Frustration with trading...

I must admit I do feel rather frustrated at hearing how well some traders are doing at the moment when I am lingering at +3% on capital for the year so far...! I either just don't have what it takes, in other words I don't have an edge! I do medium term equity trades both long and short using Mcllelan Osc/Sum as market timing signals, and I am currently sitting 50% long 50% short, wishing I wasn't quite so short! I am seriously thinking of changing to a long-only strategy... However, I feel as though I am continuously changing my strategy to a less riskier one until I find one that I can be profitable at, I think at this rate I am going to end up with buy-and-hold...and then maybe my 1% bank savings account!

sorry rant over!
got it out of me now...!

leonarda said:

I must admit I do feel rather frustrated at hearing how well some traders are doing at the moment when I am lingering at +3% on capital for the year so far...! I either just don't have what it takes, in other words I don't have an edge! I do medium term equity trades both long and short using Mcllelan Osc/Sum as market timing signals, and I am currently sitting 50% long 50% short, wishing I wasn't quite so short! I am seriously thinking of changing to a long-only strategy... However, I feel as though I am continuously changing my strategy to a less riskier one until I find one that I can be profitable at, I think at this rate I am going to end up with buy-and-hold...and then maybe my 1% bank savings account!

sorry rant over!
got it out of me now...!

Click to expand...

I wouldnt pay too much attention to what other pepple say they are achieving, especially on internet forums. Good luck

Take what your told on the forums, with a huge pinch of salt... + 3% on Capital for the year probably puts you in the top 5% on t2w... lol

jimbo22 said:

Take what your told on the forums, with a huge pinch of salt... + 3% on Capital for the year probably puts you in the top 5% on t2w... lol

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thanks, that does make me feel better, I hope you're right.

leonarda said:

I must admit I do feel rather frustrated at hearing how well some traders are doing at the moment when I am lingering at +3% on capital for the year so far...! I either just don't have what it takes, in other words I don't have an edge! I do medium term equity trades both long and short using Mcllelan Osc/Sum as market timing signals, and I am currently sitting 50% long 50% short, wishing I wasn't quite so short! I am seriously thinking of changing to a long-only strategy... However, I feel as though I am continuously changing my strategy to a less riskier one until I find one that I can be profitable at, I think at this rate I am going to end up with buy-and-hold...and then maybe my 1% bank savings account!

sorry rant over!
got it out of me now...!

Click to expand...

I'm not being funny but you are sitting 50% long and 50% short in a market that is rising relentlessly.

It seems to be that trying to trade low risk is hindering your performance.

You are not the first person I know that this has happened to and I doubt you will be the last.

What is very strange to me is that now, after this massive run up, you are considering changing to a long-only strategy. :-0

It depends what you want out of the market. If you want a nice safe investment for the future, then you seem to be shuffling along the path. But if you want to get extremely rich, you probably need to sort your risk management out.

trader_dante said:

I'm not being funny but you are sitting 50% long and 50% short in a market that is rising relentlessly.

It seems to be the fact that you are trying to trade low risk that is hindering your performance. You are not the first person I know that this has happened to and I doubt you will be the last.

What is very strange to me is that now, after this massive run up, you are considering changing to a long-only strategy. :-0

It depends what you want out of the market. If you want a nice safe investment for the future, then you seem to be on the path. But if you want to get rich, you need to sort your risk management out.

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well i'm not doing overly bad with my shorts at the moment, short trade performance:
-0.8 %
+10%
-1.5%
-0.5%
So that one good short is running very nicely, but I have had a couple of shorts already stop out! I started adding shorts when I got Mcllelan Osc zero line crossing signal 10 days ago and the summation index was topping out.

If I changed to long only I would not buy now, I would still use the Mcllelan market timing to enter. For the moment I am sticking with the shorts hoping for a "sell in May...", although I am a little wary of Election jitters...

If I can make a steady 20% on capital in a year I would be very happy, I haven't got the time nor energy to do anything more.

leonarda said:

well i'm not doing overly bad with my shorts at the moment, short trade performance:
-0.8 %
+10%
-1.5%
-0.5%
So that one good short is running very nicely, but I have had a couple of shorts already stop out! I started adding shorts when I got Mcllelan Osc zero line crossing signal 10 days ago and the summation index was topping out.

If I changed to long only I would not buy now, I would still use the Mcllelan market timing to enter. For the moment I am sticking with the shorts hoping for a "sell in May...", although I am a little wary of Election jitters...

If I can make a steady 20% on capital in a year I would be very happy, I haven't got the time nor energy to do anything more.

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Much easier to follow the trend. When the bulls are galloping north in a herd, why would you want to stand in their way or be going south? And if they are going north, but they may turn south one day, until then its a good idea to be going north.

Check out the Barclay hedge fund website (www.barclayhedge.com) if you need some moral support for your profit YTD. There are plenty of funds out there who are down YTD, in fact +3 pct probably puts you in the top quarter.

Nonetheless, this doesn't mean you shouldn't evaluate what you're doing. Your approach looks fairly mechanical so presumably you can backtest thoroughly .. this will give you an idea of what type of numbers to expect under given conditions.

meanreversion said:

Check out the Barclay hedge fund website (www.barclayhedge.com) if you need some moral support for your profit YTD. There are plenty of funds out there who are down YTD, in fact +3 pct probably puts you in the top quarter.

Nonetheless, this doesn't mean you shouldn't evaluate what you're doing. Your approach looks fairly mechanical so presumably you can backtest thoroughly .. this will give you an idea of what type of numbers to expect under given conditions.

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Thanks for the link, interesting.

I would love to be able to backtest, however my stock selection is fundamental analysis along with some TA to pick what I perceive as the best stock for the given market conditions at the time. So not ease to backtest...

In which case the only confidence you can gain is simply over time, by knowing after several years that you CAN make money. From this perspective it's tough to know at this stage if your system has positive expectancy.

zonebourse.com are 1% down on the year after producing 119% last year (without margin). They were up 10% but have lost it all. The markets are insipid at the moment, which is one reason I am out. The main reason is that I spent my trading fund on a new roof and now the Mrs wants a new bathroom.

I kinda feel your pain bro...I had big big expectations for this year and thus far it's been...well pretty 5hite tbh....I only trade forex and daily crude and the FX markets have not surrendered the kinda profits I'd hoped for based on my last years' performance..

I'm doing nothing different except aiming for less pips and more profit. Same edge, same MM, same appetite for risk...in fact as a trader I know I've really sharpened up some aspects but I'm way way behind my targets..

Not sure if it's the UK election, the mess that the EU/EURO is in...the fact that (IMHO) the incides; dow/s&p/FTSE/DAX have gone as far as they can without a major retrace...it's just all so flat. Weird thing is it *feels* as though some big algos are hoovering up all the spare change out of the fx markets as well as everything else and just not even allowing us to play with the crumbs...Maybe this time last year with the world not imploding and the trillions of extra units of currency pumped into the system the markets enjoyed a real sense of new money liberalisation?? Fook knows, but it feels very different to this time last year and without comparing it my charts are surely very different..in fact I might check that out...

Hey 3 % is not too bad--I know plenty that were up earlier and have lost most of it.( and a few that have creamed it) . Unless you have been long a while it would take a brave person to dive in here -this feels to me like its going to turn any day. Personally I`ve taken most of my profits out .
This market is way overheated again. IMO --could be massively wrong but can only trade how I feel.

There's definitely something brewing. Volatility now back to 2007 levels (VIX). Super-compressed ranges.. it's a case of being patient, keeping your powder dry and hanging on when it finally does move (i.e. don't get out of winners too quick).

I'm flat-ish for the year, but as Mark Douglas says in his book, "anything can happen".

Still a long way to go !!

Yeah 4 months into the year and up 3% is great IMO. Until I've been consistently profitable for several years I would be happy with breakeven as it keeps me in the game to continue to trade and learn from my experiences.

These markets are fr*cking boring rite now, altho careful what you wish for ..

Finally some sensible posts instead of the "2% every day is so easy" variety from people who have probably never placed a live trade in their whole lives.

It has been a tough year for me too. Not losing but not making big bucks either. Last year was a breeze in comparison. Very difficult to find trades given that the market has risen relentlesly for weeks with no pullbacks and low volatility. I've been testing the short side on a few things recently but I've had to get out a bit nippy.

Anyway standing aside IS taking a position and that's my main one at the moment.

There's another thread on the go out there where some nimrod is claiming that 10 pct a week is not that difficult .... yawn ..

Shanghai said:

Finally some sensible posts instead of the "2% every day is so easy" variety from people who have probably never placed a live trade in their whole lives.

It has been a tough year for me too. Not losing but not making big bucks either. Last year was a breeze in comparison. Very difficult to find trades given that the market has risen relentlesly for weeks with no pullbacks and low volatility. I've been testing the short side on a few things recently but I've had to get out a bit nippy.

Anyway standing aside IS taking a position and that's my main one at the moment.

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Yes definitely not easy this year...
I've just closed out another of my long running "longs" that was pulling back, i'm hoping that's an indication my "shorts" might turn positive soon...!

leonarda said:

I must admit I do feel rather frustrated at hearing how well some traders are doing at the moment when I am lingering at +3% on capital for the year so far...! I either just don't have what it takes, in other words I don't have an edge! I do medium term equity trades both long and short using Mcllelan Osc/Sum as market timing signals, and I am currently sitting 50% long 50% short, wishing I wasn't quite so short! I am seriously thinking of changing to a long-only strategy... However, I feel as though I am continuously changing my strategy to a less riskier one until I find one that I can be profitable at, I think at this rate I am going to end up with buy-and-hold...and then maybe my 1% bank savings account!

sorry rant over!
got it out of me now...!

Click to expand...

Listen mate,

Stop fannying around and get stuck right in to these markets. Take a method that is short sharp and to the f*cking point in terms of what the market does.

Winners, losers...take them all like a geezer, but make sure you don't get startled in the headlights....know what i mean?

Don't let your balls rule your head, but don't let your head disuade your true and honest commitment.

If you know it works, then f*ckin work it, drill it!

If you are not sure, stay the f*ck out. This is a game for people who know thier capabilities, not for some damp-eyed nancy theorist to try thier luck.

Hopefully, you'll get what i'm saying, if not you'll keep losing.