These things can be hard to trade because sometimes what you think will happen won't.
For example, in the book by the fella I can't recall (who wrote about working for Salamon Brothers in the late 80s) he said an interesting thing. They were always trying to work out what would happen to the markets if big events happened.
And one of those was the massive Tokyo earthquake which happens about once every 100 years (and right now it's about 20 overdue). Most people would think that Japanese stocks would get crushed but they thought the opposite as all risk had been hedged outside of the country, ie Western Insurance companies will have to pay up, not Japanese.
Whether or not that's true I don't know but interesting nevertheless.