my journal

This is a discussion on my journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Thanks for the honest advice Travis, I think the reason that Elder and others write books is because most cannot ...

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Old Nov 27, 2009, 6:18am   #876
Joined Jan 2005
Re: my journal

Thanks for the honest advice Travis,

I think the reason that Elder and others write books is because most cannot trade themselves like you say but keep in mind that the internet and forums is not for everyone and the old paper and pen is all that they had when they started to write. I think some have just got so comfortable with trading that they do not get the excitement from it any more and want more human interaction from their day. Then, if they get a following from live seminars etc, they write a book to make more money off the back of it. Who wouldn't! Personally, if i can't relate to what an author is saying, i give up reading a book too. No point adopting a method/concept if it doesn't make sense in my own mind. I give them a fair chance though before i drop it.

As for the sharing trading thoughts, i am up for it but not sure how it will work. at this point in time. I am a very much a longer time frame trader and we have a bit of a time difference to chat live considering we both work during the day. Plus i think i need to learn to stand on my own 2 feet first before i join others with any form of confidence. I need to get consistently profitable before i consider myself ready for that. Nice offer though. Keep it open.

As for the journal, i think i would use it a a form of keeping myself in check like you. The journal will be a copy of what i write for my own records so it shouldn't be extra work except a couple of copy paste manoeuvres before i shut off my PC for the day. If i have no discipline to write a journal then i question the discipline to trade. (Another "Elderism" i'm afraid.) Good records = good trading.

I think once its documented and open for all to see, i can't lie to myself and say "I would have done that" or "i didn't do that on purpose". The whole world (or the single anon. reader) will not know otherwise. Plus i might meet some other interesting people along the way!

I will PM you when i am underway with the journal/trading system and we'll see what happens.

Anyway, i've crashed your journal enough. Keep it going, happy trading.

Coop
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 8:41am   #877
 
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travis started this thread Don't worry about the time difference. Maybe you think that I am in the States, but I am in Italy. In fact I am not a taxi driver nor a serial killer, and my name is not travis either. I am an Italian guy, and I'm working at a bank. Sorry about the misunderstanding. Travis is just the protagonist of my favorite movie, Taxi Driver. He's the one from the States.

Ok, let's postpone the work together.

Yeah, the suspect that they may not be trading, makes me not want to read any of these books.

A-ha.. keeping a journal to keep yourself in check, so your discipline is not as strong as I've been saying. You have temptations? Yes, I agree with your idea to write a journal, but the fact is: look at those 90% of journals started and abandoned after a few weeks.

Yes, good luck with everything. We'll be neighbors as journal writers.

I want to congratulate you on your new business and I'm sure you'll do very well and good luck to you, as long as your interests don't conflict with mine.

Last edited by travis; Nov 27, 2009 at 8:57am.
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 8:50am   #878
 
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Abolishing counter-trend top/bottom picking

travis started this thread What's ruined me, what's blown out my accounts in all these 12 years has always been top and bottom picking. It doesn't make sense to even allow the slightest top and bottom picking in my discretionary trading anymore.

This morning, an hour ago, I thought the GBP had fallen long enough and I went LONG on it. A few minutes ago when I last checked I was down another 800 dollars. It's time that I entirely abolish any remnant of my top and bottom picking. From now on, there'll be only pro-trend trades. Also my systems say that pro-trend works better. The intraday systems work better than the overnight ones.

PRICE DOES BOUNCE BUT ONLY IF THE RUBBER BAND DOESN'T BREAK DUE TO OVERSTRETCHING
But it's fair to say that at night reversals do happen, and you can make money with counter-trend trades. However, there's like an invisible rubber band attached to price, that makes it bounce when it's fallen all day long, but, beyond a given quantity of falling, that rubber band breaks, and you can't count price on bouncing any more. Whereas, when I trade, I totally disregard this detail (it's not easy to bear everything in mind when you do discretionary trading), that my systems have very clear: the range of the day. Actually, it's precisely "overstretching" that I've been looking for, to predict tops and bottoms, and it is the same overstretching that each time breaks the rubber band that should guarantee the bounce. The example is perfect: you stretch a rubber band, and it snaps back - you stretch it too much, it breaks, and there's free falling of price.

I have blown out my account endlessly in the past 12 years by doing top and bottom picking. Now I will entirely abolish it. It's official.

I CAN EXCLUDE PRO-TREND TRADES BY ANTICIPATING A BOUNCE, BUT NOT BET ON THE BOUNCE
From now on, my discretionary trading will not go LONG if the day is RED and will not go SHORT if the day is GREEN.

Yes, I may even rule out more trades, because of fearing a bounce, but I will not bet on price bouncing.

Here's what my new discretionary system looks like:

PRO-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
HOTKEYS
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order.
----------------------
CHARTS
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and if
1) time is between 9 AM and 6 PM CET
2) the 15-period ma gets crossed
3) your entry and your take profit are both 1/5th away from any pivot lines
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks

----
It's late and I came back from work (17.00 CET). I will modify my system in this same message (right after this sentence), so i can reply to wprins's messages in the next message after his. It will take me a while to reply to all he wrote: I will probably have to reply with calm tomorrow.
----

I came home and my equity was amazingly doing better than this morning. My crazy trade this morning didn't go that bad, because I actually was making money. I proceded to closing the trade. But it was a bad trade, against the trend, and hoping it would reverse, praying it would reverse, a Hail Mary trade, like all my trades.

I've been doing some thinking, and here's my new system:

PRO-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
HOTKEYS
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, "C" for "close position (to abort failed trades, or exit early).
----------------------
CHARTS
SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 DAYS OF 15-minutes CANDLES WITH PIVOTS and 15-period moving average
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
2_days_15_min_with_pivots_with_15-periods_ma.jpg
4_hours_1_min_with_15-periods_ma.jpg
----------------------
ENTRIES if:
1) the 15-period 15-minute ma is in favor
2) the 15-period 1-minute ma gets crossed by price (in favor)
3) your entry and your take profit are both 1/5th away from any pivot lines
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks. You can exit early if you wish, but not increase the distance of the stoploss.

------------------

It's 19.00 CET and I have to let everyone know that I am back at over 6k today. Not thanks to my method yet, but I think it will work in the future. Remember: I am planning to make it all back to 10k by next Friday, and then to keep going thanks to both my PRO-TREND system and intuition (because now that I am allowing myself to exit trade early, that is important). I'll answer to wprins' messages tomorrow, because my neighbouress invited me to dinner again, because I told her I lost almost all my money.

Last edited by travis; Nov 27, 2009 at 6:16pm.
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 4:01pm   #879
Joined Apr 2008
Re: my journal

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
... I don't know why they're selling their books - I mistrust them. If you want to teach people, why do you have to publish a book and not write on a forum? I've always wondered that. Ok, maybe Elder, but just him, and because of his name, doesn't know how to use computers. But the others... are not justified, especially those teaching courses, like Larry Williams and such... I mistrust them. If you are so good, you should have millions, and then why are you selling books and courses and so on? It doesn't make sense to me. And if you are not good, then you shouldn't be selling anything either. So nobody should be selling anything about how to trade.
With all due respect Travis, the flawed premise in your thinking is that for everyone it's all about the money. This is not neccesarily true, and for some it is not all about the money. Some people like writing, some people like teaching. Some people are in fact, good at trading, but get (maybe more) fulfillment from helping and teaching others.

If the only thing that drives you is money then you might find it hard to appreciate that there may be other things in life equally or more important to others, but this is nevertheless true.

In addition, it is often said that people who don't trade cannot coach or teach others to trade. Now, while it's ideal to be able to be mentored by a successful trader, it is not at all (I think) true to say that that neccesarily implies that it's impossible for someone to coach/teach someone to become a trader, even if that person is not themselves neccesarily a terribly good trader themselves.

To wit: How many coaches of top athletes are top atheletes themselves? How many coaches of anything for that matter, are also top in the area they coach in? The answer, not many at all, if any. But this causes no problem: the skills needed to understand how to be a top <xyz> is after all different from actually being a top <xyz>, and the skills needed to observer mistaked and teach others is again different from actually doing <xyz>.

Bandler and Grinder in their work on NLP (Neuro Linguistic Programming) did extensive research on this topic, which has to dow with how one might identify and extract (for a given area of excellence/expertise) what makes highly successful people actually succesful so as to then be able model it and then make it transferable/teachable to others. You might read up on NLP at some point.

As an aside, as for Elder specifically, as I recall, he does actually trade himself. Have you actually read his book "Come into my Trading room"? If you've read it and properly consider what he says, you should soon come to the conclusion that it's certainly not snake oil and there's a *lot* of useful ideas to try and to take out of it. Whether his techniques/approaches fits/suits your personality is a different matter of course, but it would be a disservice to yourself to distrust anyone else writing on the topic of trading just because you cannot fathom why they might bother to do so. Even reading bad books or failed experiments/failures are useful IMHO. To wit: Reading bad books will sharpen your snake-oil spotting skills and help you recognize snake-oil salesmen, whereas good books will help improve your knowledge/background, and failed experiments/failures teach us how _not_ to do things. All of which are really beneficial positives.

Anyway, I'll post again once I've read some of your other posts
So what am I saying? Don't be afraid to read books by Elder (or whoever else), as Elbert Hubbard once said "the biggest mistake in life is continually fearing that you'll make one", this is especially true in trading because you *will* have losing trades. You *will* be wrong more times than most people feel comfortable with. But, this is not something to be avoided or be afraid of.
__________________
"Most people don't lose because of what the market does but because of how they respond to the markets ... and how they handle losing trades." - From a review of "What I learned losing a Million Dollars" by Jim Paul and Brendan Moynihan.
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 4:24pm   #880
Joined Apr 2008
Re: my journal

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
I am honored that you've been a member for over a year, wrote only 14 posts and most of them on my journal. That's like my highest achievement so far, as far as the journal goes. It's like the best compliment I could ever receive from anyone.
I'm glad that it means something to you. I would hate if my time/energy spent here was totally wasted. I guess I just like interacting with others and helping them. (The golden rule and all that.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
I am sorry you joined the club. We have very similar problems. Everything you say applies to me (not clear entries nor exits, etc.). What do you think of my last system (above)? Don't you think we could work on it together? Or do you trade different markets? Do you have any objections? Does it suck so badly that you won't even reply to my proposal?
Well. Firstly just to note, I've only *very* cursorily considered it so far, so I have very little of an opinion on it. What I do like about it is that it's simple. Simple is better in this game, but like Einstein said, "Make it as simple as possible, but no simpler." Without testing it however, I have no idea whether it will actually work. I'll need to ask you a few questions about it to try and better understand what the idea/trading concept behind it is and why it works, and when it works, and what markets. (Apologies if you've already meantioned this in previous posts and I've not noticed them -- I've not read all the posts describing the system.)

I wouldn't be against working on it with you no, albeit, I'm also working on my own system at the minute, and having a bit of trouble finding enough time apart from my day job to commit to properly testing and developing that. So, with the caveat that the process is not going to be lightning fast as I'm unfortunately time starved, I'm nevertheless quite happy to get involved and find it quite a compliment that someone with 12 years of market exposure experience would want my input. As for markets I trade, I trade in relatively small scale spot forex for the most part, also looking into ETF's and large volume stocks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
It seems to have very clear as far as entries and exits. I wonder if it'll really take me to 10k from 5k I am at right now.
Attachment 69586

Today I had a take profit at 1.5047, and it got down to 1.5052. It sucks. I hope it will hit my take profit in the near future.
How much testing/back testing have you done using this system? What expectancy do you have of this system using the rules you describe?

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
I don't know about you but my whole problem until now has been that I don't want to go with the trend, but only against the trend, and that I don't use stoplosses. I have enough knowledge to be profitable. 12 years of observing the markets is enough.
Yes... the trend really is your friend. Amazing how hard it is however, to just follow the trend eh?

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
No, I don't have enough knowledge until I'll be profitable. I want to be profitable, and if I am not, it's because there's something that i've been missing until now. Maybe knowledge of myself.
That yes, perhaps, and also perhaps (?) not enough knowledge of your trading systems?

I'll have a closer look at your system rules over the weekend etc. Have a good weekend.
__________________
"Most people don't lose because of what the market does but because of how they respond to the markets ... and how they handle losing trades." - From a review of "What I learned losing a Million Dollars" by Jim Paul and Brendan Moynihan.
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 11:41pm   #881
Joined Apr 2008
Re: my journal

Hello Travis. I was reading some of the articles on T2W tonight and came accross one which included a quote I mentioned to you recently, so I thought I'd post it again. (This is not where I read it originally, it was in one of my books somewhere I think, but anyway, that matters not.) The article is here: http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/a...-trading/page2

The quote is this:

Quote:
GO WHERE THE STRENGTH IS
R U L E 5

The objective of what we are after is not to buy low and to sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher, or to sell short low and to buy lower.

We can never know what price is really "low," nor what price is really "high." We can, however, have a modest chance at knowing what the trend is and acting on that trend. We can buy higher and we can sell higher still if the trend is up. Conversely, we can sell short at low prices and we can cover at lower prices if the trend is still down. However, we've no idea how high high is, nor how low low is.

Nortel went from approximately the split-adjusted price of $1 share back in the early 1980s, to just under $90/share in early 2000 and back to near $1 share by 2002 (where it has hovered ever since). On the way up, it looked expensive at $20, at $30, at $70, and at $85, and on the way down it may have looked inexpensive at $70, and $30, and $20--and even at $10 and $5. The lesson here is that we really cannot tell what is high and/or what is low, but when the trend becomes established, it can run far farther than the most optimistic or most pessimistic among us can foresee.
Have a good weekend.
__________________
"Most people don't lose because of what the market does but because of how they respond to the markets ... and how they handle losing trades." - From a review of "What I learned losing a Million Dollars" by Jim Paul and Brendan Moynihan.
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Old Nov 28, 2009, 1:07am   #882
 
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Replying to wprins' messages: first message

travis started this thread Replying as I read:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...tml#post990116

Reading what I wrote as quoted by you made me thing what a beautiful logical summary I made of everything I think on the subject. Logical, clear and coherent. But now I'll read why you disagree with it.

"Some people like writing, some people like teaching. Some people are in fact, good at trading, but get (maybe more) fulfillment from helping and teaching others". Oh yeah? Then why are they charging you money to feel the pleasure of writing, teaching, helping? You are proving my point again. I agree with you and therefore I mistrust those who are charging money to enjoy the pleasure of writing, teaching, helping.

"...a terribly good trader themselves". Hey, a trader is either profitable or unprofitable. I don't trust anyone selling me advice on how to trade, because it makes me suspect they're unprofitable traders, and therefore unable to sell me good advice.

"...in the area they coach in?" Once again, thanks for the example. You reminded me that in Italian soccer all coaches are former top soccer players, and the same applies in many other fields. Also, once again, I can't conceive how an unprofitable trader could coach a trader to become profitable, and how a profitable trader would charge anyone to coach them. He either coaches them for free, or he doesn't coach them. If he wants money, he can just trade. It's not like for a soccer coach who doesn't have the youth necessary to run after a ball anymore. You can trade at any age.

Thanks for the tip on NLP. You sound reasonable and intelligent and your arguments are logical, but they are not convincing, in the sense that you are not stating true facts in my opinion. Yes they may be true in some cases, but not in general and not in the field of trading. Or could we at least conclude that yes there are trading coaches getting paid who can also coach you to be profitable, but that the majority are charlatans? Can we agree on this?

About this Elder talk. I didn't mean to offend your favorite writer. But remember my favorite book on trading (one of two I read), "Reminiscences..." by Livermore. He was broke, and wasn't a good trader. He had elements of a good even excellent trader, but not everything needed. I also can write great posts, but I am not a profitable trader. I remember writing such good posts almost ten years ago, when I totally sucked, that some asked me for more advice, thinking I was a trading guru, and I had to tell "i am just reasoning out loud but I actually lose all my money every month". Some people can just write a great trading book - even me - just by saying what they shouoldn't be doing, just by saying everything they don't do. It would make sense, it would sound reasonable, but it would be almost worthless, because written by an unprofitable trader. I wouldn't trust it and that is why I always make sure to say to everyone what I do know and what I do not know, in order not to mislead people. I did some good work on automated systems, and I suck as a discretionary trader.

"...it would be a disservice to yourself to distrust anyone else writing on the topic of trading just because you cannot fathom why they might bother to do so...": this would be a good statement if reading a book wasn't as tiring as it is. But given how tiring it is, and given I can only read about one book per year, I won't read it unless I am totally confident that it's worth reading it. I'd rather spend that time talking to you or to real traders on msn, reasoning with you guys, rather than being taught by someone who may be an unprofitable trader. I trust much better a random trader on msn giving me signals and the rationale behind his trades, rather than a whole book by a famous author. From my experience all these teachers write way much more than it is needed. Like all professors. And in fact school totally sucks. And all schools should be abolished, because they have no reason to exist. They just answer questions I am not asking, and in order to support themselves have to make problems more complicated and give you answers you're not asking for. Much like book authors. A good trading method could be summarized in half a post, but since the author doesn't even know one, and he has to sell a whole book, he writes a lot of bull**** to fill up hundreds of pages. I despise and disrespect all those who pose as professors. Yes, sir. Knowledge is much easier, simpler and quicker than they paint it to be.

How about that. Lots of replying needed here.

"Reading bad books will sharpen your snake-oil spotting skills...". How do we spot a bad book, post, idea from a good one? Because they make sense to us, because they agree with what we were already thinking or because they don't. So if I read an author similar to me, who's also unprofitable, but who wrote the same things that I think I could very easily say "this guy is a genius", whereas he's just an unprofitable trader like me. The only thing I can trust is knowing he's profitable, or I might have better luck finding someone profitable on msn, and hearing what he has to suggest to me. Or even forums.

I hope you're not getting offended by my replies. They are direct and sincere and to the point. Of course I may sound arrogant, but how can you stop me from thinking that I am right? Your objections are well argumented and the best I could get but they still do not convince me. But thanks for taking the time to explain your objections clearly, logically and in detail.

"You *will* be wrong more times than most people feel comfortable with. But, this is not something to be avoided or be afraid of": I got no problem following your advice, after losing money for 12 straight years, and jumping into trades as I just made my first trade. I certainly don't think I am afraid of making mistakes.
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