my journal

This is a discussion on my journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; ...

Closed Thread
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Nov 20, 2009, 8:24pm   #743
travis's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
travis started this thread
travis is offline  
Old Nov 20, 2009, 8:26pm   #744
travis's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
travis started this thread
travis is offline  
Old Nov 20, 2009, 8:28pm   #745
travis's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
travis started this thread
travis is offline  
Old Nov 20, 2009, 8:30pm   #746
travis's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
travis started this thread
travis is offline  
Old Nov 21, 2009, 2:55am   #747
travis's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
travis started this thread Lying in bed. Listening to the Norah Jones videos I posted, this beautiful girl. Over and over again. Quiet peaceful music, if it weren't for the idiots clapping and yelling.

Came back from dinner at my neighbouress, as usual. I fell asleep on her couch as usual while watching tv. This is my social life.

I overate as usual and now I have a stomachache that keeps me from sleeping.

Norah Jones is perfect for writing. It gives you the perfect pace. Especially this song, "you'll be on my mind... forever". Don't why I didn't come. I don't even know what the words mean, but it sounds good.

Battery only at 50% but that means over four hours to go. I can take my time writing and digesting before having to go to sleep because my batteries ran out.

People are trouble. Mp3s and movies are good. I can turn people on and off as I wish. MSN is good. I can block people, i can stay disconnected. Real people unless really polite and sensitive are trouble. Today a colleague told me "why don't you come visit me more often? For a cigarette break and we could talk about politics as we used to do...". I said, spontaneously, "People are trouble. I stay out of trouble".

My command of english sucks. I wish I could express more. But I don't wish it so much that I would read anything to learn more.

This one's pretty good, too. Let's see if I can hear some words of it... by Norah Jones...

Baby I didn't mean to hurt you...

It never rains when you want it to... you humble me... you humble me, lord...

It's interesting to hear this young girl sing about such topics as "i heard you kicked the bottle", when she hasn't experienced any of this stuff probably... maybe someone wrote it for her. Anyway she's a good person so I am glad she was successful. All artists are good people. Good people are people I like, people who don't hurt me. Sensitive people. Intelligent people. I am afraid of the other folks.

The loud people, the crowds, the rude people. Norah Jones is my kind of people. The people clapping at her are not. Clapping is a wild beast's expression of approval. We should stop clapping and acting like monkeys.

Surprise, surprise
Never something I could hide
When I see we made it through another day

And I say hooooo, oooooo, oooooo, oooooo
hooooo, oooooo, oooooo, oooooo
hooooo, oooooo, oooooo, oooooo
Do you?
Still pretty bad stomachache. I stay away from the loud people and from the crowds by not going to soccer games of course, by not going to weddings of course. I don't mind funerals at all. Those are quiet. I stay away from clapping people by not going to concerts or theaters or the opera, of course. I stay home. I keep people coming here under control. I monitor everything in the house. I don't open windows. "Come in with the milk" kind of lifestyle.

Round 'n round
Has got you under its spell
Moving so fast...but
Going nowhere

Up 'n down
Ferris wheel
Tell me how does it feel
To be so high...
Looking down here

Is it lonely?

Did the clown
Make you smile
He was only your fool for a while
Now he's gone back home
And left you wandering there

Is it lonely?

She's got this in common with Simon & Garfunkel - something similar in her music and performance (that I can't describe because I am no expert) and the fact that she sounds in concert very close to her recordings. Nice quiet music... Oh no, people clapping again. Animals.

I met my old lover on the street last night. She seemed so glad to see me I just smiled. And we talked about some old times and we drank ourselves some beers, still crazy after all these years. Still crazy after all these years.

I’m not the kind of man who tends to socialize, I seem to lean on old familiar ways. And I ain’t no fool for love songs that whisper in my ears. Still crazy after all these years.Still crazy after all these years.

Four in the morning
Crapped out
Longing my life away
I’ll never worry
Why should I?
It’s all gonna fade

Now I sit by my window
And I watch the cars
I fear I’ll do some damage
One fine day
But I would not be convicted
By a jury of my peers
Still Crazy
Still Crazy
Still Crazy after all these years
Still digesting after all these hours.

Last edited by travis; Nov 21, 2009 at 3:50am.
travis is offline  
Old Nov 21, 2009, 12:11pm   #748
travis's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
travis started this thread GOOD! FINALLY SOME SERIOUS DRAWDOWN...
Weighbridge was right, or whoever said it, that my forward testing drawdown, as time went by, would have increased to weeks of drawdown and then to even one month of drawdown. It was a reasonable prediction: more time, more events happening. (Even if your systems were crappy, if you've forward-tested it for less than a month, how are you going to have a whole month of drawdown?). This week was my second straight drawdown week. Overall, last week I've lost 5500 and the previous one 1000. So, after 18 weeks of forward tests on my dozens of systems I have gotten 4 red weeks so far, giving me exactly one red week per month on average. But now, these two combined weeks are giving a negative balance for November. I am glad my system is not infallible after all. It seemed too good to be true. Now my system is more human, but it still makes money.

Still, this is nothing. Lost 3500 so far for the month of November. And next week I'll probably recover from it. I have yet to see a red month in my forward testing. What I had not seen until today was two straight red weeks. Now my biggest drawdown in terms of dollars is this two week long 6500 loss.

Now you know why I say that I can't trade my systems with just 10k. Had I traded all of them in the past two weeks now I'd be at 4k instead of being at about 10k. I do not regret using a tight money management which didn't allow the worst systems to trade, although I did lose money for the week even just trading my "good" systems.

Also, interestingly, as the weeks roll by, and as the systems increase in number, the day of the week's profitabiliy (see picture below) tends to even out and to change, meaning that I can't really rely on it too much, at least now that I have all these systems. I used to have unprofitable trading on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons. Now this has changed, also thanks to Weighbridge, who advised me to change the formula from total loss on a given time zone to average loss per trade on a given time zone, which makes more sense. Now the bad time zones are... just Tuesday afternoon pretty much, and that might change and disappear as well.


Last edited by travis; Nov 21, 2009 at 12:36pm.
travis is offline  
Old Nov 22, 2009, 7:17pm   #749
travis's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
travis started this thread REASONING ON PIVOTS

A friend of mine told me to use pivots. I had always thought they sucked, but today I looked at them, and they seem to work, at least on the EUR. Daily pivots I mean. Now I am thinking of a way to exit and other things...

I am already pretty good at picking entries and pivots are going to make my entries that much more accurate. My mistake until today was that in those bad entries I made, I lost everything. Now with pivots I can be confident that I'll be right and use tighter stops (actually I didn't use any stops before), that will probably almost never be reached.

My entries tend to be late in the day, when chances for reversals increase, especially in highly overstretched days. Now adding pivots to this is just perfect because they alos have a lot to do with predicting reversals.

Pivots work simply because some people follow them. If some people follow them, then more people will follow them because even if they don't believe in pivots, they don't want to be screwed by those who believe in them and act according to them. So these other people, non-believers, will still take a look at them and act accordingly. So ultimately they just work. Because the reversals will take place, and even those like me who thought they sucked are going to have to admit a reversal took place and act accordingly (though they won't even now that they are entering where the pivot is).

By the way, I just looked at the GBP, and they don't seem to work there. So, once and for all, my market will be just the EUR. Let's focus on that alone.


Now if pivots work everything changes also for exits, because markets do not move in a trend anymore but rather in a trend from pivot to pivot. So we can't use a trailing stop, which would be best with a regular trend. Also because i noticed that sometimes prices come back before really taking off. So forget trailing, especially until the trend bouncing off the pivot point hasn't taken off.

Then, now that the trailing stop is ruled out, what stop do we use? That is simple. Since we're not using a trailing stop, we're going to need a stoploss, a fixed one. I'll place that about 40 ticks below my entry, which should be at the pivot point.

We still need an exit for when the trade works out. A take profit would come to mind, at the next pivot level. But that is not good either because we don't want to cut our profits.

So how do we exit? Sizable profit? That's an emotional take profit... ok, I got it. I will implement a trailing stop only after a sizable gain is in place, in other words, I will enter a traling stop only after the market has taken off.... naw... this is too complicated.

I will implement a very very wide trailing profit from the start. So that it will unlikely go off if the market comes back, and it will be good to let the market move around as much as it wants during both the early phase and the later phases of the move. I'll use 50 ticks. This way, since the market will most likely go my way at the start, if my trade goes badly, I'll lose maybe 30 ticks. And if my trade goes well, I'll make 200 ticks. Then all I have to worry about is that I predict correctly at least one trade every 5. Yes, I'll be looking for 200 ticks moves. But especially I don't plan on being wrong more than 50% of the time. All done. Hopefully this new method will take me from unprofitability to profitability and I'll finally see my capital increase to 20k, which I need for my systems.

It always goes up and down a few times before taking off, like the Wright brothers airplanes. So I will let it do whatever it wants at the start and then activate a trailing stop, once I am making at least 500 dollars and I am a few hours into the trade. That's good also because it will allow me to have a tighter stop. Now I wonder if I can do such a thing on TWS. It's going to be hard.

Damn, if this system will work, I'm gonna have to automate it, too. What a pain in the ass...

Last edited by travis; Nov 22, 2009 at 8:12pm.
travis is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Another Journal... trader_dante Trading Journals 25 Sep 19, 2010 10:43am
My little journal. HaloTrader Trading Journals 16 Jun 26, 2009 1:02am
The EA Journal! Victor90 Trading Journals 1 Oct 28, 2008 1:47am

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)