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HaloTrader
Established member
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Sorry just posting this here for future reference...
Support and resistance...
1 hour S&P500 resistance line and support line... Long or short on breakout or bounce... Judged by price action at the bar... Momentum and a close higher = Buy... A reversal bar, short. Indecision, price consolidation... Play the bounce after three consecutive down closes on the 3minute... Or wait for standard deviation to increase and price to increase above consolidation (Use bollinger band difference strategy for entry in this case)
Sorry about that.
Support and resistance...
1 hour S&P500 resistance line and support line... Long or short on breakout or bounce... Judged by price action at the bar... Momentum and a close higher = Buy... A reversal bar, short. Indecision, price consolidation... Play the bounce after three consecutive down closes on the 3minute... Or wait for standard deviation to increase and price to increase above consolidation (Use bollinger band difference strategy for entry in this case)
Sorry about that.
hmmm, why would you even want to think like that?
If you are trading like that I assume that you are dressed in a loincloth and carrying a club while jabbering away at your flinstone like computer screen in your humble abode somewhere in Bedrock city.
This is how you do it http://www.tradeonauto.com/blog
If you are trading like that I assume that you are dressed in a loincloth and carrying a club while jabbering away at your flinstone like computer screen in your humble abode somewhere in Bedrock city.
This is how you do it http://www.tradeonauto.com/blog
hmmm, why would you even want to think like that?
If you are trading like that I assume that you are dressed in a loincloth and carrying a club while jabbering away at your flinstone like computer screen in your humble abode somewhere in Bedrock city.
This is how you do it http://www.tradeonauto.com/blog
You can get all the tools to trade yourself with your own ideas by going to www.QTinfo.com
Not to mention you can raise your brokerage rates by calling your customers and keeping them updated with all of your opinions immediately with one call by using their AMI. Thats what I used before I left brokerage.
The fundamentals for wheat, and all other domestic grains are not very good. Ending stocks per the last USDA report were up, meaning that there is a lot of grain currently stored in grain elevators. Combine that with a report that came out indicating that current grain planted is at 65% good to excellent condition and that weather in the coming weeks will be very condusive to new plantings and grain prices appear to have even more room to the downside. Finally, and most importantly, the dollar is up... typical buyers of US wheat such as Japan, Egypt, Pakistan, etc are not inclined to buy U.S wheat because the price in relative terms is too high. Milling quality wheat traded on Liffe Paris has been seeing increased open interest from what I have noticed.
Now here's the kicker though. There is a record short position in grains held by speculators, and as evidenced to some degree during Monday and Tuesday of last week, these specs are growing increasingly more cautious, especially as we go into the more volatile growing season. The possibility of a short term squeeze could send wheat's price well over $5.00 in the short term shoudl 80,000 contracts suddently be squeezed. Not to mention that there is proably some option pin risk on the expiring May contract that oculd pull prices to either $5.00 or $4.50 as we ear expiration. Between now and then my bet would be range bound between those levels, but weary of a possibile short squeeze.
Now here's the kicker though. There is a record short position in grains held by speculators, and as evidenced to some degree during Monday and Tuesday of last week, these specs are growing increasingly more cautious, especially as we go into the more volatile growing season. The possibility of a short term squeeze could send wheat's price well over $5.00 in the short term shoudl 80,000 contracts suddently be squeezed. Not to mention that there is proably some option pin risk on the expiring May contract that oculd pull prices to either $5.00 or $4.50 as we ear expiration. Between now and then my bet would be range bound between those levels, but weary of a possibile short squeeze.
traderkenny
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Following grain markets Wheat today at support. Will prices break down?
can you give exactly which day? b/c the price changes frequently. so, it will better to give me a exactly which point you want to mention.
sdunlimited
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Now here's the kicker though. There is a record short position in grains held by speculators, and as evidenced to some degree during Monday and Tuesday of last week, these specs are growing increasingly more cautious, especially as we go into the more volatile growing season. The possibility of a short term squeeze could send wheat's price well over $5.00 in the short term shoudl 80,000 contracts suddently be squeezed. Not to mention that there is proably some option pin risk on the expiring May contract that oculd pull prices to either $5.00 or $4.50 as we ear expiration. Between now and then my bet would be range bound between those levels, but weary of a possibile short squeeze.
Could you please help explain this to me a little better? I've been searching to find addt'l info regarding the tendency to pin a commodities price based on option expiration but am not finding much.
If I'm trading the actual commodity (in this case, say I'm long May wheat futures), what information should I be concerned with regarding the options on May wheat? How would I gauge the possible direction of price movement to the contract based that option information?
I have seen posts from folks who claim that by looking at volume and/or open interest the morning of expiration they can reasonably predict where the underlying contract will end up at expiry. I have heard this enough where I'm inclined to think it's true but I don't know what to look for to attempt to confirm this. Any direction on this would be appreciated.
Watching volume closely in wheat today - it'll be interesting to see where things go next week based on todays close...
Thanks for your time~
Well, lets see now: India is exporting wheat for the first time EVER!, Brazil with record havest to export, Australia with 10 year drought broken. I wonder where the price of wheat has been going, and where its headed?
down obviously. No elephant stamp forguessing why there are alarge number of shorts over the mkt.
Though these events form teh baseof how you should approach wheat, what may be better is to forget fundamentals and trade wheat as you would do anything else - on the basis of what you see unfolding, not inane speculation with capital hung out to dry.
tradeonauto can show you how todo it if you are really interested! Do a search on the web. 100% in three months with all trades posted daily? It cant be beat.
down obviously. No elephant stamp forguessing why there are alarge number of shorts over the mkt.
Though these events form teh baseof how you should approach wheat, what may be better is to forget fundamentals and trade wheat as you would do anything else - on the basis of what you see unfolding, not inane speculation with capital hung out to dry.
tradeonauto can show you how todo it if you are really interested! Do a search on the web. 100% in three months with all trades posted daily? It cant be beat.
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