Yen has bottomed out

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
I came to this conclusion based purely on the currently news stories about the imminent collapse of the yen. Going by the charts, I think the yen is beginning to turn if not close to turning.

When they are trying hard to draft in the retail joes, I reckon the game is pretty much up. I'd be interested to sell on sharp rallies against the yen.
 

wackypete2

Legendary member
10,229 2,055
Bit risky, UJ and EJ trends are still up. However today's volatile action definitely shows indecision at these levels. Right now the quirk is that then yen is moving mostly on the jawboning of Japanese officials and not as much on any real fundamental data.

Peter
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
I just bought usd/jpy @ 93.00, sl 92.80 (now 92.93) so I hope not

The play will be to spike against the yen a few more times. When enough people are in the trap, the door will be closed. So there is plenty of time yet for you to go in and out while they saturate all news outlets. But I believe we are in the end game for the rally against the yen.
 

ffsear

Senior member
2,206 471
I agree, I have a bearish outlook too. But I will only get short once the market starts to go down.
 

TheLastBear

Active member
125 2
I came to this conclusion based purely on the currently news stories about the imminent collapse of the yen. Going by the charts, I think the yen is beginning to turn if not close to turning.

When they are trying hard to draft in the retail joes, I reckon the game is pretty much up. I'd be interested to sell on sharp rallies against the yen.

I disagree that it has bottomed out and believe there will be a few more spikes. On the technical chart the Yen should have stopped collapsing 500 pips ago. Given the fact that the deputy economic minister threw the 100 mark out there I think the BoJ will continue to interfere until we get closer to that level.

I try to stay away from trading the USDJPY, but if you do I recommend to keep your S/L tight if you use S/L, otherwise make sure you hedge your positions and don't allow your losses to run based on hope.
 

Billy Gates

Active member
161 14
What time frame or trading style would you apply that to?

I am long. I would expect some major resistance at around just below 95. Although this may be a substantial downturn for daytraders, i am still of the opinion :)-)) that the longer term trend is still strong on the upside.
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
The end game continues. Latest FT story is: Hedge funds reap billions on yen bets.

I think the idea is that people need to jump on board before they miss the boat.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
The play will be to spike against the yen a few more times. When enough people are in the trap, the door will be closed. So there is plenty of time yet for you to go in and out while they saturate all news outlets. But I believe we are in the end game for the rally against the yen.

I got the same idea, the JPY looks particularly strong against the EUR.
 

MacroStyle

Junior member
11 1
I think you have to short JPY via options at this point. Implieds are up a lot but below realised so gamma looks cheap. Also a lot of guys have RKO trades on due the pumped vols so you know the bank desks will gun for those barriers on the top side.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
The end game continues. Latest FT story is: Hedge funds reap billions on yen bets.

I think the idea is that people need to jump on board before they miss the boat.

Yen comes across as very oversold and appears to be accumulating. If it truly is gearing up for a run you can expect new lows before the reversal. Should snap with some volatility to the upside during accumulation. I realize these are all very vague speculations but it's just how I do.

Been making some pips on the Yen today.

Caught the USD / JPY crack a few minutes back.

Missed the EUR / JPY crack though. Sold too soon.

Still got a good bunch of pips though.
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
It was a piece in CNN that originally triggered this thread. The news offensive continues today on cnn why people should dump more yen while the big boys load up: "Japan remains mired in recession".
 

TheLastBear

Active member
125 2
What time frame or trading style would you apply that to?

I am long. I would expect some major resistance at around just below 95. Although this may be a substantial downturn for daytraders, i am still of the opinion :)-)) that the longer term trend is still strong on the upside.

My statement was based on the H4 chart and a trading strategy which is tailored to that time-frame. In general the Yen will witness some profit taking, but I believe we will see the 95 mark before March is over.
 

Thermal Ebb

Active member
100 15
There are currently a number of ‘currency wars’ in progress this is likely to increase in severity and scope, especially over the next couple of quarters. The Yen can only get cheaper in relative terms to another currency that does not also depreciate, so if one or more of the other majors are playing the same game, there will obviously be zero or at least negligible deltas on those currency pairs – but a great deal of volatility. This is why the smart money is on structured derivatives rather than outright directional trades for those currencies slugging it out.

What surprises me is that while there is a great deal of media coverage on BoJ under directives from the Japanese government to manipulate the Yen, and also of the Chinese doing exactly the same thing, very little makes it into the popular press of Jordan’s antics over at the SNB.

As for your implications of some grand design orchestrated by Invisible Hands for speculative purposes where the many are trapped by the few, the basic realities are far more mundane and boil down to the most fundamental of issues.

The question is largely moot as no single currency or country can be held as a control with respect to any other; they all move in a fluid embrace.
 

Thermal Ebb

Active member
100 15
I posted in this thread over 24 hours ago and received a message telling me my post would be reviewed by the moderators. Does it normally take this long for a post to be reviewed?
 
 
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