my journal

This is a discussion on my journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Now keep going... do not let me down......

Closed Thread
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Nov 23, 2009, 7:41pm   #796
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread Now keep going... do not let me down...
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 7:46pm   #797
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread Don't **** me now that margin call is so close. Do not **** me now.
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 7:51pm   #798
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread Go up now. I need you to go up now. Not in half an hour.
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 7:54pm   #799
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread Nooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 7:56pm   #800
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread DAMN!!! Worse and worse... I am totally ****ed.
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 7:57pm   #801
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread What a mess... I should've gone to work today. What a mess...
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 7:59pm   #802
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread I'll go smoke a cigarette. In the meanwhile make it up to me. Yes, I will forgive you. But you gotta go up to 78.20.
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 8:07pm   #803
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread Oh yeah... margin call now. And you think you're going to rise after I close you? I will close my EUR and keep you open. You asshole.
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 8:12pm   #804
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread Oh god... I was right on everything, and I lost 2000 dollars just because I kept staring at the screen for 15 hours... oh man... do i suck or what?

Closing my CL positions in 2 minutes with a staggering loss of 2000 dollars.

snap1.jpg

The famous 2000 dollars I told you about. All my discretionary gains of one month wiped out in 2 hours, on a trade made at the last minute, with no planning whatsoever, and doubling up when I saw I was losing.

Now 4 contracts on the EUR, to try and recoup my 2000 dollars loss. Do I suck or what...
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 8:17pm   #805
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread And yet... you know what? It makes me laugh. I spit on myself, on money and everyone around me. **** money, **** everyone. I don't give a ****. **** me. But most of all: **** discretionary trading.

Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 8:42pm   #806
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread As if it weren't enough. Now there's a margin call on the EUR. And I am down 250 dollars on that as well. So, instead of doing everything perfectly, and having 500 dollars or more profit, now I am ending the day with 2300 dollars less. And keeping 2 contracts open during the night. If I'll get lucky, as happens in these cases, I'll make it all back by tomorrow morning. 100 ticks down means 2500 dollars. If I don't get lucky, I'll probably stay with this 2300 dollars loss. I don't think I'll lose more.

If I'll make it all back by tomorrow morning, I basically wasted a day at home. More or less like playing videogames. Same emotions. It feels like playing risk for a whole day and not winning one game, that's all. And probably this year, for my 12th year in a row, I won't have to worry about paying any taxes. Wow, at least I don't have to worry about that.
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 9:38pm   #807
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread I'm going to ride this sonuvabitch like a wild horse in the coming weeks. It's going to be fun. I want all my money back. I don't care if it's the CL who took my money - they're all part of the same gang. I'll just focus on one of them. I want all my money back. I don't care about the others. But the EUR is not getting away. I want all my money back, and more. I want to get to 20k. Sonsofbitches. I'll focus on the EUR. The method is clear. It is sound. I just have to follow it. Maybe with just one contract, or two at the most. I want my money back, you assholes.

I'll obsess about the EUR, I'll follow him wherever he goes. I'll learn his habits, his weaknesses, I want to know everything about his family. Bottom line: I want my money.
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 9:46pm   #808
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread OVERSTRETCHED METHOD

ENTRIES:
A) Set up a month of hourly candles with pivots
B) Keep a discretionary eye on correlations with ES-CL, GBP and ZN-GBL

C) In order to make the trade, these 3 requirements must be met:
1) overstretched in ticks (>150 ticks top-bottom)
2) overstretched in hours (>18 hours going up or >12 hours going down)
3) time is right (9-11 am or 6-10 pm CET)

D) In order to make the trade, at least 1 of these 2 requirements must be met:
1) pivots (touched S2 or R2)
2) reversal pattern (increasingly shorter legs, do not enter after a tall candle)


EXITS:
Close position after >9 hours and 6-10 PM or 5-9 AM

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 23, 2009 at 10:16pm.
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 10:23pm   #809
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread Good link on pivots (i'll even try to read the whole page):

Day trading forex futures with pivot points, by Eric Utley:
Quote:
...is a full-time trader with over a decade of experience in equities, equity options, futures, and currencies. He specializes in trading currencies, using a combination of quantitative, technical, and fundamental analysis. He is the lead contributor to INVESToolsCT.com, manages a currency trading blog, produces educational programs, and hosts a weekly online seminar.
I'll write more about it when I'll read it.

Actually I have time now. I'll start quoting the things I understand and find meaningful.

Quote:
Spot vs. Futures

To be sure, there are a some big differences between the contracts that trade in the spot Forex market and the FX futures. Perhaps the biggest -- and arguably most important -- difference is that spot Forex contracts trade over the counter at no particular central location, while FX futures clear at the CME. The central clearing and guarantee of counterparty credit by the CME are huge benefits of FX futures over spot Forex contracts.
...

Quote:
But for the most part, I trade the currency futures. That's because the cost of trading futures is, in most cases, lower than trading spot Forex. I've found futures cost about $20, or less, per round turn, while the spot Forex contracts cost between $30 to $50, and up, per round turn. The lower cost of trading currency futures is why I use the instrument in all of my day trading strategies, including the pivot point methodology.

(But please know that you can apply spot Forex contracts to the methodology that I'm about to show you.)

Pivot Points

Pivot points are a popular tool used by futures traders in all sorts of markets, ranging from equity indices to crude oil. And, sure enough, pivot points are readily applied to trading currency futures.

Pivot points are support and resistance levels derived from the previous period's high, low, and closing values. There are a variety of pivot values with which to trade, including monthly, weekly, and daily values. You could even calculate hourly values. When determining which period to trade with, you've got to consider your time frame as an individual and your particular style. I'll use daily pivot points for the purpose of this article since the focus is day trading.
...

Quote:
The pivot values are plotted as horizontal levels which, in turn, serve as support and resistance. The pivot point itself can be thought of as the day's mid-point, or fulcrum. It's where the buyers and sellers meet to determine the day's trend in a currency pair. The support and resistance levels that are plotted around the pivot point are just that: potential support and resistance.
Ok, that's great. So that means if we're above the middle line the trend is up, and viceversa. That's easy. Except it could be delusional as well, because there's so many lines from pivots that we could make it say anything. But he knows his stuff and says they work. This guy is great. I wish I had more patience as a reader.

Quote:
The power of pivot points is unleashed when you follow an unfolding trend during the day, and use the pivot values to measure the magnitude of trend. Additionally, the pivot points can be used to determine entry points into a trade. Applying simple breakout and breakdown entries around pivot points is a powerful way of using the tool.
Quote:
An example of following the trend of the day as it unfolds, and entering trades on the break of pivot values, is illustrated on the 5-minute chart below of the JPY/USD contract. In this example, the Yen began the day near its pivot value, rolled over from R1, and proceeded to breakdown below the pivot point, S1, and S2. The pair dropped by about 60 ticks, providing ample opportunity for a day trader to make money on each breakdown below support. These types of intraday trends unfold a few times throughout the trading week, and they are relatively easy to exploit by following the futures contract through its pivot values.
strategyarticle_2.gif

"Relatively easy"? **** it, man. I'll just focus and obsess about pivots on the EUR from now on. I need nothing else.

Quote:
Pivot Point Tips And Tricks

Trading with pivot points is not a big secret. Floor traders and dealing desks have been applying the methodology for decades in the currency market. But what separates the profitable traders from the losers is the simple act of following the trend of the day, cutting losses short, and letting profits run to the next pivot value. In addition, there are a few observations I've made over the years that I can add to the simple truth of following the trend.

The first tip I want to share is that the best trend days usually unfold when the currency begins the trading day near its pivot point. You might have already made this observation in the two above examples of the Euro and Yen. If you didn't, then take a second and jump back to the above charts, and note how the Euro and Yen began the day at or very near their pivot points. There are usually two or three days out of the week during which the majors such as the Euro, Yen, Pound, and Franc begin trading at their daily pivot. These are the days to look for a big trend to unfold.
Ok, here he seems to talk exactly about my strategy, what an honor:

Quote:
If the currency that you're trading begins the day far away from the pivot, either below S2 or above R2, then it's probably a day that you want to walk away from. When a currency opens the day at one of the daily pivot extremes, it usually spends the rest of the session gyrating around that level. Avoid trying to trade a reversal of the overnight trend. Occasionally it might occur, but more often than not a big overnight trend will stall out at R2 or S2. The temptation is there to try to squeeze out a small profit, or bet on a reversal of the overnight trend. But the reality is that these are the days that can destroy a trader's equity.
Wow, check it out - he's totally right about the "gyrating" (but only as far as today).

snap1.jpg

Yeah, ok, but so far he's not saying to not play the reversal happening from 9 PM CET. He's only saying to not bet on a reversal happening at 9 AM CET, which is when the day in Chicago begins ("Avoid trying to trade a reversal of the overnight trend"). So he's not saying my strategy is crap, at least not yet.

However, today I was wrong, according to what he says. He's just not saying that my overnight strategy is wrong.

Quote:
You will find two examples below of strong overnight trends leading to massive gaps at the open of New York trading in the futures market. The first is an example of a gap up in the Euro. The pair opened at R2, where it spent the rest of the session. The second example is of a gap down in the Pound. The contract opened below S2, and spent the rest of the day gyrating in a tight range.
Click the image to open in full size.

Click the image to open in full size.

Quote:
These days are best left to the floor traders. In the long run, you'll be better off not even trying to trade during days when the currency futures stage a substantial gap, either high or lower. You'll be better of by waiting for those days when the currency futures open near their pivot points.
But guess what, Eric, your advice is good and I am ready to follow it, since in the morning, except when I have nightmares and eat too many french toasts, I'm at at work. So I can't trade what you're advising against, as I did today. I can't believe you're telling me all this stuff about pivots! Thanks so much.

Here's the last part of his post (I almost quoted the whole thing anyway):

Quote:
Profit With Pivots

Day trading with pivot points can be applied to the spot Forex market just as they are in the currency futures market. Support and resistance, and the techniques that accompany these price levels, are consistent across all markets. In fact, pivot points have been used across dealing desks for decades in the spot Forex market. To the individual investor, however, it makes more sense to use currency futures when day trading simply because of the lower costs associated with trading futures.

The most important point to remember when applying pivot points to day trading currency futures is to follow the trend of the day, and simply look to enter into an unfolding trend as a pair makes its way through pivot values. Pay special attention to those days when the currency opens at or very near its pivot point. And avoid trading when a contract opens far away from its pivot point, at or beyond S2 and R2 values.
Wow, that tells me a lot about today. Thanks, Eric.

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 23, 2009 at 11:06pm.
Yamato is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2009, 11:11pm   #810
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread This was all very clear. However, the only thing Eric didn't say is about my overnight strategy. I am not saying let's bet on a reversal of the overnight trend, like I did today. I am now saying let's bet on a reversal of the intraday trend, and I got backtesting results to back it up. So ultimately no one will convince me it's not right.

I don't care where pivots stand with regards to this. If the conditions for the Overstretched method are there at 9 PM CET, I will trade against the (overstretched) intraday trend. At most I lost nothing.

As far as the day, thanks, Eric, because you might just have been the last drop I needed to turn myself into a trend follower. Besides, how am I going to trade a day where price is above R2 or below S2 with pivots since there are no lines to look at? It's simple. The lines are not there so I can't trade anything. But thanks for specifying it.

Which brings me to tomorrow. Now since the pivot formula is high low close divided by 3, then I guess tomorrow we'll be opening near pivot line, cause the 3 things almost coincide and we're still hanging out around there. But then, since we're highly overbought today, I bet you anything tomorrow we'll fall, and that means also pivots are in favor of a fall, because pretty soon we'll be below S2. So tomorrow is my big day, when I'll go to work because i didn't eat any french toasts and I'll recover from my losses, because I'll be at work and unable to screw my trade. The point, Eric, is just that I get my money back.
Yamato is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Another Journal... trader_dante Trading Journals 25 Sep 19, 2010 9:43am
My little journal. HaloTrader Trading Journals 16 Jun 26, 2009 12:02am
The EA Journal! Victor90 Trading Journals 1 Oct 28, 2008 12:47am

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)