Liffe Wheat (uk)

DaveT

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An item today on BBC News shows the UK wheat crop (and other crops) suffering from the excessive rainfall. Harvest Delays and rotting crops nationwide.

Estimates are for 20% of the UK wheat crop damaged (or cut?)

London LIFFE WHEAT prices have been falling this summer on lack of heat stress (and spillover from declines in world grain prices?)

Is it time to buy?

Does anybody trade this market? (I am not currently in this market)

Here is the NOV LONDON WHEAT chart :
 

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Correct me if wrong but I have always assumed that wheat is essentially a global commodity. Using ballpark numbers it seems that Chicago wheat trades at roughly same levels as Nov Liffe Wheat. I believe conversion is as follows:

1 metric tonne = 36.7437 bushels of wheat, therefore Liffe wheat in USD and bushel equyivalents would be:

(£66 x 1.813 ) / 36.7437 = $3.26 which is near WZ4 which trades at 328.75cts

Back from vacation, i still try to find my way in markets. Still not convinced about the long term prospects in the grains. They are seasonally strong this time of year, which possibly explains the bounce. Any good setups out there? Or, am i missing all the action of today? Better safe than sorry, is my motto for today.
 
Bgold -

I follow your logic re. conversion, but fundamentally, are they (CBOT and LIFFE wheat) not two different markets?

Take a look at the monthy chart of both markets (below). Quite different at times.

For instance, CBOT wheat rallied sharply in 2002 on world crop concerns (esp. Austrailia), whereas LIFFE Wheat traded largely sideways.

LIFFE Wheat rallied sharply in 2003 on UK and European weather (heat waves) which decimated the European Crops.

So does LIFFE wheat not factor in UK and European Supply/Demand, and CBOT Wheat follows world Supply/Demand, from a fundamental standpoint?

As for the CBOT grains, a firm double bottom in Corn, confirmed today, $1.00 gains in Soyoil and back over $6.00 November Beans.
Can't speak for the Soys, but I am positive Corn has bottomed and will rally into the September Supply/Demand Report (around Sept 12th). This next report could well lower the production estimate , given the new trend of lower crop ratings over the last 2-3 weeks. (Latest out tonight). My other recent threads deal with that scenario.

(My March 250 Corn calls were bought at 11, now around 16. )

Here are the Wheat Monthly charts , what do you see?
 

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You cannot compare Eu and US wheat since they do not price into the same market. You cannot import US wheat into Europe as there are large levies on energy feeds coming into EU. The only way to price UK wheat on a value basis is against continental, generally French, wheat which can be transshipped from continent with a freight spread to the East coast. Only grains that price into EU are Soy products as they are required to build up protein content in EU animal feeds and are imported either as beans and crushed on continent or as the crushed meal.
Looking at all grains right now it seems Soymeal is he best bet as the forward curve is historically fairly flat and actually backwadated to Dec04. Best value is probably offered by Jan or Mar05 contract.
 
Thanks Twalker for your fundamental insight.

So do you think LIFFE Wheat prices will be affected (ie. rise) if the UK crop is substantially affected by these excessive rains this year?
 
Check out the volumes in Liffe wheat before you get involved. It used to be illiquid with only a few players.
 
Without doubt if the crop cannot come in there will be a substantial pricing effect certainly on the old crop/new crop spread. I do not follow UK grain fundamentals so cannot comment on flat price but imagine that the yields are pretty good this year with the weather we have had. I would certainly heed Oatmans comments regarding liquidity on Liffe, it is a hedgers market and not a lot of spec volume goes through. for spec I would personally stick with Chicago.
 
DaveT said:
Bgold -

I follow your logic re. conversion, but fundamentally, are they (CBOT and LIFFE wheat) not two different markets?

Take a look at the monthy chart of both markets (below). Quite different at times.

For instance, CBOT wheat rallied sharply in 2002 on world crop concerns (esp. Austrailia), whereas LIFFE Wheat traded largely sideways.

LIFFE Wheat rallied sharply in 2003 on UK and European weather (heat waves) which decimated the European Crops.

So does LIFFE wheat not factor in UK and European Supply/Demand, and CBOT Wheat follows world Supply/Demand, from a fundamental standpoint?

As for the CBOT grains, a firm double bottom in Corn, confirmed today, $1.00 gains in Soyoil and back over $6.00 November Beans.
Can't speak for the Soys, but I am positive Corn has bottomed and will rally into the September Supply/Demand Report (around Sept 12th). This next report could well lower the production estimate , given the new trend of lower crop ratings over the last 2-3 weeks. (Latest out tonight). My other recent threads deal with that scenario.

(My March 250 Corn calls were bought at 11, now around 16. )

Here are the Wheat Monthly charts , what do you see?

Great feedback from you all. Very educational on the wheat complex. While I now realise that UK and US wheat trade of different fundamentals, I would be curious to see the Liffe chart rebased to USD. In fact, one should probably rebvase to euro's considering the French competition. The difference may be less pronounced than the charts in their base currencies appear to be.

I think I'll take Twalker and oatman's advice and stay clear of the LIFFE market. It seems that the UK market is also heavily manipulated by the large commercials screwing the farmers by getting prices to seasonals lows near the harvest. See on your chart how each year the seasonal lows are around August.

Anyway, my farmer friends are once again crying. No new Range Rovers this year!!
 
BGold -

Re. LIFFE Wheat -

I agree it is likely to be quite an illiquid market, and acknowledge your seasonal observation of lows being put in around August in most years.

Perhaps a market to trade only if a substantial move was likely,( and orders would most likely be worked above a certain level, esp with SB - IG minimum bet is £100/pt)

An interesting discussion nonetheless.
 
The lows will always be in August because that is when the new crop comes in. It is important with the grain complex to look at the forward market structure as it will trade a backwardation between old crop new crop and then a carry out to the next crop. Question is what is the carry. A non-adjusted continuous contract is not a great deal of use as it will disguise a carry that you will have to pay when you rollover.
When the commercials are pricing their physicals they will look to hedge out forward to obtain this carry if it makes economic sense (i.e. above storage, basis and interest cost on capital). By the nature of their business they are always bullspread.
 
News item on Futuresource today :

UK Wheat crop could lose wheat quality : (due to excessive moisture)


DJ U.K. Wheat Crop Could Lose Milling Wheat Quality - Grainfarmers

(Repeating)

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Quality tests over the weekend show a drop of over
100 Hagberg points in the U.K. wheat crop, meaning that over half of the crop
could be below milling wheat quality for the 2004 harvest, U.K. agribusiness
group Grainfarmers said Wednesday.
"Worst hit are crops north of a line from Cambridge to Bedford and
Birmingham (central England). Wheat quality has fallen and is set to
deteriorate further as rain is forecast for the remainder of this week," said
Grainfarmers' wheat director, Gary Sharkey, in a statement.
The group markets roughly 20% of the U.K.'s grain crop and represents
6.17 million hectares.
Sharkey said that farmers have harvested between 20% to 25% of the crop
in those areas and from Yorkshire (northern England) northwards, less than
one field in five has been cut. In Kent and Essex (southern England), roughly
65% have been cut, he said.
Growers are also using every opportunity to get their wheat in the barn,
with some combining crops at 23% to 25% moisture. In this situation, it could
take up to two months to dry down to a marketable moisture. Growers must also
be aware of potential mycotoxin issues, Sharkey said.
Worst hit Group 1 variety appears to be Hereward, which traditionally
loses Hagberg values quicker than Malacca, Grainfarmers said. However, the
Group 2's Solstice, Einstein and Cordiale have performed reasonably well to
date. Those with Cordiale have benefited from early ripening, 4-5 days
behind their Soissons, enabling them to capture a degree of quality, they
said.
The Group 1 premium is around GBP20 per metric ton, they said.
"We could be looking at imports of around 1.1 million to 1.2 million tons
this year in order to satisfy the 5.2 million tons U.K. millers need,"
Sharkey said.
Spot demand for crops harvested in the southern counties have been good,
however, with calls for exports heading to Ireland, the Netherlands and
Germany, he said.
"Mediterranean countries have also taken U.K. grain as they wait for
delayed Black Sea wheat to arrive, but this could dry up over the next 10
days," he said.
Grainfarmers estimates that the U.K. crop could be as high as 16 million
tons, based on current yield levels, but will more likely be closer to 15.2
million tons.

-By Meghan Sapp; Dow Jones Newswires; (4420) 7842 9415;
[email protected]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

FSN48465 ACT TOP
2004-08-25 12:41:53 UTC
 
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