my journal

This is a discussion on my journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; http://en.mimi.hu/stockmarket/trading_range.html Maybe I could predict ranges by using volume. I noticed that during holidays and such, there's ranges, and yet ...

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Old Dec 16, 2009, 6:51pm   #1561
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread http://en.mimi.hu/stockmarket/trading_range.html

Maybe I could predict ranges by using volume. I noticed that during holidays and such, there's ranges, and yet there is also low volume, so maybe a high volume is a guarantee that there won't be a range. But volume can be predicted by - since I start trading at 3.00 PM CET - by how much volume there's been until 3.00 PM.

So rather than what the range has been until then, I should use how much volume there's been until then. As simple as that.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 6:56pm   #1562
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread I mean yes, of course volume is also a function of how the market moves, and if it's moving a lot it will attract a lot of people. But trend and range might also be a function of how many people there are, just like the noise in a restaurant is a function of how many people there are. And the reaction of a crowd is a function of how many people there are. One person is usually calm. A crowd is not as calm.

So maybe I should set a minimum volume at 3 PM CET in order to allow my system to trade. A minimum volume and a minimum range. Yes. Let's do this. And I can also test this quite easily.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 7:06pm   #1563
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread From the link two posts above, this article caught my attention, but I read it and it seems too complicated and therefore I don't like it.

http://english.borsanaliz.com/aroon.shtml

This reminds of when wprins once said to me (it was either him, einstein or another reader), "you should make things as simple as possible but not any simpler". So maybe this is the case now: I am expecting to have an indicator of an upcoming trend and range and to be easy and simple at the same time, and maybe this indicator can only be so much simple.

But since I cannot stand formulas... i can't deal with this aroon, and not even with stochastics, all thanks to the ****ing diaz brothers, who were the crappiest math and science teachers ever.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 7:14pm   #1564
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Maybe volume is meaningless, or maybe I could measure range and trend by measuring how often bid-ask differences exceed x value. I could apply that macro not to the ES but to the EUR, and that might tell me how much tension there is in the air, or if only love is in the air.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 7:16pm   #1565
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Oh ok... news in the air. I forgot. When there's news the markets stop and sit in a range for hours. So I should not trade while there's news awaiting, because that by itself totally predicts when there will be a range (ahead of the news).

Like today. News was in the air, i mean really scheduled to be released at a given time. And the markets were in a range because of that.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 7:17pm   #1566
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Position got closed. Lost 1000 today.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 7:36pm   #1567
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread I am gambling like a mad man, trying to make it all back. Last famous words just yesterday: "I am healed from gambling".
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 7:57pm   #1568
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Ok, ok... didn't recover from the loss and still have 1 contract open.

I am going to be quiet for a few days... ehm.. hours.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 8:27pm   #1569
 
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Switching back into journal trading mode but with no pictures

Yamato started this thread Screw this. I am going to have to come back and post my trades beginning tomorrow, just as I did until now. One last night of gambling and staying LONG on 1 contract because I want to make it all back. Tomorrow, usual trades here live... with a slightly changed system:

RULES
ENTRIES can be made if:
1) you sense trend (high volume/range, no news to wait for, we've touched at least 2 pivot lines, etc.)
2) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
3) your entry and your take profit are > 10 ticks away from any pivot lines or any 0.0100s levels if beyond S2 or R2
4) you're checking "correlated" chart for exact timing of entry
5) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
6) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks.

I will be disciplined as usual (when I trade on the journal), but I will not be taking any more snapshot of the trades, nor posting prices of entry/exit, because it is way too tiring and it made me wanna stop trading live on the journal.

So, see you tomorrow, but without any charts.

I will just do what's strictly necessary to be disciplined. No charts, no list of trades made. The readers will have to trust me if I'll ever mention trades and stuff, by saying "it went well" or "it didn't go well". No more charts, lists and similar. Too tiring. But discipline yes. And thoughts going on in my mind yes. Because that is good for my trading.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 9:13pm   #1570
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Something in my trading has gotten better. I just sent a limit order (only 2 ticks away) to close my gambling overnight position, because I am getting away with a small loss, and because I have grown more disgusted than ever with my having open gambling positions. And since I can close it with a small loss, I'd rather do it than keeping it open and hoping.

I have grown disgusted with my hoping mode.

I also have learned during these weeks that there's other ways for me to make money with discretionary trading: not necessarily gambling (trading without a stoploss and without an entry plan). I have developed some confidence that i can actually make money over time with my pro-trend system.

I am disgusted with my gambling more than i used to be back in September 2009 when I started this journal.

Back then I used to only be disgusted with my gambling when I lost 2000 dollars on one trade. Now I get disgusted simply by relapsing. Even if I don't lose anything.

It's one step ahead.

On the other hand, I could never see myself still writing this journal in one year and still gambling like I've been until now. This means two things: since gambling can be stopped, I can either terminate it or I can terminate the journal. But since stopping the journal would be first of all like giving up in front of everyone and second of all disappointing the readers and almost lying to the readers ("I am quitting but I won't tell you what I'll do afterwards..."), then I definitely could never quit the journal, at least not until I've solved all psychology-related trading problems. Not until I've learned to be profitable. So I see this journal as a way of forcing myself to succeed, in stopping the gambling and becoming profitable, since I have no other choice.

I can't stop the journal, and I can't keep on gambling live in front of the readers for a whole year. So I have no choice and as a consequence I am improving: the process has already started.

I have become more and more conscious of my problem, and I've been getting closer and closer to finding solutions.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 9:29pm   #1571
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread All right!

The gambling trade got closed with my limit order, and I am now gambling-free and have been without gambling for already a few... minutes.

Number two: the ZN made some 300 dollars today. I told you that my systems are good.

Number three: the market depth analysis was good. Right where I got a huge and repeated over time negative difference, there was a big resistance, from which the markets today only went down. We'll see if it'll do it again in the future. If it does, then I've got a fourth system. I know how ridiculous it sounds: he has 50 systems and hasn't made any money in the past 12 years. But you know, it's as I were building cathedrals on mud... the key ingredients are missing but I have gotten good at building cathedrals, even if they fall down all the time. The ingredients are money and money management.

Without money, you're constantly and unconsciously pushed to not follow any money management.

Think about it. Investing 1% of your capital... all those famous money management rules. Think about how easy they are if you have a million, and how impossible they are if you have 5000 dollars.

And if you have a million, maybe you don't even have to work a job. But if you have a job you don't like (I don't like any jobs), then that's an extra pressure to neglect money management.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 9:32pm   #1572
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Identifying trends and stuff

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
I lost control and I went against the trend, long again, and this time totally against the trend, with 2 contracts, with this sentence echoing in my mind: "I want my money back".
Classic revenge trade. Part of becoming a successful trader is being able to sit on your hands or walk away and not act on such impluses which almost always ends badly. And I say that as someone who also still is learning that lesson...

You need to add a rule to your trading plan. Maybe something like: If at any point I have 2 consecutive losses on a day, or if my loss reaches x amount (say $500) then I switch the computer off and are not allowed to switch it back on until the next day since clearly I'm out of sync with the market and my system is not performing. Then, when the next day rolls round and you've regained your emotional control you reasses and take 2 more trades, following your system. Etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
Now those two LONG trades are open, because today was a range today, and basically you get screwed if you follow the moving averages because you go with a trend that doesn't exist, and so each time you lose. Had I followed the system 100% today, I would have lost on both trades.

Let me know if you have any idea on how to discern range from trend days (which is basically the secret to making money all the time), at least approximately.

One way I could think is range, in the sense of high minus low. If it's a high range, then it should be trend, and viceversa. But you only find out it was a high range once the trend has happened, at the end of the day. I don't know.

Anyway, today big disappointment from myself. I don't know if I'll come back and type about all my trades again or if I'll manage to be disciplined on my own. I was tired of having to write everything down and having to take pictures.
My sympathies Travis, Trading is hard work, but keep at it. You're making lots of progress.

Well, interesting you should ask about discerning trend. As I mentioned the other day I started reading Bill William's book. His system seems to contain many elements of my own trading system, or maybe I should say the one I'm making my own that I'm being mentored on and using as a basis for my own system.

So, as a suggestion, how about you look into the ideas behind Bill's so called "Alligator" and "Fractals"? to help filter your trades?

His approach fistly involves the 3 MA's which represents an alligator to model what the market is doing, namely either sleeping (ranging/flat) with mouth closed (MA's closed/intertwining/close to each other) or waking up and opening it's mouth to eat bear or bull meat. (Not sure I'm 100% keen on the metaphor but there you go ) Obviuosly you don't enter when the MA's are criss crossing or close to each other (or moving closer to each other.)

Secondly he uses price "fractals" which basically uses the wave like movements of the market to identify levels of support and resistance which become possible points of entries and stops depending on where they occur with respect to the alligator's lips/mouth (e.g. relative to the 3 MA's.)

Anyway there's potentially a lot else to say, but suffice for me to suggest at this point that perhaps it's an idea for you to try and get a hold of the "New Dimensions" book by Bill and see what ideas you can take from it. I'd be happy to discuss and help develop these ideas here particularly since as I say, they/it relates closely to several elements of my own system and so such discussions should be useful/insightful for me as well and should help motivate/interest me.

Cheers

Walter
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Last edited by wprins; Dec 16, 2009 at 9:38pm.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 9:52pm   #1573
 
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Re: Identifying trends and stuff

Yamato started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by wprins View Post
Classic revenge trade. Part of becoming a successful trader is being able to sit on your hands or walk away and not act on such impluses which almost always ends badly. And I say that as someone who also still is learning that lesson...

You need to add a rule to your trading plan. Maybe something like: If at any point I have 2 consecutive losses on a day, or if my loss reaches x amount (say $500) then I switch the computer off and are not allowed to switch it back on until the next day since clearly I'm out of sync with the market and my system is not performing. Then, when the next day rolls round and you've regained your emotional control you reasses and take 2 more trades, following your system. Etc.



My sympathies Travis, Trading is hard work, but keep at it. You're making lots of progress.

Well, interesting you should ask about discerning trend. As I mentioned the other day I started reading Bill William's book. His system seems to contain many elements of my own trading system, or maybe I should say the one I'm making my own that I'm being mentored on and using as a basis for my own system.

So, as a suggestion, how about you look into the ideas behind Bill's so called "Alligator" and "Fractals"? to help filter your trades?

His approach fistly involves the 3 MA's which represents an alligator to model what the market is doing, namely either sleeping (ranging/flat) with mouth closed (MA's closed/intertwining/close to each other) or waking up and opening it's mouth to eat bear or bull meat. (Not sure I'm 100% keen on the metaphor but there you go ) Obviuosly you don't enter when the MA's are criss crossing or close to each other (or moving closer to each other.)

Secondly he uses price "fractals" which basically uses the wave like movements of the market to identify levels of support and resistance which become possible points of entries and stops depending on where they occur with respect to the alligator's lips/mouth (e.g. relative to the 3 MA's.)

Anyway there's potentially a lot else to say, but suffice for me to suggest at this point that perhaps it's an idea for you to try and get a hold of the "New Dimensions" book by Bill and see what ideas you can take from it. I'd be happy to discuss and help develop these ideas here particularly since as I say, they/it relates closely to several elements of my own system and so such discussions should be useful/insightful for me as well and should help motivate/interest me.

Cheers

Walter
Thanks for your thoughtful message. As usual.

Premise:
As you will read my reply, don't forget I am quite frustrated from today's trading and that I'm hyperactive and with a short attention span as usual, so don't be offended if I look down on the books or concepts that you are kindly suggesting to me. I hope the other readers appreciate them more than I can.


Ok, answering as I read.

Just a few minutes ago, I've thought of adding that "stop trading as soon as you have a loss" rule, but it doesn't make sense rationally, because the second trade, if your system is almost entirely mechanical (but manually executed), should be as good as the first. And if the rules are univocal, then... ok, I'll add the goddamn rule. No, I won't. You see: I can't give myself too many rules or I'll break them because I am a rebel. So the rule number one is "only create as many rules as you can follow without turning into a rebel".

Are you kidding me? "Fractals" to me sounds like "things I don't understand", so I can't use anything that I don' t fully understand in my trading. Tell me "up" and "down", "high" and "low", but don't give me any formulas as requirements. I can only go as far as sums, subtractions, and those other two things.. division and the other one.

Alligator eating bulls and bears... yes. Too violent. It won't work for me. But when you tell me about moving averages... now you're talking to me baby! That I like! Keep it coming! And if you tell me what the moving averages are... then I'll even check them out on the chart. Talk to me simple please. You want to go on with me, you say it. You don't, you make your moves.

Quote:
I never ****ed anybody over in my life didn't have it coming to them. You got that? All I have in this world is my balls and my word and I don't break them for no one. Do you understand? That piece of **** up there, I never liked him, I never trusted him. For all I know he had me set up and had my friend Angel Fernandez killed. But that's history. I'm here, he's not. Do you wanna go on with me, you say it. You don't, then you make a move.
I go blank when you say the word "fractals". It's a term I don't control. It reminds me of something you fry and eat, it's like a sweet.

I go blank when you talk to me about reading a whole book. The title is not enough. The preface not enough even? I am... don't forget english is not my first language, and that I hold a grudge against all academics and writers, and people posing as teachers.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 10:03pm   #1574
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread One thing we could do to make things easier for me is we meet here before my trading starts, and you tell if there's going to be trend or not, and why you think that - only as long as you reason is simple. Using such terms as: up, down, moving average, low, high. And price. No trendlines because I don't trust those.
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Old Dec 16, 2009, 10:42pm   #1575
Joined Apr 2008
Re: my journal

BTW, Here's perhaps a good post/thread to read on the risks of ruin in trading (e.g. forgetting that we as traders are, first and foremost, risk managers.)
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Last edited by wprins; Dec 16, 2009 at 11:01pm.
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