a free gift to total newbies from MajorDutch

[scose-no-doubt]

The fnck have you been eating Scose?

Haven't been asleep.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I don't trade candle 'patterns' on a mechanical basis but if I did I don't agree that they have a simple binomial outcome.They do if you use fixed stops and targets but that would be a nonsense way to trade imo

Not having it. Price moves in expected direction or it doesn't. Work or fail.

. What I mean by this is a discretionary trader is likely to set stops and targets in the context of overall price action.

Then you're trading flows surrounding whatever is driving the PA, no?

FSS, bud! You think candles mean fookin' dick to NFP? FFS.

 

[Splitlink]

are you beginner joe, next you will be asking for a statement

No, I'm realistic. I never ask for statements.

 

[MajorDutch]

Not having it. Price moves in expected direction or it doesn't. Work or fail.



Then you're trading flows surrounding whatever is driving the PA, no?

FSS, bud! You think candles mean fookin' dick to NFP? FFS.

no sorry very wrong mate. if you use discretionary stops and targets there isn't a binomial outcome. end of. discretionary trading is not like flipping a coin in terms of outcomes. for example you enter a trade (on a discretionary basis) it runs in your direction for 3 days then see signs that price is reversing you then make another discretionary decision to take profit and exit.

Of course candles don't mean anything to NFP they are just a representation of historical price. nothing more nothing less.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

We're not discussing your stops and targets we're talking about a candle strategy.

A doji flips trend or it doesn't.
A bearish outside engulfing means price goes down... or it doesn't.
A bullish break on an inside bar means price goes up... or it doesn't.

In my opinion, the only basis for argument is how much of a move would be considered a validation. Then you get the added benefit of assessing or ignoring the inconclusives. Depending on your personality, I suppose.

 

[wackypete2]

Haven't been asleep.

OK, I'll be the clueless one to ask...what the hell is that avatar?? lol

Peter

 

[MajorDutch]

We're not discussing your stops and targets we're talking about a candle strategy.

A doji flips trend or it doesn't.
A bearish outside engulfing means price goes down... or it doesn't.
A bullish break on an inside bar means price goes up... or it doesn't.

In my opinion, the only basis for argument is how much of a move would be considered a validation. Then you get the added benefit of assessing or ignoring the inconclusives. Depending on your personality, I suppose.

son, you can't have a strategy without stops and targets. besides we appear to be talking about different things. In the 1st post I wrote 'Warning - This not a recommended strategy just an observation exercise'. Just an observation exercise.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

OK, I'll be the clueless one to ask...what the hell is that avatar?? lol

Peter

Hilarious Cartoon - YouTube

 

[MajorDutch]

meanwhile down on the ranch price continues to move.

 

[Shakone]

Which one are you talking about, the pinbar up which is stopped out or the bearish outside bar down? Also, why do you think 82 winning trades in a row is impossible?

By the way, if anyone thinks that the daily high, low, open and close (otherwise known as a candle or bar) has no relevance at all, then they're a complete 'tard.

 

[MajorDutch]

Yesterday's bar. 82 not impossible even on reasonable R.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

It has to be the "engulfing candle" as the "pin bar" is with price direction.

You are correct regarding relevance; every candle/bar is relevant. If you understand the relevance you can deduce the expectation. Without understanding the relevance, you can have no confidence in expectation, there for the "pattern" only is meaningless.

For example in the above chart; where is it heading to? Without a logical explanation the set up alone means nothing.

This is what is causing the debate of the thread, even though it was probably not MD's initial intention.

 

[Masquerade]

Do you have any help for Friday 13th trading strategies?

 

[MajorDutch]

It has to be the "engulfing candle" as the "pin bar" is with price direction.

You are correct regarding relevance; every candle/bar is relevant. If you understand the relevance you can deduce the expectation. Without understanding the relevance, you can have no confidence in expectation, there for the "pattern" only is meaningless.

For example in the above chart; where is it heading to? Without a logical explanation the set up alone means nothing.

This is what is causing the debate of the thread, even though it was probably not MD's initial intention.

You speaketh the truth. There is so much bo770x talked about candle triggers on both sides of the fence with a healthy dollop of confirmation bias thrown in. A candle pattern on its own means nothing and doesn't explain why price moved. If you go around trading pin bars willy nilly you will lose your account.
Do you need to know why price moved? Nope. Can you trade profitably by analysing why price moved? Yes. More than one way to skin a cat best keep an open mind in this game

 

[MajorDutch]

Do you have any help for Friday 13th trading strategies?

Maybe let's wait till the daily candles close

 

[Masquerade]

I meant general friday 13th strategies. Are there any ghost patterns to trade or anything like that?

I already found out about the ghost town: The Ghost Town Chart Pattern For Swing Traders

 

[MajorDutch]

I meant general friday 13th strategies. Are there any ghost patterns to trade or anything like that?

I already found out about the ghost town: The Ghost Town Chart Pattern For Swing Traders

Dunno I don't trade patterns. Try the rumpled one.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

@WSW87
I think it's just about whether people want to punt or understand. Personally I think your average (i.e. no statistical analysis) TA punter has a limited shelf like and that is the reason why I'm in the camp that like to know wtf is going on.

For instance, you can punt that bar short and crack on about it until the cows come home but if it would have failed, what would you be saying now?

As it stands, I bet there's a trader out there that can tell you that the market's the bids been pulled for x reason or something of the sort and that mofo will be shorter than Warwick Davis.My argument is simply that the punter's profits are nothing more than statistical expectation.

@Dutch To clarify, candle "strategy" was the wrong use of words. I should have said talking about candle formation as a valid indicator or price expectation. I believe that their validity lies somewhere between tail end of the dog at best and irrelevant at the least.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Bit of lulz to lighten the mood if you don't mind
My Mate Josh Checking Out The WC Toilet @ Georges Bar, Borovets, Bulgaria. CERT 18 - YouTube

 

[brewski1984]

I think a good idea would be to elaborate on those 7 trades and explain what happened and why it happened. If the pinbars/outside bars are just pixels on your monitor then what is it that the total newbies are actually looking for?

I do trade the usual pin bar trash myself but I look for other things before those bars.