of the market being nervous about, obsessed about, and trying to anticipate, when the Fed will actually hike. The Fed is behind the curve. There is no reason for crisis rate settings. It just keeps people nervous.
2. The media negativity has reached all time highs at the same time as the US market has reached all time highs. On any piece of negative news, and there will always be negative news as there is always positive news, the exaggeration and hyped up panic has been well beyond what use to happen in previous decades. The race to the top for the panic story among the media is totally devastating the psyche of investors.
3. I am beginning to think I was right in 2012 when I said we were tipping over into “greed” again. I completely failed to recognise however, it would seem, that we have shifted to “greed” about “destruction”. It seems for a large mass of investors and traders out there, their eyes light up or glaze over whichever way you want to look at it, at the prospect of a market or stock crashing. They are excited by destruction instead of being excited about building companies by investing in them. This is a huge significant shift in the dynamics of markets. It is likely here to stay as part of the modern day internet/social media mix.
4. In response to this new form of “greed” there are a multitude of newsletters preaching the end of the world and the the demise of everything from America to currencies generally. THESE ARE, not to put too fine a point on it, TOTAL RUBBISH! They are full of illogical claims that do not fit together, but just keep repeating don’t be like everyone else, be one of the few to know the end of the world is coming?
It is cult psychology and it works.
There are so many of them, they are now the majority. The contrarian view, has in fact been to be bullish for many years now.
This constant daily bombardment of junk negative e-mails on top of negative mainstream media is killing every natural rally.
It is as if these people go out of their way to pour fresh weed killer on every rose bush that dares to raise itself from the ground.
The long term risk is the death of the stock market as a means of raising capital for worthwhile enterprises. Why should the hard working people of the world trying to build something, put themselves at the mercy of the most dumbed down IQs in the mainstream media and the destructive social media set.
Let’s be absolutely clear here. The world economy is doing fine. The US economy is strong. Existing home sales just came out at ten year highs just like new homes, and this further confirms a Main Street America prepared to spend and invest in the future. China is still booming at 7% GDP. Manufacturing is still strong, but later today the market will again be vulnerable to a tiny private survey that is always well below reality and wrong. It will yet be feasted upon by the destructive media. The only problem is a negative media, negative newsletter industry, negative social media set, all intent on destruction.
THE ONLY AND ULTIMATE SOLUTION WILL BE TOTAL SELLER EXHAUSTION
and/or, THE FED HIKING RATES.
I have no idea which will come first. But, I am going to stand aside on the trading and signals front for a while. Lingering on the sidelines with a few small interests until I have seen both occur. No more hunting for the usual natural turnarounds.
This is a complete change in the nature of markets.
The only cure will be an eventual blood bath for the “Destructors”
That will only come when they are ALL SHORT. Just as occurred in March 2009. Unfortunately I have no idea when that will be now?
We will continue to hunt for signs of such, but this has not worked over the past few months. Which is why I have extended the service for free for a full three months, and will now be extremely cautious.
WHAT IS WORKING
IS MY FORECAST EUR AND AUD RALLIES !!!
The Euro and Australian dollar are likely to continue to rally savagely.
This is the really great news. That total destruction type traders have reached a position of being totally short the Euro and AUD. This is why these markets will rally regardless of data or news or logic. All of the destructive people are short. Seller exhaustion is complete, and their bloodbath in the currency market has begun. We will continue to buy these currencies.
The same will happen in the stock market, but we may not be at that point yet.
I now suggest remain very wary of stocks for the moment.
From CB
