The American Meltdown

Salty Gibbon

Experienced member
Messages
1,535
Likes
6
I received a free publication in the post this morning entitled " The American Meltdown of 2005-2006" which predicted an enormous global economic disaster / crash / whatever in about 12 months time.

This was put out by Fleet Street Publications and Lord Rees Mogg ( or is it Ree Smog ? ) was named as one of their team's leading lights.

Does anyone know of this outfit and do they have any credibility ?
 
Its the usual "armageddon-is-around-the-corner-and-only-we-can-help-you" rubbish.

I get emails from Lou Dobbs, about the disaster around the corner.

Also something called "change-wave" - garbage.

Various others.

Mostly rubbish.
 
This stuff usually comes at market turning points - Im sure its just more manipulation by the powers that be to squeeze every last sucker out of the market so they can pick it up at a discount.

On the other hand, a country with an alcoholic, SIX times failed business man/moron as president could well be on the way to the cleaners! (just for the sake of objectivity)

Hmmm - could make it interesting for all you forex monkeys
 
William Rees-Mogg is the name you are looking for . He and James Dale Davidson have written a number of books on the same subject - the great reckoning , the sovereign individual are 2 that come to mind .

They are all on the basic global crash scenario , and well I think that there is nothing revolutionary about this . what I would agree is that the time is about ripe now , and it doesn't take a genius to work that out when you take a look at the wolrd we have now.

so yeah , I agree with the message , but nothing new there .

Also , these 2 are well connected to the NWO network , so whilst I think they are in the know , I wouldn't really trust their motives 100% .
 
Salty Gibbon said:
Does anyone know of this outfit and do they have any credibility ?

I haven't seen the stuff you refer to but I wouldn't write it off as total garbage too easily. They will certainly have an axe to grind - who the hell doesn't these days? - but ....

Just take a look at the US trade and budget deficits. They are both absolutely astronomical by an order of magnitude that dwarfs anything ever seen before - and rising!

Then consider who is financing them - Mainly developing Asian countries - particularly China and India - Not a lot of love lost there - just self- interest in importing jobs from the US and exporting manufactures - for the time being. For how much longer will they be happy to continue increasing their dollar holdings when the US seems happy to print them at a rate that bears no relationship to any measurable store of value whatsoever?

Then consider that 70% of US GDP is accounted for by consumer spending against a backdrop of consmer debt at levels (you've guessed it) - never been seen before - and rising.

All those problems affect other Western economies too - though on a smaller scale with the US the real World economy engine

Then consider oil. Supply inexhaustible?? Supply secure??. Priced correctly?? What is the REAL level of proven reserves ? (Think Shell) - can we REALLY believe all OPEC tell us on that subject? There is very credible evidence that the figure is dramatically optimistic to put it at its mildest.

It doesn't take genius to work out that rising makets and inflating bubbles based on historically cheap, secure and inexhaustible oil supplies cannot proceed much further without a pretty violent correction - just a question of timing and what the catalyst will be I guess.

I'm not a complete Jeremiah but I do reckon that the risks to what is presently a very fragile world economic recovery are pretty scary and I can't see a simle way through them other than "with one bound he was free" sort of thing. Not the soundest basis for investment decisions.

Traders with their eyes open and their ears to the ground should do OK though - just so long as they don't join in with the barkers and cheer leaders of the discredited buy-and-hold investment industry.
 
Peterpr

I agree entirely with what you say, debt can only rise for so long before consumer spending is forced to contract.

However many American (as with most other places) will vote based on how they feel financially, or so I have read. So I can't see Dubya and Greenspan allowing the American economy to implode a couple of months before the election.

I expect to see a final push north on the major indicies supported by soothing words from them two, to give him a realistic chance of a second term.

After the election, whether he gets in or not, I expect we will see that this last peak will be the pin that burst the bubble.

I'm not an ecnomist or political expert so don't maul me if I'm wrong............... just expressing my opinion :|
 
I think that if you look beyond the b/s pushed by the financial media and the garbage figures coming from the FED it becomes quite clear that there are going to be serious problems in 2005/6.
I expect they will continue to hold it together in the short term but the fed are backing themselves into a corner and eventually reality will catch up.
I am with Buffet on this one, he is for the first time in his investing career a large net short in the dollar.
 
Just a thought. Even if the US dosen't go into complete meltdown but a partial one where does the investment money go to.........Gold.

Yes I know its old fashioned and all the rest of it but compare a chart of the dollar value and gold value, they are like magnet opposites - they repel each other.

Regards

bracke
 
Yup I go along with everything said on here and yeah I do read the fleet street letter which includes a lot of thoughts from Rees Mogg, Bill Bonnet et all also find the website dailyreckoning.com interesting but then I come from a completely non financial background and find it all extremely interesteing.

I cannot see how the world can continue as it is financially with so many bubbles floating around, like all good Westham fans know one day they have to burst and die.

What I have also learnt in the short time I have been investing/betting is that no-one really knows whats going on look at all the differences in opinion least of all they guys who have to try and manage financial economies.

What I do know is that for every boom there is a bust and I'd say we were due one and not too far in the future - I think (and its a personal opinion) 2005 is going to be an extremely interesting year..............
 
Salty Gibbon said:
I received a free publication in the post this morning entitled " The American Meltdown of 2005-2006" which predicted an enormous global economic disaster / crash / whatever in about 12 months time.

This was put out by Fleet Street Publications and Lord Rees Mogg ( or is it Ree Smog ? ) was named as one of their team's leading lights.

Does anyone know of this outfit and do they have any credibility ?

For every bearish "the sky is falling" article our there there are 2-3 bullish "this is the best time ever to invest" articles. I suggest taking all of them with a grain of salt. Nobody can successfully predict future occurances in the market, economy, etc... If they could, they wouldn't be writing about it, they'd be lounging on a tropical island somewhere.

For example: Throughout the whole 1990s explosive bull market there were always these analysts coming on CNBC saying it'll be all over soon, the market will crash any day now. Finally it came down a few years ago and they all came back on saying "see I told you". Yeah you told us, but what about the past 7 or 8 years you told us that and the market kept going up. If you keep saying something long enough, it may eventually be true, but that doesn't make you right.

Basically, it's all a joke because nobody can predict any future market occurances with ANY degree of certainty. They can tell you it will go up or tell you it will down, either way they have a 50% likelyhood of being corrrect.
 
bigtimetrader makes a very good point there: the (random) chance of predicting if the market will go up or down in any year is 50%; so the chance of getting it right 5 years in a row is ~3%. Take a set of 100 market analysts who have been forecasting each year over the last 5 years if the market will go up or down, and, statistically, 3 of them would appear to be geniuses...

Alex
 
...remember the pundits who predicted property downturn....people have doubled their money in property AFTER their gloom and doom predictions....

take these with a...fist of salt...
 
It will never happen. Right now the market has bottomed. The "plunge prevention team" had the bullet bid in the spoo and spiders all day. The fed is buying GET LONG. Now I may sound nuts and I was trading in the CME and Cbot long enough to be nuts. But let me tell ya---having a upside bias in stocks and believing in conspiracy theories just plain works!!

Now that I have you laughing, think back, how many times has the stock market been flat on it's back (since 87') and miraculously made comeback. Stocks are legend for doing that. No commodity market has made comebacks like the US stock market.

Take it from Mr. Bear himself---me (Mortimer Doom, aka the "black duck"). Many times----many many many times, I have been short this market pattern and every time the damn thing runs up my backside.

I covered my shorts and took my profits this morning at 9:45 eastern time. I also went nicely long right when Anita the sweet floor broker for Goldman Sachs started doing her 50 lot jig in the Pit (big spoo). I have seen this many times ---little ones, many times.

Believe in Conspiracies ----they can make you wealthy. Esp. when Alan Greenspan puts the word out for everyone to start buying for the 00 accounts (it always starts with Anita from Goldman doing her 50 lot jig).
 
You kids may remember the Asian "CRISIS" 98'. The fascinating thing was what Hong Kong did. Do you remember? They bought there own stocks. That is a fact. Look it up. What surprised me was that they were so blatant and open in admitting it!

Where did the get the idea to buy their own stock in a big turn-down//meltdown? HMMM...
 
TGM said:
It will never happen. Right now the market has bottomed. The "plunge prevention team" had the bullet bid in the spoo and spiders all day. The fed is buying GET LONG. Now I may sound nuts and I was trading in the CME and Cbot long enough to be nuts. But let me tell ya---having a upside bias in stocks and believing in conspiracy theories just plain works!!

Believe in Conspiracies ----they can make you wealthy. Esp. when Alan Greenspan puts the word out for everyone to start buying for the 00 accounts (it always starts with Anita from Goldman doing her 50 lot jig).

I'm neither a bull nor a bear - just a realist - quite happy to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds if there's a turn to be made.

I'm quite a fan of the 'plunge prevention team' muself though. With an election looming, it's pretty damned obvious they will be beavering away at their brief right now. Like you say - it can pay to believe in conspiracy theories. But they're going to have their work cut out in anything other than the short term.

Fact is the fundamentals are heavily weighted against the bulls on anything longer than a 2-3 month view right now. Never mind the astonomical twin deficits or the historically overvalued stock market etc etc, Just have a look at what US insiders are doing with their equities - their actions speak volumes. This from Jay Taylor at http://www.howestreet.com/story.php?ArticleId=585&PHPSESSID=211431c51e1eac000e3c772194d31968

"Wave after wave after wave of insider selling and almost no insider buying is the pattern we see day after day as reported in The Wall Street Journal. CNBC won’t talk about it, but The Wall Street Journal publishes statistics provided by Thomson Financial. What the Journal publishes are the top ten insider buyers and top ten insider sellers each day. And then once per week they provide a summary for the week of the top ten sellers and top ten buyers.

For the last week in July, among the top ten, there was $143.6 million of insider sales vs. $35.6 million of insider purchases. However, the sales to purchases are much more lopsided than this, judging by the daily statistics because the cumulative magnitude of sellers to buyers is masked by picking only the top ten largest in both categories. For example, in reviewing the numbers for August 2, 2004, I see a total of $93.6 million of insider sales among the top ten sellers and only $1.6 million of insider buyers among the top ten buyers. That amounts to $58 sold for every dollar purchased. On a daily basis the ratios are from a low of around $10 sold for every $1 purchased, to a high of closer to $100 to $1."

Mugs in - insiders out - it was ever thus. ( Canny traders excepted of course who generally shouldn't give a damn either way).

As for bullish articles outnumbering bearish by 2-3 to 1. When was it ever any different? Name me a broker who does not make wads more money in a bull than a bear market. They are the barkers and cheerleaders of a largely discredited buy and hold investment industry. It is their people who pump out all that 'jam tomorrow' garbage day after day. what do you expect?

I'm not barking or cheering for either view, but when a 3-1+ majority are calling a bull market, it seems to me its near time to run for cover - looks a bit like p***ing into the wind to me.
 
If insiders make a net profit on their holdings they'll sell averagely higher than they buy, so the insider sell $m will be higher than the buy $m for equal volume. It won't cancel the difference but it'll diminish the skew you quoted somewhat.
 
A graph of this insider sell:buy ratio for a few years would be revealing - who has the historical numbers?
 
Here, here---

If you look at when this nonsense really started (mid to late 90's). Then take an "objective" look at who was around. Bob Rubin (sec. of Treasury), in my opinion, he perfected this nonsense. Allan Greenspan and Bobby (as I call him) turned the nonsense on its head in the Asian collapse of 98'. It became and has gotten out of hand. It simply puts off the inevitable for the "short term".

Sooner or later we will have the same amputations----unfortunately, there will be no anaesthetic. It is not if, but when.

For traders, it is always easier and more profitable ----to damn the riverbanks when it floods and not before.
 
add one more factor to the mix , US military power , the real guarantor of the USD is being challenged like never before . and it's just going to get worse , til the breaking point comes when the USD will plunge , followed by all currencies tied to it . then the global economies will follow suit and we will have a depression that will make 29 look like a sunday picnic.

we're gonna have fuuun . :)
 
Top