my journal

This is a discussion on my journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; All right, coopster, you win. Subconsciously your message has kicked in, and I will now address your objections and adapt ...

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Old Nov 26, 2009, 11:27pm   #873
 
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Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread All right, coopster, you win. Subconsciously your message has kicked in, and I will now address your objections and adapt my system accordingly:
Quote:
All books on trading state "set stops before the trade" you don't seem to do it every time.
All books on trading state "Don't get emotionally involved" You are on the roller coaster every time.
All books on trading state "Know your risk:reward before you trade" You don't do it!
All books on trading state "The trend is your friend" - This is finally sinking in i think.
All books on trading state "choose one system and stick to it" You seem to flutter around from one to the next and modify the plan on an hourly basis based on one observation.
"Choose one system and stick to it". Don't worry: I am just modifying different versions of the same system not all over the place, but just to improve it. Let's not worry about that.

"The trend is your friend" is sinking in, as you said.

"Set stops before the trade": I will address that with a bracket order, to be used temporarily to address my potential lack of self-control. See below for modified version.

The bracket order will also take care of "set stops before the trade", and take care of emotions: if it works, my emotions are ok.

The last point I will address, the most important, is: "Know your risk:reward before you trade".

Yes, I will know my risk all right. The risk is 20 ticks, and the reward is 20 ticks, which is also implemented via the bracket order. Now you will object how often do you win? I will personally guarantee to you that I will win at least 50% of the times if I follow the intraday WITH trend system I told you about. So, everything is taken care of. Also the important fact that I want to trade a few times a day, because it provides the excitement my life is lacking.

Here it goes (forget about the overnight part, that's also applying your principles anyway):

NEW INTRADAY DISCRETIONARY SYSTEMS
ORDERS TO USE WHEN IN CONTROL
All orders "at market" for the WITH TREND system, only when you'll be in full control (no bracket, stoploss, trailing stop orders). Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market", and "S" for "sell 1 at market".
ORDERS TO USE WHEN NOT IN CONTROL
For at least one month, bracket orders of 20 ticks. Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order.
----------------------
CHARTS TO USE
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
Between 8 AM and 6 PM CET (with trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and if
1) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
2) the 15-period ma gets crossed
EXITS
Bracket order or:
Whenever you feel the move is over or if:
1) price re-crosses your entry ma (by a loss of 10 ticks at the most)
2) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
----------------------
Between 7 PM and 11 PM (against trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if
1) price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom,
2) we've been going down/up for more than 12/24 hours, and
3) we touch a pivot line (if there's no pivot line you can't trade)
EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM but place a take profit at 1 pivot level away

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 26, 2009 at 11:43pm.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 11:51pm   #874
Joined Jan 2005
Re: my journal

Hi Travis,

You are right, i am a polite but direct person and do not mean you any offense. Quite the contrary. You are not an idiot and i never meant to imply it.

I work hard for my money and do not throw it away lightly. I tend to calculate everything i spend into hours that i have had to work to pay for it. This makes me weigh up everything a bit too much i guess. I am learning not to think so much about trading where you are learning (i hope) to think more.

I do have the patience of a saint which makes the waiting part of trading easier and i can leave things alone until my target or stop is hit. These are always known before entering the trade.

Please do me a favour and read a money management book! Please! Read it in the bath, anywhere, just read one! Don't pick holes in the authors intentions, ignore that! The Dr Elder books are good in this respect even if you don't use his methods, the accounting side of what he says will keep you in the game long enough to overcome the other issues. I have it as PDF if you want it.

I am inspired by what you write and have slowly started getting away from the "pros" and going my own way. But only a little way away from it. The whole fact that technical analysis works is because so many people believe in it so going too far away from the norm is counterproductive i say. Its all about probabilities.

I am impressed that you have an automated system that works, well done. Why not just let it run and not even log on for a few days/weeks until some funds recouperate.

Anyway, i can't lecture you on what to do and not to do cos i am almost a complete newbie compared to you but i hope we can learn something from eachother. I have been comtemplating writng a journal of my own and think i will start as it seems to be helping you so why not me too?!

OK, i have said enough, good luck and trade well! I'll accept the friend request Travis, glad you didn't take my message the wrong way.

Coop
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 12:16am   #875
 
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Joined Mar 2003
Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Thank you for the very kind reply, introspective and intelligent.

Everyone seems to be kind here, even those arguing with me. Very strange.

Elder and the others... I don't know why they're selling their books - I mistrust them. If you want to teach people, why do you have to publish a book and not write on a forum? I've always wondered that. Ok, maybe Elder, but just him, and because of his name, doesn't know how to use computers. But the others... are not justified, especially those teaching courses, like Larry Williams and such... I mistrust them. If you are so good, you should have millions, and then why are you selling books and courses and so on? It doesn't make sense to me. And if you are not good, then you shouldn't be selling anything either. So nobody should be selling anything about how to trade.

Help each other? Of course, I'd like to trade together with you on msn if you want. So we can look at the market and decide together whether to make a trade or not. Any time. Private message me if you are interested in working on the above-mentioned system together. I think we could make money.

Regarding a journal, the "pro" is me, and i tell you this: you need a risk/reward ratio in your mind before starting a journal, like you have one for the trades you make. What do you stand to win and to lose? If you start it and then do not keep writing it, you'll feel bad about that journal you abandoned. Look at me, 800 posts. That's because I am obsessive-compulsive, bored, narcissistic and all that. It's part of my illness, so it basically doesn't cost me anything and actually it makes me feel better. But for the rest of us, a journal is too much work. Quit or paper trade the journal before you start it for real. You could keep a journal on your own for a month, and see if you can keep writing it. I tell you... I write here just as much as I'd write on my own journal. That's the secret... sincerity.
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 7:18am   #876
Joined Jan 2005
Re: my journal

Thanks for the honest advice Travis,

I think the reason that Elder and others write books is because most cannot trade themselves like you say but keep in mind that the internet and forums is not for everyone and the old paper and pen is all that they had when they started to write. I think some have just got so comfortable with trading that they do not get the excitement from it any more and want more human interaction from their day. Then, if they get a following from live seminars etc, they write a book to make more money off the back of it. Who wouldn't! Personally, if i can't relate to what an author is saying, i give up reading a book too. No point adopting a method/concept if it doesn't make sense in my own mind. I give them a fair chance though before i drop it.

As for the sharing trading thoughts, i am up for it but not sure how it will work. at this point in time. I am a very much a longer time frame trader and we have a bit of a time difference to chat live considering we both work during the day. Plus i think i need to learn to stand on my own 2 feet first before i join others with any form of confidence. I need to get consistently profitable before i consider myself ready for that. Nice offer though. Keep it open.

As for the journal, i think i would use it a a form of keeping myself in check like you. The journal will be a copy of what i write for my own records so it shouldn't be extra work except a couple of copy paste manoeuvres before i shut off my PC for the day. If i have no discipline to write a journal then i question the discipline to trade. (Another "Elderism" i'm afraid.) Good records = good trading.

I think once its documented and open for all to see, i can't lie to myself and say "I would have done that" or "i didn't do that on purpose". The whole world (or the single anon. reader) will not know otherwise. Plus i might meet some other interesting people along the way!

I will PM you when i am underway with the journal/trading system and we'll see what happens.

Anyway, i've crashed your journal enough. Keep it going, happy trading.

Coop
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 9:41am   #877
 
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Joined Mar 2003
Yamato started this thread Don't worry about the time difference. Maybe you think that I am in the States, but I am in Italy. In fact I am not a taxi driver nor a serial killer, and my name is not travis either. I am an Italian guy, and I'm working at a bank. Sorry about the misunderstanding. Travis is just the protagonist of my favorite movie, Taxi Driver. He's the one from the States.

Ok, let's postpone the work together.

Yeah, the suspect that they may not be trading, makes me not want to read any of these books.

A-ha.. keeping a journal to keep yourself in check, so your discipline is not as strong as I've been saying. You have temptations? Yes, I agree with your idea to write a journal, but the fact is: look at those 90% of journals started and abandoned after a few weeks.

Yes, good luck with everything. We'll be neighbors as journal writers.

I want to congratulate you on your new business and I'm sure you'll do very well and good luck to you, as long as your interests don't conflict with mine.

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 27, 2009 at 9:57am.
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 9:50am   #878
 
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Joined Mar 2003
Abolishing counter-trend top/bottom picking

Yamato started this thread What's ruined me, what's blown out my accounts in all these 12 years has always been top and bottom picking. It doesn't make sense to even allow the slightest top and bottom picking in my discretionary trading anymore.

This morning, an hour ago, I thought the GBP had fallen long enough and I went LONG on it. A few minutes ago when I last checked I was down another 800 dollars. It's time that I entirely abolish any remnant of my top and bottom picking. From now on, there'll be only pro-trend trades. Also my systems say that pro-trend works better. The intraday systems work better than the overnight ones.

PRICE DOES BOUNCE BUT ONLY IF THE RUBBER BAND DOESN'T BREAK DUE TO OVERSTRETCHING
But it's fair to say that at night reversals do happen, and you can make money with counter-trend trades. However, there's like an invisible rubber band attached to price, that makes it bounce when it's fallen all day long, but, beyond a given quantity of falling, that rubber band breaks, and you can't count price on bouncing any more. Whereas, when I trade, I totally disregard this detail (it's not easy to bear everything in mind when you do discretionary trading), that my systems have very clear: the range of the day. Actually, it's precisely "overstretching" that I've been looking for, to predict tops and bottoms, and it is the same overstretching that each time breaks the rubber band that should guarantee the bounce. The example is perfect: you stretch a rubber band, and it snaps back - you stretch it too much, it breaks, and there's free falling of price.

I have blown out my account endlessly in the past 12 years by doing top and bottom picking. Now I will entirely abolish it. It's official.

I CAN EXCLUDE PRO-TREND TRADES BY ANTICIPATING A BOUNCE, BUT NOT BET ON THE BOUNCE
From now on, my discretionary trading will not go LONG if the day is RED and will not go SHORT if the day is GREEN.

Yes, I may even rule out more trades, because of fearing a bounce, but I will not bet on price bouncing.

Here's what my new discretionary system looks like:

PRO-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
HOTKEYS
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order.
----------------------
CHARTS
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and if
1) time is between 9 AM and 6 PM CET
2) the 15-period ma gets crossed
3) your entry and your take profit are both 1/5th away from any pivot lines
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks

----
It's late and I came back from work (17.00 CET). I will modify my system in this same message (right after this sentence), so i can reply to wprins's messages in the next message after his. It will take me a while to reply to all he wrote: I will probably have to reply with calm tomorrow.
----

I came home and my equity was amazingly doing better than this morning. My crazy trade this morning didn't go that bad, because I actually was making money. I proceded to closing the trade. But it was a bad trade, against the trend, and hoping it would reverse, praying it would reverse, a Hail Mary trade, like all my trades.

I've been doing some thinking, and here's my new system:

PRO-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
HOTKEYS
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, "C" for "close position (to abort failed trades, or exit early).
----------------------
CHARTS
SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 DAYS OF 15-minutes CANDLES WITH PIVOTS and 15-period moving average
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
2_days_15_min_with_pivots_with_15-periods_ma.jpg
4_hours_1_min_with_15-periods_ma.jpg
----------------------
ENTRIES if:
1) the 15-period 15-minute ma is in favor
2) the 15-period 1-minute ma gets crossed by price (in favor)
3) your entry and your take profit are both 1/5th away from any pivot lines
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks. You can exit early if you wish, but not increase the distance of the stoploss.

------------------

It's 19.00 CET and I have to let everyone know that I am back at over 6k today. Not thanks to my method yet, but I think it will work in the future. Remember: I am planning to make it all back to 10k by next Friday, and then to keep going thanks to both my PRO-TREND system and intuition (because now that I am allowing myself to exit trade early, that is important). I'll answer to wprins' messages tomorrow, because my neighbouress invited me to dinner again, because I told her I lost almost all my money.

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 27, 2009 at 7:16pm.
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 5:01pm   #879
Joined Apr 2008
Re: my journal

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
... I don't know why they're selling their books - I mistrust them. If you want to teach people, why do you have to publish a book and not write on a forum? I've always wondered that. Ok, maybe Elder, but just him, and because of his name, doesn't know how to use computers. But the others... are not justified, especially those teaching courses, like Larry Williams and such... I mistrust them. If you are so good, you should have millions, and then why are you selling books and courses and so on? It doesn't make sense to me. And if you are not good, then you shouldn't be selling anything either. So nobody should be selling anything about how to trade.
With all due respect Travis, the flawed premise in your thinking is that for everyone it's all about the money. This is not neccesarily true, and for some it is not all about the money. Some people like writing, some people like teaching. Some people are in fact, good at trading, but get (maybe more) fulfillment from helping and teaching others.

If the only thing that drives you is money then you might find it hard to appreciate that there may be other things in life equally or more important to others, but this is nevertheless true.

In addition, it is often said that people who don't trade cannot coach or teach others to trade. Now, while it's ideal to be able to be mentored by a successful trader, it is not at all (I think) true to say that that neccesarily implies that it's impossible for someone to coach/teach someone to become a trader, even if that person is not themselves neccesarily a terribly good trader themselves.

To wit: How many coaches of top athletes are top atheletes themselves? How many coaches of anything for that matter, are also top in the area they coach in? The answer, not many at all, if any. But this causes no problem: the skills needed to understand how to be a top <xyz> is after all different from actually being a top <xyz>, and the skills needed to observer mistaked and teach others is again different from actually doing <xyz>.

Bandler and Grinder in their work on NLP (Neuro Linguistic Programming) did extensive research on this topic, which has to dow with how one might identify and extract (for a given area of excellence/expertise) what makes highly successful people actually succesful so as to then be able model it and then make it transferable/teachable to others. You might read up on NLP at some point.

As an aside, as for Elder specifically, as I recall, he does actually trade himself. Have you actually read his book "Come into my Trading room"? If you've read it and properly consider what he says, you should soon come to the conclusion that it's certainly not snake oil and there's a *lot* of useful ideas to try and to take out of it. Whether his techniques/approaches fits/suits your personality is a different matter of course, but it would be a disservice to yourself to distrust anyone else writing on the topic of trading just because you cannot fathom why they might bother to do so. Even reading bad books or failed experiments/failures are useful IMHO. To wit: Reading bad books will sharpen your snake-oil spotting skills and help you recognize snake-oil salesmen, whereas good books will help improve your knowledge/background, and failed experiments/failures teach us how _not_ to do things. All of which are really beneficial positives.

Anyway, I'll post again once I've read some of your other posts
So what am I saying? Don't be afraid to read books by Elder (or whoever else), as Elbert Hubbard once said "the biggest mistake in life is continually fearing that you'll make one", this is especially true in trading because you *will* have losing trades. You *will* be wrong more times than most people feel comfortable with. But, this is not something to be avoided or be afraid of.
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Old Nov 27, 2009, 5:24pm   #880
Joined Apr 2008
Re: my journal

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
I am honored that you've been a member for over a year, wrote only 14 posts and most of them on my journal. That's like my highest achievement so far, as far as the journal goes. It's like the best compliment I could ever receive from anyone.
I'm glad that it means something to you. I would hate if my time/energy spent here was totally wasted. I guess I just like interacting with others and helping them. (The golden rule and all that.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
I am sorry you joined the club. We have very similar problems. Everything you say applies to me (not clear entries nor exits, etc.). What do you think of my last system (above)? Don't you think we could work on it together? Or do you trade different markets? Do you have any objections? Does it suck so badly that you won't even reply to my proposal?
Well. Firstly just to note, I've only *very* cursorily considered it so far, so I have very little of an opinion on it. What I do like about it is that it's simple. Simple is better in this game, but like Einstein said, "Make it as simple as possible, but no simpler." Without testing it however, I have no idea whether it will actually work. I'll need to ask you a few questions about it to try and better understand what the idea/trading concept behind it is and why it works, and when it works, and what markets. (Apologies if you've already meantioned this in previous posts and I've not noticed them -- I've not read all the posts describing the system.)

I wouldn't be against working on it with you no, albeit, I'm also working on my own system at the minute, and having a bit of trouble finding enough time apart from my day job to commit to properly testing and developing that. So, with the caveat that the process is not going to be lightning fast as I'm unfortunately time starved, I'm nevertheless quite happy to get involved and find it quite a compliment that someone with 12 years of market exposure experience would want my input. As for markets I trade, I trade in relatively small scale spot forex for the most part, also looking into ETF's and large volume stocks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
It seems to have very clear as far as entries and exits. I wonder if it'll really take me to 10k from 5k I am at right now.
Attachment 69586

Today I had a take profit at 1.5047, and it got down to 1.5052. It sucks. I hope it will hit my take profit in the near future.
How much testing/back testing have you done using this system? What expectancy do you have of this system using the rules you describe?

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
I don't know about you but my whole problem until now has been that I don't want to go with the trend, but only against the trend, and that I don't use stoplosses. I have enough knowledge to be profitable. 12 years of observing the markets is enough.
Yes... the trend really is your friend. Amazing how hard it is however, to just follow the trend eh?

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
No, I don't have enough knowledge until I'll be profitable. I want to be profitable, and if I am not, it's because there's something that i've been missing until now. Maybe knowledge of myself.
That yes, perhaps, and also perhaps (?) not enough knowledge of your trading systems?

I'll have a closer look at your system rules over the weekend etc. Have a good weekend.
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