Winning is Easy, Consistency is The Tricky Part.

Profitsniper007

Active member
107 2
Let me preface the story I am about to tell by saying DO NOT DO THIS.

Then let me repeat DO NOT DO THIS.

Me and one of my friends recently embarked on a trading challenge, a sort of trade war against each other.

We both loaded a new account with £500 and it is a race to £2000.

My friend sort of has the edge here, as while I have been trading longer, he has a total disregard for the money (he is a highly successful network marketer and makes massive residual incomes from a few businesses - each one more than enough to sustain his life style)

He got out the blocks fast, trading with insane risk and gaining almost £400 in under a week.

I am a highly competitive person that does not like losing, and especially not to this guy who would be sure to bring it up at every opportunity for the rest of time.

Fearing I was falling behind, I decided to start swinging for the fences and upped my lot sizes, it started OK, then the market hammered me and I dropped down to around £200.

On Thursday I decided to just go for broke, when the euro news hit and eurusd began to rally and eurjpy flew, I bought into both of them, rapidly putting my SL into breakeven and trading well, well outside any logical bankroll roll management.

Let me repeat DO NOT DO THIS.

I ran pretty good, gaining £170 or so in the EU session and then when the US news hit the market in the NY session I shorted USDCAD, I speculated that this news may be bad and since the USD has rallied - anyone any explanation for that move?? - in the couple hours before and price was at the 61% fib on the hour chart and previous structural day resis I went short as close as I could to the 61% fib, with SL just behind the 76%.

On the close of next hour the USD seemed obviously week and since the GBPUSD candle was so bullish, I bought that with big lots sizes.

I also shorted USDJPY and this used up all my available equity - I was all in.

Let me repeat DO NOT DO THIS.

I was on the right side and the NY session was a blood bath in the USD, and by mid Friday, I was almost 300% up on where I had been on the open of London.

Then, pushing my luck a bit too far, I lost one trade and that took away 1/4 of my balance (in maybe 15 mins, how awesome)

At that point I stopped trading, my friend had got on the wrong side of the USD move, being a pretty inexperienced trader, he thought that the USD was going "to the moon" and been buying into the diving dollar over and over, so I was back to being ahead.

I think new traders maybe can have experiences similar to this, in fact, one of the worst things that can happen to a new trader is probably them having some really nice wins.

"Oh, this is easy, I don't see what all the fuss is about, I should triple my trade sizes"

The fact that I gained so much is not the focus here, the focus is that what took me a lot of trades and several hours to gain, I lost 25% of that in 15 mins.

If I had continued to trade in this reckless manor, I would have lost everything.

Let me repeat DO NOT DO THIS.

Winning in forex can be pretty easy, you can get on the right side of a move and if there is a massive push in your direction, you can make a very significant win, but this is a double edges sword.

If it is possible to double your account in a day trading like a madman, it is even more possible to blow your account in couple hours.

My friend is living proof of this, since his account now sits under £100 - I think I will win by default since when market opens Monday, he will probably bust his account, then I will take as long as it takes to get to £2000 with no race on and win.

It is important to understand that trading is a game of patience. Your primary aim should be to protect your capital.

When you are in the markets, if you can't last - you can't win.
 
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member275544

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Let me preface the story I am about to tell by saying DO NOT DO THIS.

Then let me repeat DO NOT DO THIS.

Me and one of my friends recently embarked on a trading challenge, a sort of trade war against each other.

We both loaded a new account with £500 and it is a race to £2000.

My friend sort of has the edge here, as while I have been trading longer, he has a total disregard for the money (he is a highly successful network marketer and makes massive residual incomes from a few businesses - each one more than enough to sustain his life style)

He got out the blocks fast, trading with insane risk and gaining almost £400 in under a week.

I am a highly competitive person that does not like losing, and especially not to this guy who would be sure to bring it up at every opportunity for the rest of time.

Fearing I was falling behind, I decided to start swinging for the fences and upped my lot sizes, it started OK, then the market hammered me and I dropped down to around £200.

On Thursday I decided to just go for broke, when the euro news hit and eurusd began to rally and eurjpy flew, I bought into both of them, rapidly putting my SL into breakeven and trading well, well outside any logical bankroll roll management.

Let me repeat DO NOT DO THIS.

I ran pretty good, gaining £170 or so in the EU session and then when the US news hit the market in the NY session I shorted USDCAD, I speculated that this news may be bad and since the USD has rallied - anyone any explanation for that move?? - in the couple hours before and price was at the 61% fib on the hour chart and previous structural day resis I went short as close as I could to the 61% fib, with SL just behind the 76%.

On the close of next hour the USD seemed obviously week and since the GBPUSD candle was so bullish, I bought that with big lots sizes.

I also shorted USDJPY and this used up all my available equity - I was all in.

Let me repeat DO NOT DO THIS.

I was on the right side and the NY session was a blood bath in the USD, and by mid Friday, I was almost 300% up on where I had been on the open of London.

Then, pushing my luck a bit too far, I lost one trade and that took away 1/4 of my balance (in maybe 15 mins, how awesome)

At that point I stopped trading, my friend had got on the wrong side of the USD move, being a pretty inexperienced trader, he thought that the USD was going "to the moon" and been buying into the diving dollar over and over, so I was back to being ahead.

I think new traders maybe can have experiences similar to this, in fact, one of the worst things that can happen to a new trader is probably them having some really nice wins.

"Oh, this is easy, I don't see what all the fuss is about, I should triple my trade sizes"

The fact that I gained so much is not the focus here, the focus is that what took me a lot of trades and several hours to gain, I lost 25% of that in 15 mins.

If I had continued to trade in this reckless manor, I would have lost everything.

Let me repeat DO NOT DO THIS.

Winning in forex can be pretty easy, you can get on the right side of a move and if there is a massive push in your direction, you can make a very significant win, but this is a double edges sword.

If it is possible to double your account in a day trading like a madman, it is even more possible to blow your account in couple hours.

My friend is living proof of this, since his account now sits under £100 - I think I will win by default since when market opens Monday, he will probably bust his account, then I will take as long as it takes to get to £2000 with no race on and win.

It is important to understand that trading is a game of patience. Your primary aim should be to protect your capital.

When you are in the markets, if you can't last - you can't win.

as a coach myself, just not in trading..I find its more effective to get to the heart of the subject immediately. why take hundreds of words and a story just to say

"It is important to understand that trading is a game of patience. Your primary aim should be to protect your capital"
Less words has always been my motto..
i agree wholeheartedly that it is however..and has certainly been mentioned on many many threads.
 

Splitlink

Legendary member
10,850 1,233
as a coach myself, just not in trading..I find its more effective to get to the heart of the subject immediately. why take hundreds of words and a story just to say

"It is important to understand that trading is a game of patience. Your primary aim should be to protect your capital"
Less words has always been my motto..
i agree wholeheartedly that it is however..and has certainly been mentioned on many many threads.

As you say, this has been mentioned on many threads but it seems that it is not absorbed unless it is esperienced. Anecdotes are, quite often, more interesting than a few words. Jesus Christ taught with parables and look at how many followers He has.

Nevertheless, whether it is a few words, or many, it seems that bitter experience is the only kill or cure method that gets the lesson across.
 

Profitsniper007

Active member
107 2
=malaguti;2139880]as a coach myself, just not in trading..I find its more effective to get to the heart of the subject immediately. why take hundreds of words and a story just to say

"It is important to understand that trading is a game of patience. Your primary aim should be to protect your capital"
Less words has always been my motto..
i agree wholeheartedly that it is however..and has certainly been mentioned on many many threads.

Well opinions and methods vary.

Warren Buffet for example, who's success can be greatly attributed to his skills with people as well as in understanding the economics of a business, will often illustrate his point with stories.

As Spittlink says;

=Splitlink Anecdotes are, quite often, more interesting than a few words. Jesus Christ taught with parables and look at how many followers He has.

Sadly, I have observed that this part is also true. Often people often have to pay the price to learn a lesson that is repeatedly offered for free.

=Nevertheless, whether it is a few words, or many, it seems that bitter experience is the only kill or cure method that gets the lesson across.
 
M

member275544

0 0
Jesus Christ taught with parables and look at how many followers He has.

and look what happened to him!
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
When you are in the markets, if you can't last - you can't win.

One who can last for longer periods doesn't mean one can win/ be successful!.....the person with a larger account against someone with a demo account bears no difference.

Winning cannot happen on its own, being right consistently makes winning possible.....so what exactly is it that makes consistency?
 

Profitsniper007

Active member
107 2
One who can last for longer periods doesn't mean one can win/ be successful!.....the person with a larger account against someone with a demo account bears no difference.

Winning cannot happen on its own, being right consistently makes winning possible.....so what exactly is it that makes consistency?

One who can last for longer periods doesn't mean one can win/ be successful! -

Yes, I never said that you just have to stay in the game and magically will win. Just if you have no money to trade with, it does not matter how good a set up you, how well you would have traded it ... you can not


the person with a larger account against someone with a demo account bears no difference -

I don't quite understand this bit in this context - demo accounts are limitlessness redeemable and you can keep reloading and try to improve.

Winning cannot happen on its own, being right consistently makes winning possible.....so what exactly is it that makes consistency?

It is not essential to win consistently, if you are only risking 15 pips and going for 150, you have to win pretty rarely to be net profitable, and year on year you can gain with consistency (of course with some draw downs)

If you have a strategy coupled with a risk/reward ratio that gives a positive expectation - for example, if you can win 50% of trades at 2:1 ratio, you are going to win.

It is not hard to find a winning strategy.

For example, you can trade gartly patterns and expect to in over 70% of the time (generally accepted statistic) - if you trade this even at a 1:1 ratio, you can expect to gain consistency over the years, the odds are in favor.


Where people struggle, is FOLLOWING a strategy. Many people out there losing with winning strategies because they break the rules.
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
It is not essential to win consistently, if you are only risking 15 pips and going for 150, you have to win pretty rarely to be net profitable, and year on year you can gain with consistency (of course with some draw downs)

Where people struggle, is FOLLOWING a strategy. Many people out there losing with winning strategies because they break the rules.

It is very easy to suggest 15 pips loser against 150 pips winner as a strategy but I wonder if you could confirm that alone will provide you the consistency required?.....after all, why 150 and not 1500?

So are you saying by "following a strategy" will enable a trader to be successful?.....then every auto robot will be successful at trading?.....surely this "following a strategy" has a major flaw?.....and what exactly is this strategy?.....and how do you know if this "strategy" is going to win consistently?.....more importantly, who made up the so called "strategy"?

Do we have an understanding?.....Does strategy mean consistency?
 
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Profitsniper007

Active member
107 2
It is very easy to suggest 15 pips loser against 150 pips winner as a strategy but I wonder if you could confirm that alone will provide you the consistency required?.....after all, why 150 and not 1500?

So are you saying by "following a strategy" will enable a trader to be successful?.....then every auto robot will be successful at trading?.....surely this "following a strategy" has a major flaw?.....and what exactly is this strategy?.....and how do you know if this "strategy" is going to win consistently?.....more importantly, who made up the so called "strategy"?

Do we have an understanding?.....Does strategy mean consistency?

It is very easy to suggest 15 pips loser against 150 pips winner as a strategy but I wonder if you could confirm that alone will provide you the consistency required?.....after all, why 150 and not 1500?

So are you saying by "following a strategy" will enable a trader to be successful?.....then every auto robot will be successful at trading?.....surely this "following a strategy" has a major flaw?.....and what exactly is this strategy?.....and how do you know if this "strategy" is going to win consistently?.....more importantly, who made up the so called "strategy"?

Do we have an understanding?.....Does strategy mean consistency?

It is very easy to suggest 15 pips loser against 150 pips winner as a strategy but I wonder if you could confirm that alone will provide you the consistency required?

Yes, if you can work out a way to take trades with a 10:1 ratio and win 2/10, you have a positive expectation, and it makes no difference if it is 15/150, 150/1500 150k/1.5million. Or a 15:15000 and win 1/100. The numbers are not important, it is the ratio and the percentage of times you can win vrs losing.

I have friends who have had their strategies programed into EAs and are making money.

Some EAs do work, but people do not sell them. The ones being marketed are generally rubbish, from what I hear and read - I have no personal experience with them.

Banks trade using algos - fairly suggestive of them working if programed correctly.

"and what exactly is this strategy?"

I just gave you a example of a winning strategy.

If you trade gartly patterns at a 1:1 ratio or better, you have a positive expectation of winning.

This "so called strategy" was made up (or more accurately, observed and shared) by Gartly (rather famous guy), with various adaptations by other people.

Many other strategies developed by many other people, some famous, some unknown, quietly trading away and making money.
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
I asked the following: Does strategy mean consistency?
Then I get the following:
Profitsniper007 said:
Yes, if you can work out a way to take trades with a 10:1 ratio and win 2/10, you have a positive expectation, and it makes no difference if it is 15/150, 150/1500 150k/1.5million. Or a 15:15000 and win 1/100. The numbers are not important, it is the ratio and the percentage of times you can win vrs losing.
But there is the word "IF".....so clearly, it is a step towards the right direction of being right isn't it?

So from the above, we can now conclude that there are both losing and winning strategies.
So it is also fair to say that consistency comes from a "winning strategy" and not from a losing/any strategy.....which is where some of the EAs end up as you have suggested.

Ok.....so what makes a winning strategy?.....and what is this "gartly patterns" thing?
 

Profitsniper007

Active member
107 2
I asked the following: Does strategy mean consistency?
Then I get the following:

But there is the word "IF".....so clearly, it is a step towards the right direction of being right isn't it?

So from the above, we can now conclude that there are both losing and winning strategies.
So it is also fair to say that consistency comes from a "winning strategy" and not from a losing/any strategy.....which is where some of the EAs end up as you have suggested.

Ok.....so what makes a winning strategy?.....and what is this "gartly patterns" thing?

"So from the above, we can now conclude that there are both losing and winning strategies."

This is what I said, so from the beginning, we could have concluded there were winning and losing strategies - otherwise, the word "winning" would have been redundant.

"Where people struggle, is FOLLOWING a strategy. Many people out there losing with winning strategies because they break the rules. "

Gartly pattern is a chart pattern. If you want me to teach you it skypre me on "profitsniper"
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
This is what I said, so from the beginning, we could have concluded there were winning and losing strategies - otherwise, the word "winning" would have been redundant.

But winning cannot exist on its own.....it depends on the winning strategy itself.....so once again, what makes a winning strategy?

"Winning is Easy, Consistency (Strategy) is the Tricky Part"....."Strategy"
 

Profitsniper007

Active member
107 2
But winning cannot exist on its own.....it depends on the winning strategy itself.....so once again, what makes a winning strategy?

"Winning is Easy, Consistency (Strategy) is the Tricky Part"....."Strategy"

I feel like I am just repeating myself over and over now.

A winning strategy, a strategy with positive expectancy is one where you can quantify that set up will work a certain percentage of the time with a risk/reward that will make that profitable.

Which part of that is unclear?
 
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