FX Trading May 28 - June 1

JillyB · May 27, 2007

Last week, whilst remaining within a downward channel, we saw the Cable test the upper resistance of the channel and finish the week only slightly below this upper level.

The question for the week ahead is will we see this down channel breached and a new upward channel formed in a bid to test 2.0000 again?

With a bank holiday tomorrow, the start of the week looks pretty quiet. However Wednesday will see the FOMC meeting minutes released and Friday will see the Non-Farm Payroll figures - so we could be in for some dramatic moves from Wednesday onwards.

JillyB · May 27, 2007

Come on you lot! Are you all on holiday??? Someboday talk to me

Trader333 · May 27, 2007

Hi Jilly,

I think you are right in that most people are probably on holiday. I will be looking to trade the CAD interest rate announcement and US Consumer Confidence (if there is a deviation from forecast) on Tuesday as well as those news releases you have already commented on.

Have a good evening

Paul

JillyB · May 27, 2007

Trader333 said:
Hi Jilly,

I think you are right in that most people are probably on holiday. I will be looking to trade the CAD interest rate announcement and US Consumer Confidence (if there is a deviation from forecast) on Tuesday as well as those news releases you have already commented on.

Have a good evening

Paul

Hi Paul,

Thanks for letting me know I'm not on my own here.

FWIW I'm looking to go short on the Cable tonight - I'm just waiting for my entry of 1.9843 to be hit and then I should be in for my usual overnight trade.

smbtnt · May 28, 2007

Hi Guys,

Still holding 2 shorts from Friday between 9870-9860 with 9800 as 1st target level. Any £ strength around 9750-9770 will prompt my longs to get triggered with one eye on last week's bullish outside bar.

Interesting week ahead, good luck all.

The Pearl Fisher · May 28, 2007

28 May 2007 00:24

Dollar v Yen current level: 121.77

Expect trading to be on the sluggish side for the first 24 hours or so. Looking at the JPY to be providing the bulk of the early action overnight. The early trading should see some waning of the Dollar resilience noted of late. Dollar v Yen levels are seen at sub 121.50 stops are set just above the current levels.

wasp · May 28, 2007

Inverted Head and shoulder

Not my thing these days but a butchers at the dailies sees a possible inverted H&S set up on the horizon if we press up from here...

oiltanker · May 28, 2007

trading holidays is usually not worth it in my view as you can get stuck in a tight range or perverse range in light markets? i don't expect much to happen today. it really can be gambling.

there is an article on the ft site how home trading has exploded in the last year. one guy even moved from the city to south africa and said he spent the weekend cage diving with sharks [which might be a good metaphor for trading] which beats life in a rainy london.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/5e947b3c-0b...uid=34c8a8a6-2f7b-11da-8b51-00000e2511c8.html

JillyB · May 28, 2007

JillyB said:
Hi Paul,

Thanks for letting me know I'm not on my own here.

FWIW I'm looking to go short on the Cable tonight - I'm just waiting for my entry of 1.9843 to be hit and then I should be in for my usual overnight trade.

Out now at 1.9832 for 8 pips. Like everyone says there is hardly any movement today, so I think I'll leave it until tonight.

trendie · May 28, 2007

JillyB said:
Out now at 1.9832 for 8 pips. Like everyone says there is hardly any movement today, so I think I'll leave it until tonight.

today will be pretty light, what with bank hols and all.
real action starts tomorrow.
(at least you made pips before breakfast - nice way to start the day)

Crap Buddist · May 28, 2007

Hi all, not trading today, off, but booting up my charts, see these levels 1.9825/30 buy zone, stops 1.9806 at this time as a max low zone, upside next few hours. or until volatility kicks in to the upside. early baths between 1.9850/60 . not a great range, but tis thin I guess.

Im offski, but id be long here

at this time.

The Pearl Fisher · May 28, 2007

The Pearl Fisher said:
28 May 2007 00:24

Dollar v Yen current level: 121.77

Expect trading to be on the sluggish side for the first 24 hours or so. Looking at the JPY to be providing the bulk of the early action overnight. The early trading should see some waning of the Dollar resilience noted of late. Dollar v Yen levels are seen at sub 121.50 stops are set just above the current levels.

28 May 2007 22:08

Yen: update

The Dollar/Yen traded as expected throughout the previous 24 hours or so. No surprises here. With the Asian open, expect progressive trading. Eyeing 121.50 from the 121.77 level. A breach will see a 121.30 exit overnight into early morning.

Dollar: Update

Dollar resilience seen on Thursday and Friday may be showing signs of exhaustion. The beginnings of a gradual weakening over the next couple of days looks possible across the currency majors. GBP could be set to test the 1.9900 key level. The Euro may be seeking out the 1.3550 levels.

JillyB · May 28, 2007

No trade for me tonight.

The lack of volume today makes it near impossible to place a high and low for the day, so I will wait until after tomorrows trading.

Atilla · May 28, 2007

JillyB said:
No trade for me tonight.

The lack of volume today makes it near impossible to place a high and low for the day, so I will wait until after tomorrows trading.

Hi everyone,

What a dreadful wet damp soggy Bank Holiday. Highlight of my break was getting back home from doing the shopping at Tescos... That's how good it has been. Glad it's all over.

My view on cable this week is that we are in for a dip on the first part of the week perhaps 1.9750 and then backup to to 1.99 and yonder.

Although we are at the top of a channel on the 4 hour charts and if it is followed looks like we may test 1.9650, I think 1.9850 - 1.9830 held quite well through out last week and thus can't see it falling much below 1.9750.

Also, articles I've read are talking about another interest rate rise by the BoE. I really think if they are worried about inflation they are likely to raise it around Sept time rather than waiting for their full 6 month period.

Good trading everyone.

Crap Buddist · May 28, 2007

Crap Buddist said:
Hi all, not trading today, off, but booting up my charts, see these levels 1.9825/30 buy zone, stops 1.9806 at this time as a max low zone, upside next few hours. or until volatility kicks in to the upside. early baths between 1.9850/60 . not a great range, but tis thin I guess.

Im offski, but id be long here at this time.

hmm, dire range anyone hang in there today ,going mad? As of this time pretty much as is, as above , maybe the asians can push it towards 50/60 , longs again from this 1.9830 zone ,stops the same.(06) See 1.9864 as a break point, sustained closes above this , bullish for test/ run for stops above 1.9880 and it could go mental going over 1.9900 .....

There you go ive covered 30 ,50,60,80,00 somethin should happen ?

genius.

In short, I still favour longs, the thing is, will anything happen overnight ? Well yeah ,could break 1.9800 huh ?

Thats it , im going off to smoke something...

The Pearl Fisher · May 29, 2007

The Pearl Fisher said:
28 May 2007 00:24

Dollar v Yen current level: 121.77

Expect trading to be on the sluggish side for the first 24 hours or so. Looking at the JPY to be providing the bulk of the early action overnight. The early trading should see some waning of the Dollar resilience noted of late. Dollar v Yen levels are seen at sub 121.50 stops are set just above the current levels.

28 May 2007 22:07

Yen: update

The Dollar/Yen traded as expected throughout the previous 24 hours or so. No surprises here. With the Asian open, expect progressive trading. Eyeing 121.50 from the 121.77 level. A breach will see a 121.30 exit overnight into early morning.

Dollar: Update

Dollar resilience seen on Thursday and Friday may be showing signs of exhaustion. The beginnings of a gradual weakening over the next couple of days looks possible across the currency majors. GBP could be set to test the 1.9900 key level. The Euro may be seeking out the 1.3550 levels.

29 May 2007 08:40

Yen update:

The Dollar/Yen performed precisely as expected overnight with an initial move down to the 121.50 level from the indicated sell area of 121.77 and the subsequent move lower still to the 121.20’s level. Position now closed.

Crap Buddist · May 29, 2007

Gone short 1.9852, stop 1.9868

oiltanker · May 29, 2007

can't see much obvious to trade will wait till lunch and look again

trendie · May 29, 2007

oiltanker said:
can't see much obvious to trade will wait till lunch and look again

agree - need to wait for the yanks to wake up and give some momentum for the coming week.

Crap Buddist · May 29, 2007

Stopped on that one. close above 64, seems to be panning out. I'll have to wait. But think it might run higher.

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