attempting ES futures

This is a discussion on attempting ES futures within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by timsk Hi pb, I have a couple of suggestions for you to consider. In my experience, the ...

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Old Sep 3, 2011, 11:35am   #16
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

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Originally Posted by timsk View Post
Hi pb,
I have a couple of suggestions for you to consider. In my experience, the ES is a very unforgiving instrument and it doesn't give you much room for manoeuvre. By that I mean it pretty well constantly flickers up and down 2-3 ticks at any given time. By contrast, the YM moves more cleanly as it trades 2.5 ticks for every 1 tick of the ES. Therefore. if you get your timing right, your trade can be 'on side' to the tune of 5-8 ticks with a stop in place at break even - so that if it snaps back (very likely) you'll at least get out without a loss. Alternatively, if the moves don't have much (any) follow through - you can take your 5 tick profit. It's much smoother and cleaner than the ES and, in this regard, it's more forgiving. If this doesn't make much sense to you - put up a chart of the YM next to the ES and contrast and compare the two. You should quickly see what I mean.

You mentioned 'secrets' that only the select few cognoscenti know about. It's possible I suppose - but not very likely. That said, I think most traders have tools and techniques they wouldn't be without, which other traders may or may not find useful. So, not a secret as such - but definitely a key component of their edge - assuming they have one. For me, it's $TICK. I simply couldn't (and wouldn't) trade without it. Study the relationship between futures and equities and note which is strongest at any given time. In the main, the futures lead equities. However, neither will go very far without the other. If you can interpret the tug-o'-war between them and spot when they are 'in sync' - then trading in the right direction will not be too much of a problem. Then it's a question of timing your entries with an appropriate stop which is a tougher gig. On that front, I'd recommend you look at non-time based charts: tick, constant volume, Point & Figure and Renko etc. My trading moved on leaps and bounds when I made the transition.
Tim.
Cheers Tim.
All things to think about, and some of which I had already been contemplating, in fact.
In particular investigating the TICK and possibly looking at the YM.
I've played around with constant volume charts and tick charts with not much luck, but may re-visit them in the future.
In my experience, moving the stop to BE seems to just keep me losing out on potential gains. When I was demo trading it would always give me 2-3 ES points profit, and then stop me at BE, and then go even further in the anticipated direction.

I've also been thinking alot about risk:reward, stops, targets etc.
Of my 40 odd trades made so far, about 30 of them have offered me anywhere from 1-3 points profit before being stopped. It's tempting me to trade with a negative risk:reward ratio based on having a high hit rate, but im just not sure that the idea sits comfortably with me. Just a few wrong trades would eat up so many of my points gained.

I've still got lots of little things that I want to try.

I shall probably be implementing some new concepts/ideas with the ES that id already been contemplating next week.


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Originally Posted by pboyles View Post
I would say you are 100% correct.
Concerning
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Old Sep 3, 2011, 7:06pm   #17
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Re: attempting ES futures

Hi pb - more thoughts on your thoughts . . .
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Originally Posted by piggybridges View Post
In my experience, moving the stop to BE seems to just keep me losing out on potential gains. When I was demo trading it would always give me 2-3 ES points profit, and then stop me at BE, and then go even further in the anticipated direction.
With the ES then yes, I agree with you completely. Less so with the YM. If you trade 2 contracts which, at $5.00 a pop is still $2.00 less than a single ES contract, you have the option of closing the whole trade at +5 to +8 (for an equivalent 2-3 tick move in the ES), or closing one contract and letting the other run and moving your stop to b/e etc. The point is that you have options in the way that you don't have when trading the ES! Admitedly, this says more about me and my skills (or lack of them) than it does about the ES, nonetheless, I find the YM much easier to trade for quick gains. Have a look at it and try your methodology on demo. My money is that your bottom line will be much healthier at the end of the day, even allowing for the (relative) increased cost in commissions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by piggybridges View Post
I've also been thinking alot about risk:reward, stops, targets etc.
Of my 40 odd trades made so far, about 30 of them have offered me anywhere from 1-3 points profit before being stopped. It's tempting me to trade with a negative risk:reward ratio based on having a high hit rate, but im just not sure that the idea sits comfortably with me. Just a few wrong trades would eat up so many of my points gained.
Again, this is easier to cope with trading the YM, IMO. If you trade a P&F 3x1 chart, your stops could be as little as 4 ticks on the basis that if price moves against you enough to register a 3 box reversal - then the trade is probably a dud and it's best to exit. If you're not familiar with P&F charts - there's loads about them on the interweb and a handful of excellent articles right here on T2W - starting with this one:
Point and Figure Charting: Part 1 - The Basics
Tim.
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Old Sep 6, 2011, 6:15pm   #18
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

piggybridges started this thread I have to go out now to drink beer, but a smallish winning day today.
Market kind of behaved for once.

+$180 ish
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Old Sep 6, 2011, 10:51pm   #19
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

piggybridges started this thread +$180.70

Winning day at last, but nothing to get excited about.
I actually did change to a slightly new method today, but it's likely just coincidence.
Cant lose every single day no matter how bad you are, and a winning day had to happen eventually.

On to tomorrow....
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Old Sep 7, 2011, 7:19pm   #20
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

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Old Sep 7, 2011, 7:49pm   #21
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

piggybridges started this thread Cheers.
Interesting about incorporating other markets.
My best winning trade today was actually when someone I know posted a chart of the NQ which I dont usually look at. When looking at their chart I noticed one of the patterns that I like, although when i flipped back to my charts, it wasn't anything like as clear on my ES chart which I usually monitor.
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Old Sep 7, 2011, 7:54pm   #22
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

piggybridges started this thread short 1196.75
3 point stop

counter trend, but.....
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Old Sep 7, 2011, 8:28pm   #23
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

piggybridges started this thread out for +2.5
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Old Sep 7, 2011, 9:26pm   #24
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

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out for +2.5
so +220 ish on the day
on to tomorrow
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Old Sep 8, 2011, 6:34pm   #25
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

piggybridges started this thread -$160.22
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Old Sep 9, 2011, 11:52am   #26
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

piggybridges started this thread $474.56

Best winning day so far.
Traded other instruments instead of the ES today.
Coincidence?.....probably.
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Old Sep 9, 2011, 7:14pm   #27
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

piggybridges started this thread RECAP:
So, 9 days in now; 7 trading sessions.

Daily Results so far:
-215.88
-156.8
-57.94
180.7
97.74
-160.22
474.56

TOTAL PNL = +$162.16
STARTING BALANCE $8000
CURRENT BALANCE $8162.16

Im somehow slightly UP so far on my initial balance. Not really sure how. Today certainly helped alot. Does feel quite random and each trade feels like a coin toss in terms of the actual outcome, despite my various analysis. I done alot better in demo, but maybe I just had a lucky spell.

The fact that today was my best day, (and I didn't touch the ES) may or may not be a coincidence, but, despite the name of the journal being 'attempting to trade ES futures', I intend to trade other instruments (and NOT the ES) for the next week at least, just to see how things go.

Any genuine profitable traders (assuming they exist!) are always welcome to thrown genuine pearls of wisdom my way, particularly related to method/strategy.
People often talk about trading being all about the mental and psychological aspect and that system/method being overrated. At this point I disagree. I feel I have the mental side under lockdown. I can take losses like a robot and can stick to my rules too, but if the method plain 'doesn't work' then I think it's always gonna end in tears.
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Old Sep 9, 2011, 9:53pm   #28
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

Hey piggy, you mentioned you traded a different contract besides the ES, what was it?
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Old Sep 9, 2011, 10:01pm   #29
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

piggybridges started this thread Today was mainly:
6b (GBP/USD) and CL (Crude oil)
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Old Sep 12, 2011, 2:47pm   #30
 
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Re: attempting ES futures

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1 ES trade, 2 oil trades.
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