Dollar interest over the rest of the year

[forker]

For the last 3 months I have been following the USA economy closely in anticipation for recovery. The fed have disappointed markets with its hawkish stance without any meat on the bone. With usd being sold off a lot over the months as a result of rate hike disappointments, I came to the conclusion that it was oversold in context of the data points.
Japan has been delivering continuous disappointments with its data all while the currency has been subject to safe haven flows. The yen is one of those currencies that doesn't play nice with data points and the central bank is losing its credibility and ability to direct markets. The divergence of the US and Japanese economies in context to the usdjpy has opened up an opportunity. In early August I opened a series of bets, easing myself into a longer term position for the dollar to gain against the yen. The latest fed meeting and subsequent comments from Japan are the turning points in my opinion to set the scene for the dollar for the rest of the year.i am looking to take up to 1000 pips with possibly more on the table to offer (will likely lock in and see if I can squeeze more). Interest rate differentials is giving me a small rollover bonus every night.

Anyways, just thought I'd share a longer term trade with everyone.

My gradual entry into this position is:

101.11
100.50
100

 

[forker]

Job numbers yesterday was below the low estimate but I should point out that August is historically a low month for job numbers. Still bullish on the pair and closed a portion of the trade with a view to get back in on that portion on pullbacks.

 

[forker]

Article out tonight that the BOJ are considering deeper negative rates. Extension of their program was always a matter of when not if and this news, if proven to be true, will serve this trade well.

 

[forker]

New buy opportunity. I have opened new trades into this position. All yen moves have been speculative and fundamentally the economy is overvalued with data points being far less hawkish than the US economy. Just an FYI to anyone following this. The position I am holding is medium term (3 to 8 months)

 

[forker]

update:

Trade is on track and USA data is coming supportive of a rate hike. As i see it the trade is roughly half way to my target zone. So long as the data continues on this path then the trade should get there in the next 2-3 months.

 

[forker]

position has reached the halfway mark. I will start tapering the position when it reaches 107

 

[Atilla]

position has reached the halfway mark. I will start tapering the position when it reaches 107

fwiw - if Fed raises rates I see it testing 108-110s

 

[forker]

Hopefully. My only concern is the uncertainty around the elections and how that tends to drive yen. I think JP Morgan recently came out saying they believed 108 was on the cards.

Momentum in the USA has definitely been picking up since April and the most recent data is supporting a trend.

 

[forker]

trade is up over 700 pips (entered multiple additional trades on pullbacks including yesterday morning post Trump results.

 

[forker]

107 is the area i start tapering the position down removing half. I really want to target 109-110 as the final destination

 

[counter_violent]

107 is the area i start tapering the position down removing half. I really want to target 109-110 as the final destination

Above 107.50 will take out stops. Price has to go there imho.

 

[forker]

Above 107.50 will take out stops. Price has to go there imho.

I'm counting on it. The herd have started piling into the direction and momentum is building

 

[gerryg]

Watching this thread since Mid-September, awesome job, forker. Btw what is your risk setup, I mean risk per trade, lot size, etc.?
thanks.

 

[forker]

On a stag in Newcastle.... Will reply when I have sanity

 

[Atilla]

Hope you've found some sanity and had a g1.

I'm getting cold feet over your super trade now. Well done and a great call!

fwiw - I'm easing off on the probability Fed will raise rates in Dec.

 

[forker]

Watching this thread since Mid-September, awesome job, forker. Btw what is your risk setup, I mean risk per trade, lot size, etc.?
thanks.

It depends on the currency pair and the rollover spread for longer term trades. I will build up a position to to a standard lot size on multiple entries taking profit and getting back in those portions on pullbacks. Stop size depends on price level, obvious levels and volatility range and can be up to 150 pips away. I don't day trade like this however.

 

[forker]

Starting to peal off profit

 

[forker]

Hope you've found some sanity and had a g1.

I'm getting cold feet over your super trade now. Well done and a great call!

fwiw - I'm easing off on the probability Fed will raise rates in Dec.


[emoji106]

Getting there, 2 days, 5 hours sleep, drunk the whole time there. The rather odd observation was the endless stream of women walking around with nothing on and the onset of hypothermia. They would rather make themselves ill from cold so they can look good for the lads.


The trade has run its ground now so tapering off. I still think 109 to 110 but there is a ton of uncertainty over Trump and I think you are right regarding the fed. Will spend the rest of the week going over the data and start planning for the next runner.

 

[Atilla]

Getting there, 2 days, 5 hours sleep, drunk the whole time there. The rather odd observation was the endless stream of women walking around with nothing on and the onset of hypothermia. They would rather make themselves ill from cold so they can look good for the lads.


The trade has run its ground now so tapering off. I still think 109 to 110 but there is a ton of uncertainty over Trump and I think you are right regarding the fed. Will spend the rest of the week going over the data and start planning for the next runner.

Sounds good and I know what you mean hardy bunch, they are up North

Yields still rising and some penciling in higher inflation in coming months. Will they spend more considering budget deficits and give away tax cuts. I don't know anymore other than the Fed will be under another month of intense spot light.

Good watching your trade and thoughts in action.

 

[forker]

Pealing more off at 108.90. I have only a small portion left to see if I can stretch it to 109.50