swingin' the ftse: 2008

And we start the year with.................

monthly timeframe - still looking bullish despite the volatility of the last half of 2007 and the rejection so far of the 6951 all-time high.

weekly time frame - has a ranging look about it twixt 6000 and 6750. On the downside 6000 looks a key number with several visits and breaches of it last year, although no weekly close below that level to confirm any breach.

daily time frame - our trading timeframe. The year starts with the swing trend UP. Remember that the swing trend is an assumed trend based on confirmed* breaks of swing highs/lows.

* Some will not wait for confirmation and will trade the break itself, others will hold off trading until the first reaction, still others not until they have seen some confirmation (their own methods) of the trend change.

There was a long signal on 20 December and an entry at around 6322 which is still running. Today may give us a third bar of reaction and a potential swing low (I'll post it later if it comes) with possible opportunity to add to the initial position.

Good trading

jon

Just want to add a little postscript to Jon's comments with an observation about volume. In spite of the recent volatility, volume has steadily dropped off in a gradual decline since September last year. If the bulls are to mount a serious assault on the 2007 highs, I would want and expect to see this trend reversing.
Tim.

ugh one day in and already trouble appears.

We got our third lower low and potential swing low (thick blue line) BUT after making a higher high before afternoon tumble as US weakness kicked in. Not tradeable as it stands imo and will be looking for a bit further down tomorrow - not beyond around 6380 (see further below) - and another potential swing low which looks more respectable.

If I'd been in the long trade from around 6322 and hadn't already taken profits I'd be looking to protect some gains by shifting stop to around that 6380 level which is fib50% of the up move. Can always re-enter if a potential swing low does get confirmed. Some will have already closed out when we came back below today's open.

good trading

jon

Hi Jon

Good post"sss Jon, keep thread going its a good one,

Just a wee bit more if I may, them yanks (Dow are swing low violated and closed below tonight = they are Short term trend down and the other time frames are very ifffffffffffffyyyy as is the ftse, (not quite as bad) under 12 sma month 52 sma week and under lows to

Other indexs are still up

Ftse, your chart don"t show gap open Jon on 20-21st Dec, a gap thats not filled yet(few more hours should sort that unless unemployment numbers come in good in the am)

For those interested, I have averages SMA 52 and 14 sloping down to, Rsi 10 holding its 50 line @ 56:15 which is the only bright spot but he"s still pointing downwards.

Trade well all, and happy New Year

thanks for p&f charts tim errrr mine are looking similer tim.

Andy

andy

yeah, the LSE rules maintain no gap openings which a lot of providers still follow - including pro-real-time it seems. i haven't got round to replacing sharescope yet (who recognised gaps) since i got a bit fed up with them feeding all the goodies to the real time version and leaving eod a bit in the cold, so have to live with it for a bit.

hope the gap doesn't mean no-one could have got the 6322 entry i was talking about since i wasn't about on the day and i don't want to lead anyone up the garden path .

cheers

jon

Well that's a bit better, but not much.

New potential swing low today signalling a long entry around 6490 if it comes. Even the bold will only take half position though I would think - either as a new trade or as an addition to the first position (where the stop will be moved up).

I've decided to bite my chagrin with Sharescope and re-activate my account, so it should be back to normal charts soon. Couldn't find anything I liked better.

good trading

jon

Hi Jon

Good call and sensible advice to those not able to keep an eye on developements

No candle expert but

Its not good we have an engulfer of the whole area, I won"t mention my scalp short this morning its just to

errrrrrrrrrrr gaps been filled

Dows gone, if I could post chart I would, dont seem to copy and upload and splashed with broker rubbish adverts.

Basic out the bottom of point of a wedge days no R under for a bit and Swing trend down and confirmed. Disapline required = see if we get a nice 3 day rally to sell into next week

Ftse is still up but NOT I think cash 250 is down point. So its usual self = a head of its self or behind itself = nice range index

Andy

It triggered, but turned out as risky as it looked. The cautious (who wait for a close above the swinglow high) will be applauding their caution whilst the bold count the cost.

good trading

jon